Sunny, 63…
This could be very, very good (compared to previous years).
Crap–that will make it tough to spectate in a thong.
You don’t believe that forcast do you?
well…atleast we can hammer the bike and not pay for it :-)…but a war of attrition out in the heat would be more fun.
I’m expecting something strange weather-wise as next week’s long term forecast is perfect every day - no way that’ll hold up. Frankly I hope it’s hot and humid as my body hasn’t seen temp of 63 degrees in 2 months.
Things must have been busy over there at Bikesport… I haven’t seent a Moo weather posting from you in quite a few days.
No way will it be 63 and sunny. I’m betting it’ll be in the 80’s.
Crap--that will make it tough to spectate in a thong.
If it’s that cold, all we really care about is what you’ll be wearing up top… 8O
I banged out a long ride today as my last really significant workout. It was hot and humid today with a rather persistent breeze. I’m hammered.
I am prepared to suffer mightily for you racers–with margarita in hand, of course!
No, we are settled in for the typical weather pattern before the BIG HEAT comes into town! I’m gunning for the BIG HEAT. I LOVED running in the middle of the day today.
Besides, shouldn’t all you racers be HTFU??? I am–I’ve got NothingMan a week after you do your thing!
us folks in the profession don’t call it crap-u-weather for nothing. Don’t count on a forecast that far out panning out. Models are showing a pretty good size trough to the west, with WI on the edge of it. The models do a crappy job in temperature forecasting in these circumastances, as a slight change in the propagation speed of the trough can significantly alter the surface temperatures and the chance of precip.
Way too early to tell!
how far out can we say it becomes more accurate?
I put my money on Mr. Tom Skilling, and having lived in this area for, well, my entire life, I know how changeable the weather patterns are this time of year.
I’ve done IMWI 3 times and have seen the weather forecast for race day change dramatically within 3 days of the race, so no, I wouldn’t put my money in Crap-U-Weather, either.
Right now Skilling’s blog is thinking maybe a lot of rain is on the way next week.
Stay tuned…
how far out can we say it becomes more accurate?
Best case 4 or 5 days, worst case 1 or 2. The edges of troughs are really unstable areas, so it’s really hard to predict what is going to happen even a few days out. As time goes on, it should become clearer whether it will be cooler or warmer and if it will likley rain or not. Just the specifics (exact temps and timing of rain) will remain vague.
Careful, in 2003 accuweather’s 15 day forecast predicted 60 and cloudy.
It then raised that prediction 2 degrees a day, everyday , (you don’t have to be Francois to do the math) and not a cloud in sight.
Made for a long day.
Best case 4 or 5 days, worst case 1 or 2. The edges of troughs are really unstable areas, so it’s really hard to predict what is going to happen even a few days out. As time goes on, it should become clearer whether it will be cooler or warmer and if it will likley rain or not. Just the specifics (exact temps and timing of rain) will remain vague.
Pardon my ignorance, but I’m weather-impaired. What do you mean by “troughs?” I generally get that weather patterns change and a 15-day forecast isn’t necessarily too accurate, but what kind of variations (temperature and precipitation-wise) are we looking at? Is it possible it could be 55 and rainy like last year, but equally possible it could by 95 and windy like 2005? Seems like a pretty large range . . . but then, as I said, I have no real clue how the weather patterns work.
LOL- I took a mlook at the 10-day forecast, and IMOO has come into view. Thought of Tom right off. 52 degrees will be a chilly start, especially in my sleeveless suit. Based on my last long ride, done in a 65-degree downpour, I’m hoping for cool and a light drizzle. Its like having an intercooler on your engine…
Says periods of rain as well, now. greeeeeeat
You’ll pay for it about mile 16 of the run.
63? Why did you also mention the rain / hail combo that we have all lined for for Moo?