Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight did an analysis of Herman Cain’s current position, and he concluded that there is great uncertainty as to whether he will win the Republican nomination. With that, he challenged “experts” who said that Cain had no chance to be the nominee whether they’d be willing to risk their jobs over their prediction.
If you really want to understand the odds you must turn to Vegas. They live and die by the book. Cain is 20/1 today and I think that is generous considering Cain’s lack of funds.
Which is true. BUT remember that the vegas line has to be low enough that you get enough suckers to bet on the loosing side and people betting on the winning side. So his real chances are probably more in the 25:1 or 30:1 range, but if you put the line there, everyone would bet on the under, and the casino would be out a lot of money (or make a ton, but that’s too big a risk for a casino)
WHat the casinos do is to move the line as the money comes in, so they are not just throwing some number out there. In the beginning they have to give their best guess, but once money is bet, they move the lines to reflect where that money is coming in at. In case you didn’t realize, they make their money on a vig on all the money bet, not who actually wins and loses. So they have to make sure that there is an even amount spread out over the field, and then they take their 5% off the top or so.
One also has to keep in mind that he’s done virtually no campaigning in Iowa.
Cain is here to sell books, not run for president.
Source? And why do you hate minorities?
He said this:
“Relative to foreign policy, I don’t need to know the details of every one of the issues we face.
"We’ve got plenty of experts who can fill in the details,” Cain said at dinner held by the Nueces County Republican Women.
Would anyone that actually wants to be president say this?
“Relative to foreign policy, I don’t need to know the details of every one of the issues we face.
"We’ve got plenty of experts who can fill in the details,” Cain said at dinner held by the Nueces County Republican Women.
Would anyone that actually wants to be president say this?
You mean as opposed to one who thinks he already knows the details and doesn’t want to listen to any opinions that diverge from his own?
One also has to keep in mind that he’s done virtually no campaigning in Iowa.
Cain is here to sell books, not run for president.
Source? And why do you hate minorities?
He said this:
“Relative to foreign policy, I don’t need to know the details of every one of the issues we face.
"We’ve got plenty of experts who can fill in the details,” Cain said at dinner held by the Nueces County Republican Women.
Would anyone that actually wants to be president say this?
If you’re the CEO of the a company with 100000 employees do you want to know everytime you have an issue with an employee. No you’re head would probably explode. I see no difference here. Having experts analyze the sitution is probably a more valuable choice. Unless you want the president to be an expert in every subject he has to deal with and if that’s the case you’re never going to vote for anyone cause it will never happen. I’d much rather have someone who knows he’s not an expert at everything instead of one who thinks they are. I want someone who can get information from all the experts and make the best decision.
I’m dumbfounded that you actually wrote that rationalization.
We’re talking about foreign policy…and all he can say is that he’s sure someone will know what’s going on. That’s like Bill Gates saying he doesn’t really know much about technology.
I’m dumbfounded that you actually wrote that rationalization.
We’re talking about foreign policy…and all he can say is that he’s sure someone will know what’s going on. That’s like Bill Gates saying he doesn’t really know much about technology.
I hear what you’re saying, but we’re talking management here. Do you think Bill Gates knows details of what most sections of Microsoft are doing these days? At what level of management would you say it’s okay to not know every detail of every area of operation?
Upon second read and going to the source I’ll retract my statement and, instead, say that it was not a smart thing to say.
Yes, a CEO/President does not need to know the details as they have experts to take care of that. However, you expect that those experts will bring you the details in some sort of executive summary, and you are expected to make a decision off of that information. I think we all agree so far. However, when on a campaign trail, this process should already be taking place and Cain should have solid answers for the public who intends to consider a vote for him.
I don’t doubt that he’s a smart enough guy. I just don’t think his catchy slogans are going to carry him through the primaries with a lack of solid answers to standard questions.
Again, I don’t disagree with his statement, I just don’t think its a good answer.
(or make a ton, but that’s too big a risk for a casino)