I have been involved with the Notio product but have also seen and tried some of the other products out there. I have seen dozens and dozens of tests and customer reports so have an opinion of where we were, were we are at and where we are going.
Notio has shipped north of 100 units. As a new product in a new market segment they had to overcome challenges that are part of the game. Did they underestimate some of the challenges? I think so.
I would say the challenges fall into 4 categories. a) Accuracy and precision of the technology, b) manufacturability and reliability of the hardware, c) ease of use and customer experience, d) sales and support. I could probably add more but those are the main ones.
There are probably parallels to be drawn to the Powermeter market. I think it’s a tougher nut to crack
On the topic of manufacturability and reliability of the hardware: i’s not until you get many units out there and in a huge variety of operating conditions that you start seeing some of the challenges. This is probably where companies like Garmin will have an advantage. They have been through this dozens of times. I know Notio posted a FB pic of some testing they did for heat/cold/vibration, shock…Drawing the parallel to PMs, it took several iterations for the Quarq, Garmins…of this world to solve all waterproofing batteries doors, seals, cracking…and these are companies with a ton more manufacturing experience. Ship 1000 units overnight and have fun dealing with these issues. Especially a small company.
On the topic of accuracy and precision. First of all these devices are not only at the mercy of their own precision, but at the mercy of all the other devices they use. How any times did we see inconsistent CDA numbers due to PMs reading high (or low). Even worse are the PMs that drift and vary during rides. But the aero sensor hardware itself has tough problems to solve. I actually don’t think wind speed is the tough nut to crack. And having tested with and without yaw measurement, I don’t believe this is where the biggest challenges are. Time will tell. If I can control test conditions, I can get really really good accuracy with the Chung method. With these sensors I can get equally good numbers in less constricted test conditions. Are we at point we get very accurate and precise numbers in all conditions ? This is where the manufacturers need to get. I think with time this will be a major differentiator for the various products.
Ease of use is big. I have seen so many people struggle to get things configured, paired, calibrated, upload, downloaded and analyzed. While I haven’t used some of the newer incarnations of these tools, I know some are investing heavily here. Customer success will depend as much on this as accuracy and precision.
Sales and support. I have heard many opinions of how to sell and support these things. Do you go through aero coaches, do you sell direct to consumers? I see the pros and cons of each. But I would say support is a big challenge and the organizations need to ramp up, which I know some are doing.
So there are some thoughts on why bringing these things to market is not as quick as some would have hoped. I think the fact this has gone gradually may end up being a good thing after all. Not for one product, for the market as a whole.
There is one thing I am convinced of, accurate and precise devices are very possible. Will they be useable by the masses ? Like the PM, it will take a few incarnations. I dont even think the PMs are there yet.
