The answer to most of this is 268 kilometers. Most of it in very wet/cold conditions. After 268 kilometers - and a nuclear ascent up the Cipressa - no one is firing on all cylinders anymore, and the three with the most left in the tank are the three they’re chasing. All World Champions. It’s not just putting riders on the front, it’s putting riders on the front who can match the pace of the front three, and we saw that even Campanaerts couldn’t make any kind of a dent in the gap, fully selling out for his team. If you could rotate 4 of him, maybe you catch them. But there aren’t 4 of him in that pack, and almost everybody in that chase pack was just hanging on by their teeth hoping to recover in time for the Poggio, hoping someone else had more than they did and could bring it all back together.
Pog has to work, or Ganna definitely comes back, and is fresher when he does. The odds are simply better in a 1v1 than a three-up with those two, which probably ends with him in third 5 times out of 6. Worst case scenario if they stay away is he finishes second. Breakaway math is simple but cruel.
@fredly - i hear you. I can’t say how much my own biases affect my judgement (a lot! I bet I had a good bit more 2nd places than I had wins), but…
my mantra is you have to be willing to lose in order to win.
Pogi should have ZERO interest in 2nd (in my opinion).
Way more than uber domestique Campanaerts should be selling out - KNOWING that a drafting teammate is doing less than Pogi/mvdp/Top G up front rotating.
I sure hope those in the 2nd group are analyzing Ganna’s chase. He was dropped by 10-15 seconds at times on the Poggio and was in with a chance at the win. I imagine there are riders in that 2nd group who think the gap to the leading 3 could have been a lot less before the poggio.
I sure hope these super deep teams are thinking about how to keep riding if/when pogi/mvdp drop them at flanders and roubaix - lisa and lil t SHOULD have numbers to effect that gap (imo).
MvdP said afterward that he attacked early to surprise the other two.
Sitting on Ganna instead of MvdP, I have to think Pog expected Ganna to jump first.
Absolutely. Pog was laying off Ganna, hoping that he would attack first, VdP would grab the wheel, and he would get a run at both of them from behind. It’s probably exactly what needed to happen for him to win from that group.
That was something else. I was thinking “Well, this 19 year old kid is going to learn a tough lesson today.” Didn’t turn out that way. Very gracious interview from Groves.
That sprint was absolutely incredible and so is Brennan Down the House. I love seeing a team get rolled like that. He’s has had quite an impressive week.
This reminds me of another wonderful team fail. 2015 Omloop (Down with DQS Stannard edition)
quick step had a good many kilometers of flat to attack / counterattack Stannard with 3-1 odds.
this looked like teammates using a dangerous (and cold) descent to forge the advantage. brennan holding off groves who had his wheel for the whole kilo is amazing.
first thing that came to my mind was (B)ren n stimpy - this is why i can’t be trusted for nicknames.
i saw/read something where tadej said he didn’t want Ganna coming back. I guess he thought 1v1 aganist mvdp was better. coming to a flat finish with mvdp I’d want more options (e.g. the way deep started tracking down pidcock in strade). Tadej definitely has a team capable of doing the strade wellens bridge if he can’t shake mvdp in the coming races.
What’s up with the doping raids on multiple homes going on in Belgium? This should be interesting, but likely everyone will be forgotten about and not discussed.
In a more serious area of things, Catalunya has a Spanish intro song for the race that has T Pain levels of bad autotune. Second day in a row with the same song, which makes me wonder if it was produced for the race (these things actually are bought and paid for). Some days I whine about the Italian races being insistent on playing Guns N Roses and Van Halen on repeat for ITT starts, but I’ll take that all day over this. Good to see a bit of Kusstanza face time to start the race.
Nice to see Ewan get a W today, though he essentially had no competition. ALL the top sprinters are lining up for De Panne tomorrow, should be a Battle Royale.
