Americans make push for a 3rd Olympic Spot

Triathlon Forum
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The Americans are making a major push towards the Olympics this weekend at the Guatape, Colombia World Cup. They have a whopping 10 men on the start list, including 9 of the top 13 Americans on the ITU Points List. The 10th American and wearing #61 on the start list, is 2004 Olympian Andy Potts. These men are battling to earn their own start at the May San Diego WCS where a top 9 finish will earn them a Olympic spot. Additionally Manny Huerta is racing to earn the Americans a third spot. Currently, the American men have just 2 spots. If they don’t earn a third it will be the first time the country doesn’t bring the maximum 6 athletes to the Games.

Manny Huerta, currently ranked 56 on the Olympic Qualification list, is trying to wrestle a third spot for himself and the American squad. Only 8 countries are allotted the max 3 spots. America is currently 10th on that list. If Huerta is to earn the Americans a third spot he would have to leap frog Canada’s Kyle Jones (ranked 47th) and then dislodge a third ranked athlete from one of the top 8 counties. This will prove to be a very difficult task as the lowest ranked 3rd athlete is Russia Ivan Vasiliev (36th) and many countries (including Russia) have a 4th ranked athlete still very high on the qualification list.

The one glisten of hope for the Americans is a technicality in the qualification system. New Zealander Kris Gemmell, winner of the 2011 Oceania Continental Championship, currently has a guaranteed spot for his country despite being ranked 53rd. In actuality New Zealand has only 2 guaranteed spots held down by Ryan Sissons and Bevan Docherty. For New Zealand to have a 3rd guaranteed spot they would need one of their countrymen, who is not Sissons or Docherty, to beat the Australians at the 2012 Oceania Continental Championship in March.

But of course to add another wrinkle to the process, should a New Zealander not win the Oceania Continental Championship they can still qualify a third athlete the traditional way. Gemmell is ranked 53rd (3 places higher than Huerta) and he is backed up by Clark Ellice (55th), Tony Dodds (59th) and James Elvery (68th)

Now of course it doesn’t have to be Huerta to win a third spot for the Americans but he is the most likely. Hunter Kemper is actually ranked 2 places higher than Huerta but Kemper recently broke his elbow and it is unknown if Kemper is able or willing to put in the work globe trotting to earn a 3rd American spot (it is of my opinion that Kemper can best serve himself by focusing on being top 9 at San Diego). Other American such as Greg Bennett (90th) and Steve Sexton (101st) are to far down to have a realistic shot at qualifying.

So in order for the Americans to get that 3rd spot they need an Australian to win the Oceania Continental Championship in March and also Manny Huerta has to have superior results to Kyle Jones, Kris Gemmell, Clark Ellice and Toddy Dodds among others over the next 7 months.

Mr ITU’s projection: Not likely but not worth giving up on getting a 3rd spot

Now on to the American’s spots they actually have - and this is where Andy Potts comes in. The top 2 Americans (if first 9 overall) at the San Diego WCS will be going to the 2012 Olympics. But in order to get to London you first have to get to San Diego. The top 8 Americans will be invited to that race. Currently that is Chrabot, Shoemaker, Kemper, Huerta, Brown, Collington, Collins and Fretta. That list is highly fungible as there isn’t much difference between athletes ranked #5 to 14 and a couple good months of racing can take an American from 15th ranked to 5th ranked without issue.

So whats up with Potts? Potts must see that an opportunity has opened up for him. It is completely in reason to think that Potts can race himself to a top 8 American rank with a series of good races. Once he gets on the start list for San Diego he has an equal of a shot as anybody else of qualifying. Its plausible that Matty Reed takes this route too as the door to qualification is open for his 6’5’’ frame.

So now the race is on within the American camp to be the top 8 among themselves. Guys like Potts, Billington, Fleischmann and Sexton are fighting to get in the top 8 while others like Brown, Collington and Collins would be racing to stay in the top 8. Shoemaker, Chrabot, Huerta and Kemper can be reasonably assured that thanks to their current high ranking, just a few good races will carry them to San Diego. Lastly, up and comers like Kaleb Van Ort and Joe Maloy are likely too far down the list to get any decent starts to even have a chance to work themselves up. (Unless Van Ort can prove he is a insane runner- think Gwen Jorgensen). Gosh thats complex!

So in short here is the Mr. ITU projection;
-Americans end up with 2 spots
-They get 8 men on the San Diego start list;
-Chrabot, Shoemaker, Kemper, Huerta, Potts, Brown, Collington, Collins start
-None are top 9
-Shoemaker and Chrabot earn discretionary selection, while Kemper is left out in heartbreaking fashion

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so what’s the way forward, here? i assume it’s in USA’s best interest, overall, to have 3 spots instead of 2. so should some of the lower-ranked US athletes ‘take one for the team’ (or have USA Tri pay them!) and go domestique for one or more of the likely ‘thirds’? i know of at least 1 other country that’s taken this approach - basically a few friendly athletes deciding to help a fellow racer earn a few points to make the cutoff.

also, does the USA have any kind of ‘team strategy’ for who they want in the race? do they send a cohesive ‘team,’ or just 3 individuals? potts, for instance, is an incredible athlete, but at london his main threat, i think, would be as a lead-out man for the swim-bike.

-mike

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Should be very interesting to watch.

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Great and really interesting analysis. Keep up the good work

Potts is an intruiging situation. Will be very interested to see how he goes

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I think my head just exploded
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I think my head just exploded

This… I just coach them…

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3 spots is pretty unlikely at this point. Their best shot was last weekend at the Pan Am games (winner gets an automatic spot). Fretta and Chrabot were domestique-ing for Manny Huerta. Together they did an amazing job and Huerta won the silver. Unfortunately only the winner gets the guaranteed spot and Brazil got that. I don’t think its fair for America to parade Huerta around trying for a 3rd spot with chances so slim, and I don’t think they are taking that approach. (He’d have to beat out several other higher ranked thirds).

That was the last serious chance to use team tactics. Now, I’d expect their to be a free for all among the Americans trying to make a San Diego start. Most would have to elevate themselves higher on the ITU point list to get that start. In terms of the Olympics I don’t really see the point of having one athlete ‘work’ for another. It’s not going to bring them any closer to Gomez and the Brownlees.

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great preview. thanks for doing that.

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I’m thinking shoemaker will be left off the team. IMO he had a pretty poor season this year. I think the other top 3, huerta, kemper and charbot are leagues ahead of him especially given his results last year.

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Interestined read. The NZ 3rd spot due to the Oceania cup means nothing really as it was earned outside the 2nd Olympics qualifying year (1st June 2011-31st May 2012) and can be easily overturned as pointed out by you by an Aussie winning it in March. The fact that it will be lost if Sissons or Docherty wins was new news to me.

On the idea of Potts attempting to get personal points he has on his website that he’s also racing ITU WC Auckland in 3 weeks time on the same day as he says he’s doing IMAZ but he’s on neither start list as far as I can see. I personally am hoping he does come to Auckland as I’d love to see him spicing up our race.

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Interesting take. Thanks for putting it together Sal. Enjoyed reading it. Hoping for three, obviously, as I am sure you are as well.

I wouldn’t put long odds on Huerta leaprfrogging Gemmell… he’s just a much better racer (currently).

But I think that Kemper and Potts can make a big impact in the lead up to London. I think you’ll see both of them on the team. Whether it’s three or two spots…

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ITU points system is really complicated, that’s why it was so important that Huerta or Fretta win for the USA last week (and Fretta was going to domestique the swim and bike with Charbot as well) at Pan Am’s. Great team tactics, and it would have been interesting to see if Kemper could have gone for the US. Manny did great for being a last min sub.

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I don’t understand why Huerta got to be the golden boy at the Pan Am games when he only got there in the first place by taking over Kemper’s spot. It seems like he went from 4th to 1st…is it because he has the run to seal the deal, but needs help on the swim and bike to be successful?

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I don’t understand why Huerta got to be the golden boy at the Pan Am games when he only got there in the first place by taking over Kemper’s spot. It seems like he went from 4th to 1st…is it because he has the run to seal the deal, but needs help on the swim and bike to be successful?

Because Charbot was too high up on the ITU points list. Fretta was domestiquing for whoever USAT was designating as the “A” guy (which was Kemper before the injury). In essence, Charbot could have won the race and it wouldnt have mattered. It simply would have blocked the Canadians from getting the 3rd spot (brazil I think is way too far down to get 3 team spots as well). So the golden boy went to Huerta because it was only he or Fretta who could get the 3rd gurantee spot based on their ITU point slotted standings.

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US will be in a disadvantaged position at the Olympics without the team count of some of the other nations…this has truly become a team sport. Potts realizes the opportunity is there, and there is NOTHING like representing your country at the biggest sporting event (not triathlon, sporting event) around. I think it’s a great move and opportunity: he has the speed in the water, he’ll be able to draft on the bike to get in lead group, and he’s no slouch on the run, just doesn’t have the top end to be under 30 mins. He did win PanAm’s…and he’ll have a great base!

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Excellent read, please keep this up
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interesting take.

big matty reed

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one of the best triathlon commentaries on the internet; always interesting and informative
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prediction:

Huerta

and if Van Ort could get into the swim pack at San Diego (if he were allowed to start) I think he could be top 9
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i’m totally with your train of thought on this. absolutely spot on. it’s funny because i was having this discussion with my girlfriend over dinner (yes, we talk about ITU over dinner) a few nights ago and pointed out the team/domestique thing if they could get three in. let potts crush the swim, pull hard on the bike with chrabot, and let the best runner of the three (assuming we can pull a 3rd spot) run like the cops are chasing him. i think that’s the only way they have a chance to do some damage.

can’t wait to see what happens!