let's talk kona predictions

Sep 29, 03 14:56

Post #1 of 96 (7936 views)

Hope it's not too early to do this.

Men's winner: Tim Deboom

I know that this a safe and easy bet, but the guy has jets attached to his running shoes. I may be wrong, but I think IM HI was won only one year on the bike leg. I don't see it happening again this year. Macca is talking it up again about going all out on the bike in hopes of punishing Deboom and Reid. That will probably only serve to blow himself up again. Should be interesting with Larsen in the mix. I can't see him winning with his lack of run training. Just don't think you can go to the big show without your running legs in great form. And you can't fake 26.2 miles in an IM. I'm going with Deboom. He comes to Kona every year in good form and with a definite plan that he sticks to. Seems to work well for him.

Women's winner: can't pick on this

I need help here. Something in my head keeps saying Heather Fuhr, but there is no reasoning for it. Natascha is awesome, there's no doubt about it. If some of the runners can stay within striking distance of her on the bike (easier said than done), Badmann doesn't have a chance. But that's asking a whole lot.

___________________________
And the road gets rocky along the way
But if it gets too smooth, it's time to call it a day
-Kinks

Re: let's talk kona predictions [haennp] [ In reply to ]

Sep 29, 03 15:03

Post #2 of 96 (7929 views)

DeBoom and Badmann.

Tom Demerly
The Tri Shop.com

Re: let's talk kona predictions [Tom Demerly] [ In reply to ]

Sep 29, 03 15:14

Post #3 of 96 (7913 views)

Although I like De Boom I think Macca has been a lot more prudent in his build up and racing this year - so I'm going to stick my neck out and back Macca.

With the women I would love to see Lori challenging again. Like Macca she hasn't had many late season races - no IMC this year so hopefully she will be there or there abouts..

http://www.endurancesports.ca
Coaching and Training Camps

Re: let's talk kona predictions [haennp] [ In reply to ]

Sep 29, 03 15:18

Post #4 of 96 (7909 views)

In Reply To:

Hope it's not too early to do this.
I think it's still a little early. We have to hear about the DNS's first.

Re: let's talk kona predictions [jaylew] [ In reply to ]

Sep 29, 03 15:43

Post #5 of 96 (7889 views)

It's never too early to start talking about Kona. It's all hypethetical anyway.

___________________________
And the road gets rocky along the way
But if it gets too smooth, it's time to call it a day
-Kinks

Re: let's talk kona predictions [haennp] [ In reply to ]

Sep 29, 03 16:24

Post #6 of 96 (7866 views)

Peter Reid and Natascha Badmann

Re: let's talk kona predictions [beatnic_tx] [ In reply to ]

....

Sep 29, 03 16:31

Post #7 of 96 (7861 views)

Luc Van Lierde and Nina Kraft.

Re: let's talk kona predictions [haennp] [ In reply to ]

Sep 29, 03 16:32

Post #8 of 96 (7860 views)

Tim DeBoom & Nina Kraft

Once, I was fast. But I got over it.

Re: let's talk kona predictions [haennp] [ In reply to ]

Sep 29, 03 16:37

Post #9 of 96 (7856 views)

Luc van Lierde will come out of the water at or near the front (excluding the Lars Jorgenson-type performances). His bike was "on" when he won Ironman Malaysia earlier this year, so he may be able to stay close to the super-bikers if/when they come. If his run is there this year, no one -- including DeBoom and Reid -- will be able to hang with Luc.

Few have had worse luck or deserve it more, it my opinion. GO LUC!

Re: let's talk kona predictions [haennp] [ In reply to ]

Sep 30, 03 0:06

Post #10 of 96 (7751 views)

In Reply To:

Hope it's not too early to do this.

Men's winner: Tim Deboom

Women's winner: can't pick on this

There was a tread in Gordos Forum about 'Pics for Hawaii':
http://www.coachgordo.com/...config.pl?read=40433
This tread started a week ago.

15 out of the 16 first post predicted Natascha Badmann as winner (as I do). The mens race seems to be much more open. There were very different picks.

Felix

http://www.weilenmann.ch.vu

Re: let's talk kona predictions [felix__w] [ In reply to ]

Sep 30, 03 5:06

Post #11 of 96 (7702 views)

I like the chances of the bikers this year. You've got not only Larsen, Macca, Helriegel, Zach, but also some new athletes out there. I'm thinking about Craig Walton (if he does it this year), Fran�ois Chabaud, and don't forget last year long distance world champion Cyril Neveu, of France, a very good biker too. Not to mention the other Germans (Stadler, ...) and also Bjorn Andersson (does he do Kona this year ???).

That makes a lot of very good athletes that can push the bike to limits we haven't seen in years past in Kona. The runners (LVL, Reed, TDB, Brown) will have to ride too this year, just waiting for the run won't be enough.

Re: let's talk kona predictions [Diabolo] [ In reply to ]

....

Sep 30, 03 5:25

Post #12 of 96 (7697 views)

Neveu is a very good bike rider, but not particular on the flat to undulating courses. he is definitely very good climber and technically, but Hawaii is quite different. even if he stays with them on the bike, it's going to be hard.
Chabaud has been focusing on kona and improved his run but I doubt it is to the point of winning.

For info, in 1999, LVL had the fastest ride. Reid can also ride very strong and has shown it.
TDB and Brown have kept it steady on the bike, but it does not mean they cannot push the bike pace as well.

Re: let's talk kona predictions [Francois] [ In reply to ]

Sep 30, 03 5:55

Post #13 of 96 (7676 views)

Reid - Last chance, and he probably realizes it. Leder, Macca and LVL close behind.

Kraft - Probably no chance of this actually, but there is very little money to be won in betting on Badmann. Bentley on the podium.

How many contenders will be DQd (not just penalized) for drafting this year? I'm guessing 4.

Re: let's talk kona predictions [Francois] [ In reply to ]

Sep 30, 03 6:01

Post #14 of 96 (7671 views)

I agree with you. I didn't say I believed Chabaud or Neveu could win it all, but I definitely think that they don't have a choice but to hammer the bike. Added to the other bikers, that makes much more people pushing the bike.

The same way, I know LVL, Reed and TDB are very good bikers too, but they will have to work really hard on the bike this time, and their run might not be as good this time around.

As for LVL, he is first a runner, and his bike was awesom in his best years (to the point he was one of the best on the bike), but he hasn't shown great things on the bike these past few years.

This said, I predict the following podium :

1. LVL or Macca
2. Macca or LVL
3. Brown (close with TDB)

4. Olaf ???

Re: let's talk kona predictions [Marlin] [ In reply to ]

Sep 30, 03 6:03

Post #15 of 96 (7671 views)

No one has mentioned Cam Brown yet - apart from DeBoom, a model of consistency.

Tough (impossible?) to beat Badmann, but if she doesn't have a great day, I'm liking Bentley too.

Deke

Re: let's talk kona predictions [deke] [ In reply to ]

Sep 30, 03 6:14

Post #16 of 96 (7659 views)

I though hard about Brown and DeBoom before throwing in my $0.02, but I'm hoping the race heats up on the bike, and those guys will probably stick to their race plans and end the ride in an impossible deficit.

Add to that TDB's traditional 3 minute drafting penalty and he won't podium this year. (Not saying he's a cheat - we've all accidentally ended up in the draft zone once or twice - but he and Spencer Smith are marked men by the officials now.)

This scenario holds unless one of them runs a 2:34. Then all bets are off.

Re: let's talk kona predictions [haennp] [ In reply to ]

Sep 30, 03 6:46

Post #17 of 96 (7625 views)

Historically, Kona is a runner's race (at least on the mens side). As such, here are my predictions:

Men's Top 5:
1- Cameron Brown
2- Tim DeBoom
3- Peter Reid
4- Thomas Hellriegel
5- Lothar Leder

Not as educated in terms of the women, but here's my best guess:

Women's Top 5:
1- Nina Kraft
2- Natascha Badmann
3- Lori Bowden
4- Lisa Bently
5- Heather Fuhr

Re: let's talk kona predictions [haennp] [ In reply to ]

Sep 30, 03 8:17

Post #18 of 96 (7570 views)

Macca/Larsen men - should be a very good race this year with many potential winners. Winner won't be known until mile 20 of the run I think.

Badmann/Bentley women. Closer race for the women this year but not as close as for the men. Only a few with a real potential to win.

--------------
Frank,
An original Ironman and the Inventor of PowerCranks

Re: let's talk kona predictions [haennp] [ In reply to ]

Sep 30, 03 10:10

Post #19 of 96 (7491 views)

I won't predict a men's winner but will predict a "slow" time for the men. The times have been getting slower, not faster since 1997. Luc in 1996 and Mark Allen in the early 90's were significantly faster than the current bunch. See for yourself http://www.terra.es/...lpenag/tri_iron1.htm

As for the women, Natasha of course.

Re: let's talk kona predictions [cerveloguy] [ In reply to ]

Sep 30, 03 10:33

Post #20 of 96 (7460 views)

Times certainly have been slower than the record days of LVL and Allen and Scott. However, not too many pro triathletes are in the same league as Mark Allen and Dave Scott, at least with regards to Hawaii.

I still think this is a runner's game. The one who manages the best on the bike (while still staying close enough to strike) is the one who wins. I just don't see this being a biker's year. If, however, Macca or someone like him, blows everyone away on the bike and takes the win, the game will be changed forever.

It's interesting that it doesn't seem to pan out that way all the time in the women's race, at least in recent years with Badmann. She is definitely not the best runner in the game, but who can match her bike?

One thing's for sure, this year should be one hell of a race. There seems to be many big time players involved in the men's division.

_________________________________________________________________________

___________________________
And the road gets rocky along the way
But if it gets too smooth, it's time to call it a day
-Kinks

Re: let's talk kona predictions [cerveloguy] [ In reply to ]

Sep 30, 03 10:43

Post #21 of 96 (7443 views)

As noted in the newest IT issue, professionals are going to go for the win in Kona, not the record. Let's face it - it's the TdF of the triathlon world. No serious contender is going to go out and lay down a sub-4:25 bike and risk blowing up on the run. They're all going to sit back and watch each other through the bike and then just try to outrun each other.

As for predictions, I am notoriously bad at those. But I'm rooting for Leder and Badmann.

Re: let's talk kona predictions [haennp] [ In reply to ]

Sep 30, 03 10:51

Post #22 of 96 (7431 views)

"but who can match her bike? "

How quickly we forget. The fastest female bike time ever was Paula Newby-Fraser in 1993, not Natasha as many believe. http://www.terra.es/...lpenag/tri_iron2.htm

I fact, her 4:48:30 is faster than many of the men's over all winners.

The fastest outright bike split was Thomas Hellreigel with 4:24:50 in 1996. Now are you ready for this - the SECOND FASTEST l bike split was John Howard in 4:28:00 in 1980. Yes that is correct, 1980. I believe however, that it must have been draft legal.

Re: let's talk kona predictions [cerveloguy] [ In reply to ]

Sep 30, 03 11:25

Post #23 of 96 (7404 views)

It wouldn't have mattered if it was draft legal. There were only about 60 people in that race (nobody to draft) AND it was on Oahu. Since we all provided our own help in those days and there were no course marshalls and the roads were not closed, it is possible John drafted his own aid vehicle, but I don't see John doing that. John is just a freak of nature.

--------------
Frank,
An original Ironman and the Inventor of PowerCranks

Actually... [ In reply to ]

Sep 30, 03 14:03

Post #24 of 96 (7332 views)

... John Howard did draft behind his suplly/aid van.

Was a big controversy back in the day.

Wilfried Heinle

Artificial Intelligence can never beat natural stupidity.

Actually... [ In reply to ]

Sep 30, 03 14:03

Post #25 of 96 (7332 views)

... John Howard did draft behind his suplly/aid van.

Was a big controversy back in the day.

Wilfried Heinle

Artificial Intelligence can never beat natural stupidity.

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