I see a lot of strong anti-Obama & Democrat emotion in these threads. If a visitor from another world were to read some of the vitriolic they might believe that the American public is barely being held back from a populist revolution to overthrow this tyrannical regime. And the idea that Democrats have any chance in the next federal election is made to seem laughable…
Then I thought, “what if, perhaps, this anti-Obama viewpoint is being espoused only by a small but very passionate and vocal minority?”
The way I see it, the best way to separate the emotional rhetoric from the actual pulse of the nation is to look at what people are saying with their money.
The capitalist free market is extremely efficient at predicting this sort of thing when it comes to betting odds.
It’s way too early to pay attention to the markets for the presidential election (especially before the primaries and/or people declaring their intentions). Through in the lack of liquidity in those markets i.e. if I walked in and put down 5K I could probably move some of those lines, I’d wait a bit before paying attention.
Then I though, “what if, perhaps, this anti-Obama viewpoint is being espoused only by a small but very passionate and vocal minority?”
The way I see it, the best way to separate the emotional rhetoric from the actual pulse of the nation is to look at what people are saying with their money.
The capitalist free market is extremely efficient at predicting this sort of thing when it comes to betting odds.
I think because of the internet, the blogs and message boards, you get the impression that the anti-Obama attitude is widespread and that his Presidency is the worst in American history. Lets not forget though that the internet hasn’t been around all that long and before Bush II, you never really got sense of what millions of others were thinking on a daily basis until it was time to vote. I think much of the anti-Obama rhetoric comes from haters that are just going to hate regardless of what this man does or doesn’t do. They made the decision a long time ago that they were going to hate this man and even if he cured Aids or performed some other miracle, he’d still be hated. Anything and everything he does is criticized, but lets not forget that its also because of the internet that you are aware of it.
agreed that the more extreme anti-obama folks listen to themselves so much that they overestimate their strength. that was what election night '12 showed. that said…
a) are these really ‘market forces’? i get that BS is cheaper than money, and people are putting their money where their mouth is here, but does that count as ‘market forces’? and don’t pretend there’s no emotion in it. (or in the real market, either)
b) clinton’s relative strength has to do w/ the shape of the field. crowded republican field vs. empty dem field.
c) i miss intrade. will these other sites make me forget intrade? sure hope so.
d) agree w/ earlier poster that it’s really early for this sort of thing.
I think because of the internet, the blogs and message boards, you get the impression that the anti-Obama attitude is widespread and that his Presidency is the worst in American history. Lets not forget though that the internet hasn’t been around all that long and before Bush II, you never really got sense of what millions of others were thinking on a daily basis until it was time to vote. I think much of the anti-Obama rhetoric comes from haters that are just going to hate regardless of what this man does or doesn’t do. They made the decision a long time ago that they were going to hate this man and even if he cured Aids or performed some other miracle, he’d still be hated. Anything and everything he does is criticized, but lets not forget that its also because of the internet that you are aware of it.
Obama would win a third term and he is the worst POTUS in the history of the US. That is the difficult truth of our times.
I can’t see how any POTUS beats GWII in the worst ever category. If Obama did half the things W did, I’d understand why he’s hated so much.
Both GWB and BHO deserve to be in the bottom 25% of all POTUS lists, and honestly I’d put BHO lower. It’s amazing how this country has withstood 14 years of less than mediocre leadership.
Looking at a popular odds-amalgamation site Oddschecker.com, Hillary is the runaway favourite with almost every bookie.
There isn’t a Republican running yet and Hillary has HUGE name recognition. FWIW I’m not putting a whole lot of stock in a list that contains Alec Baldwin and Eva Longoria.
I agree that it’s too early to tell. There will be scandals for misconduct that hasn’t even happened yet.
If you look back at elections over the last 30 - 40 years and who the apparent front runner was 2 years out, it is amazing how far and fast most of them have fallen.
The only reason I think Clinton may be different this time is that there is very little left to be found out about her. And most of those are far in the rear view mirror, and Benghazi will only work with the people who wouldn’t have voted for her in the first place… We know pretty much everything she has done except how exactly she killed Vince Foster.
FWIW I’m not putting a whole lot of stock in a list that contains Alec Baldwin and Eva Longoria.
~Matt
Agreed… Except that 20 years ago I would have laughed at the idea of Arnold being a Governor of Cali. And I’m sure in 1960 no one imagined Ronald would be a Governor or Prez.
The countries changing demographics and acceptance of liberal social issues isn’t going to help the GOP. When I think about the GOP I picture a bunch of fat white men wishing that the 50’s would come back. Check out this video about 2050: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/10/05/snl-white-video_n_5935428.html
Now I am sure on the other side of the coin the picture isn’t any rosier but the days of exclusion are getting behind us. If the GOP truly want to win and gain some momentum for future elections they need to favor gay rights, immigration, medical and marijuana reform. The economy as an issue isn’t that big a deal today because we’ve moved to a more socialist economy…People want to hear what the govt. is going to do for them. You and I may not like that, but there is no getting around it.