2025 NFL Week 8

The Coffee Shop
61

I might tune in tonight and see if Jackson comes out in street clothes or his uniform so I can change my pick before kickoff.

If I cared about 1 point that much.

62

Tyrod Taylor was the presumed starter until a leg injury reopened the door for Fields, or QB3?

Jets are a disaster.

63

Made an edit. Bears instead of Ravens

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Chargers

Falcons
Bengals
Pats
Eagles
Panthers
Ravens
Texans

Bucs
Cowboys
Colts

Steelers
Chiefs
#2 option as both defenses are pitiful and the 1960 World Series was a one of a kind not to be repeated . Let’s go Bucs!

65

Thursday night
Chargers

Sunday early:
Falcons
Bengals*
Pats
Eagles (GOTW 2pts)
Bills
Bears
Niners

Sunday late:
Bucs
Broncos
Colts

Sunday night:
Packers (GOTW 3pts)

Monday night:
Chiefs

Champ’s Choice: Risk 2 points to win 2 points, a tie awards 1 point

Which score will be higher:

66

Thursday night
Chargers

Sunday early:

Falcons
Bengals*
Pats

Eagles (GOTW 2pts)
Bills
Bears
Texans

Sunday late:
Saints
Cowboys
Colts

Sunday night:
Steelers (GOTW 3pts)

Monday night:

Chiefs

Champ’s Choice: Risk 2 points to win 2 points, a tie awards 1 point

Which score will be higher:

  1. Jets total points (vs Bengals)

leaking oil, need to right the ship.

67

Thursday night
Chargers

Sunday early:
Falcons
Bengals
Pats
Eagles (GOTW 2pts)
Bills
Ravens
Niners

Sunday late:
Bucs
Broncos
Colts

Sunday night:
Packers (GOTW 3pts)

Monday night:
Chiefs

Champ’s Choice: Risk 2 points to win 2 points, a tie awards 1 point

Which score will be higher:
Jets total points (vs Bengals)

68

Thursday night
Vikings at Chargers

Sunday early:
Dolphins at Falcons
Jets at Bengals*
Browns at Pats
Giants at Eagles (GOTW 2pts)
Bills at Panthers
Bears at Ravens
Niners at Texans

Sunday late:
Bucs at Saints
Cowboys at Broncos
Titans at Colts

Sunday night:
Packers at Steelers (GOTW 3pts)

Monday night:
Commies at Chiefs

Champ’s Choice: Risk 2 points to win 2 points, a tie awards 1 point

Which score will be higher:

  1. World Series Games 1 and 2 total runs, or
  2. Jets total points (vs Bengals)

For the record, I love this week’s CC prop bet but I am TBD for now.

But here’s my analysis - the O/U for Game 1 is at 7.5. Assuming that this will be the same for Game 2, that means Vegas is predicting that the total runs for both games will be in the range of 14 to 16.

The O/U for the Jets v Bengals game is 43.5, with the Bengals at -6.5, which means that Vegas is expecting that the Jets will score around 18 or 19 points.

Despite all this, its fairly close and I might lean to take the World Series. Personally, I think the O/U for Game 1 is low, and the Jays’ bats have been alive in the postseason. They absolutely crushed the Yankees in the ALDS, scoring an average of 8.5 runs per game.

Also, the Jets are just plain awful.

69

Just for fun, I ran the CC prop bet through ChatGPT and it agreed with your above analysis. Its basically a virtual coin toss, and maybe a slight lean towards the Jets since runs tend to be lower in the postseason:

Comparison summary

Category Expected 90% CI Notes
Jets points 20.5 7–34 Could reach low 30s vs weak defense
Jays + Dodgers runs (2 games) 20.0 11–29 Depends on pitching strength
  • The ranges overlap heavily, meaning there’s no strong statistical favorite.
  • If both play close to their means, it’s a virtual tie (~20 vs 20).
  • But because MLB postseason tends to suppress scoring slightly, the Jets’ upper range makes them slightly more likely to outscore the combined MLB total.
3 Likes
70

What a time to be alive.

1 Like
71

Get your lighters out.

GOTW gets the kelly green treatment.

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72

I just can’t trust the Ravens without Lamar. They are so bad. It’s a scary reminder of the Bills without Josh.

73

Thursday night
Too late to pick but obviously would have bet on the chargers!

Sunday early:
Dolphins at Falcons
Jets at Bengals*
Browns at Pats
Giants at Eagles (GOTW 2pts)
Bills at Panthers
Bears at Ravens
Niners at Texans

Sunday late:
Bucs at Saints
Cowboys at Broncos
Titans at Colts

Sunday night:
Packers at Steelers (GOTW 3pts)

Monday night:
Commies at Chiefs

Champ’s Choice: Risk 2 points to win 2 points, a tie awards 1 point

Which score will be higher:

Jets

74

I will root for Jersey Joe Flacco every snap until the day he retires, again.

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I love my family. I really do. But a little bit of alone time is just so nice :wink:

75

Ran across an article on long field goals. There was a rule change that I wasn’t aware of. They used to give the teams brand new balls for each game. Now you can bring your own broken in ball.

Why NFL is seeing more long field goals: Kickers admit 2025 rule change is adding distance to their kicks

1 Like
76

I agree with them allowing conditioned balls to be used rather than brand new slick as snot version, but they should have to use the ball in play at the time they call for the kicking team. Feels more sporting.

Under the new rule, each team is given 60 kicking footballs (K-Balls) at the beginning of the season. This allows each team to break the ball in before they use it. Since the ball can be used in practice, that generally softens it up. Teams are also allowed to use a brush to try and rub down the bumps (Every football is covered by thousands of tiny bumps).

The team has to give three K-Balls to the officiating crew before each game and then the officials have to approve each ball for use. Once a ball is approved, it gets a special mark from the referee and each K-Ball can only be used for three games before being retired.

Under the old rule that existed from 1999 until 2024, teams were given three brand new footballs ON GAME DAY and they had roughly one hour to break them in. The new balls were stiff, which made them more difficult to kick. It was the difference between using a brand new baseball glove and a worn in glove.

77

Tom Brady has entered the chat.

78

And Lance Armstrong

79

Unless you’re in a crunch time situation, the same ball isn’t always used from play to play. They’re constantly switching them out.

I’m puzzled why them want to rub down the bumps, wouldn’t the ball be subject to flakier flight patterns if it was completely smooth?

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This is what Co-pilot told me:

  1. Surface Texture Affects Flight and Contact

  • New footballs have a rough, pebbled texture that can affect how the ball interacts with the kicker’s foot.

  • By smoothing the surface, kickers can get a more predictable feel and cleaner contact, which can improve accuracy and distance.

2. Better Grip for Holders and Kickers

  • A smoother ball can be easier for the holder to position and for the kicker to strike cleanly.

  • It reduces the chance of the ball slipping or rotating unexpectedly during the kick.

3. Consistency Across Kicks

  • NFL kickers are extremely precise. Even small inconsistencies in the ball’s surface can affect the trajectory.

  • Rubbing off the bumps helps standardize the ball’s feel, making each kick more repeatable.

4. Tradition and Superstition

  • Some kickers have personal preferences or rituals. Rubbing the ball might be part of their routine to mentally prepare or feel more confident.