Anyone?
What?
Anyone?
A 45:39 is the Daniels Vdot equivalent 10k pace if that’s what you’re looking for.
Hugh
Ah, I think I got what you are looking for now.
Here, http://www.coacheseducation.com/endur/jack-daniels-nov-00.htm
According to Daniels performance charts, if you can run a 45 minute 10k, you should be able to run a 3:28 marathon. But that leaves a lot unsaid. It’s a whole lot easier to approach your potential in a shorter race than it is in a longer one. For the longer one you need more mileage and you need for nothing to go wrong. But if you can run a 45 minute 10k AND you are getting in the weekly mileage AND the MP runs, AND you have a good day AND you don’t do anything dumb AND you run on a course that isn’t too challenging, you should be able to make your goal.
um, run 4 of them?
yeah, and that site suggests i can run a 2:45 marathon! no Freaking way!
(i guess we’ll see next weekend)
That’s not a random site, it’s table from Jack Daniels “Daniels Running Formula”. And with proper mileage you should be able to hit the times.
For reference, ranging from 5k-marathon, my actual times as compared to those predictions are all within 1 minute and most are closer to 10-15 seconds.
According to Daniels performance charts, if you can run a 45 minute 10k, you should be able to run a 3:28 marathon. But that leaves a lot unsaid. It’s a whole lot easier to approach your potential in a shorter race than it is in a longer one. For the longer one you need more mileage and you need for nothing to go wrong. But if you can run a 45 minute 10k AND you are getting in the weekly mileage AND the MP runs, AND you have a good day AND you don’t do anything dumb AND you run on a course that isn’t too challenging, you should be able to make your goal.
Unfortunately, the “ANDs” never get blamed for a bad marathon performance. That is unless you assume that any execution faults go directly into the “AND you don’t do anything dumb” category.
i have a bag full of “ANDS” that i am bringing to the marathon i’m running next weekend…at the finish, i’m going to lay them out on the grass, and with a beer in my hand, i’m going to yell at everyone of them for letting me down.
Daniels doesn’t say you should be able to hit the times in the charts. He says they are equivalent performances aerobically. Lots goes into a performance other than aerobic fitness. Some are just suited to one distance over another.
Look at Ryan Hall. Fastest current US marathoner. Fairly crappy compared lots of guys at 10K and shorter. Whereas Ritz is much faster than him at 5k and 10 k but isn’t not real in either the half or full marathon PRs.
Styrrell
At the pointy end of the spectrum, I’d tend to agree with you.
But for the guy running a 45 minute 10k, a 3:30 marathon should be within his abilities given the requisite jump in training. If you’ve got legs and a body capable of going 45 for a 10k, there’s probably no physical or genetic limiters that put a 3:30 out of reach.
Now trying to run a sub 2:10 marathon or a sub 13 minute 5k, yeah, at that point you’re pushing the limits of performance.
So right. I virtually stopped all training in 2009 but for some mad reason signed up for a marathon at the end of the year. I went through an 8 week marathon program for a 3:15 marathon but I could sense in the longer runs that the fitness base was failing after about 50 mins running. Yet I could do all the speed work required without any problem. I even tested the yasso 800s which told me that I could go 3 hours flat… On the day, I blew up just after the half way point and hobbled over the line in 4h10. Having the mileage in the legs is a KEY condition of all these calculators.
yep.
I love to put my mile time into the Daniels Calc and look at the 5, 10k, half, and marathon times predicted.
sub 3 marathon! I won’t bother actually running it =)
Daniels doesn’t say you should be able to hit the times in the charts. He says they are equivalent performances aerobically. Lots goes into a performance other than aerobic fitness. Some are just suited to one distance over another.
Look at Ryan Hall. Fastest current US marathoner. Fairly crappy compared lots of guys at 10K and shorter. Whereas Ritz is much faster than him at 5k and 10 k but isn’t not real in either the half or full marathon PRs.
Styrrell
McMillan running calculator says 44:45 10K (7:11 pace)
.
If you’re running your 1st marathon or not putting up at least 65-70mpw, you likely will not hit your Daniels or Mcmillan estaimate, even on a all-donwohill course. The estimates are known to be very aggressive.
I personally have found the following link useful: http://www.attackpoint.org/trainingpaces.jsp. I was spot on last year up to a half marathon. None of my runs were over an hour and no crazy weekly mileage. But, I would agree with most that the longer the distance, the more you will have to make sure that you do the mileage. I fell apart during my last 2 miles in the half, but my time was still exactly as predicted. Probably went out too fast - but it felt so easy during the first half :).
Those estimates are for runners, not cycling TTers who also like to race triathlons.
If you’ve got the running ability to put up a time corresponding to a sub 3 marathon, obviously train a fair amount so have no genetic or physical defects, do you really think you’d be unable to break 3 hours if you put in the required mileage?
Again, for Ritz and Hall, these things get fuzzy, because you can’t be a specialist at both the 5k and the marathon, and that’s what pro athletes are. But you don’t need to be a specialist to run a sub 3 marathon.
assuming my body holds up to 70-100mpw yes i could probably go sub 3
but when I did that my mile would be sub 5 and indicate a faster marathon yet.
at any given fitness my run times are much ‘better’ the shorter the distance.
some people are the reverse.
i think though that using a 10k to predict a marathon is very valid assuming youve done enough mileage. anaerobic talent isn’t going to substantively affect your 10k like it can 1 mile
If you’ve got the running ability to put up a time corresponding to a sub 3 marathon, obviously train a fair amount so have no genetic or physical defects, do you really think you’d be unable to break 3 hours if you put in the required mileage?
One other big AND is the weather. With warm weather/high dewpoint it would be best to adjust the game plan prior to the start.