Aero road bike- guess my speed!

Thinking about getting into TT’s a little more, later this season. Partly because we have a series around here that runs through October, and the road races dry up around labor day.

Almost all of these are on nearly flat roads- and I am not yet in the position to get a TT bike. I am going for as much bang for the buck as possible- I have a 808/404 tubie setup, but I am thinking of using my PT w/ a cover, and the 404 front, as I like the idea of TT’ing with power.

I was also going to pick up a set of clip-ons, and an aero helmet. I get Rudy Project stuff through my team. I already have a skinsuit for crits.

Based on analyticcycling.com, plugging in 250 watts on a flat but not very smooth road, I get around 22.5 mph with a frontal area of 0.6. This seems about right, although I average more like 18-20mph with those watts because my roads are so hilly.

If I go to 0.5 frontal area, it looks like I could average 25.5-26 mph for an hour (untapered FTP of around 305). I would be close to 27 mph for a 10 miler- ~330 watts. I realize this is without wind.

Is this realistic? I would be placing pretty well in these, and it would be a nice alternative to my usual schedule of RR’s and crits only. If anyone has ran a similar setup, getting pretty aero on a road bike, what was your typical watts vs. speed on flat courses (of any duration)?

-Physiojoe

Go ride the course with your setup and see how you do. You’ll get a pretty accurate guess of how fast you can go.

Honestly, you can plug and chug numbers all day, but there are so many areas for error.

I’m going to guess 12-15 mph.

Sure, I do TTs, crits and road races - but have a separate bike for each :wink: I prefer slack angle for road racing, steeper for crits (74.5) with quick handling, and 80 degree TT bike. Different machines.

My last TT was right at 332W (but hilly), but I’m on a P3, aero helmet, skinsuit, Hed Jet 90 front clincher/latex, Rear 404 clincher PT with cover, etc. so full on aero. I’m 70-71kg. 27 mph for 10 miles (even flat) on a road bike would need at least 330W I’m guessing.

Tom A. should have a better watt estimate?