Another will I go sub 3h marathon (?) thread

Sep 8, 13 8:08

Post #1 of 15 (3003 views)

Will I go sub 3h in 4 weeks?

Course is pretty flat and weather likely to be mild maybe a bit humid but nothing excessive

Did the same race twice:
- oct 2011 3h44min after starting to run in feb 2011
- oct 2012 3:15

Also did imtx 2012 in 3:44, im cabos march 2013 in 3:27 and ironman brazil in may in 3:24

What are the pros:
-- relative easy course
-- consistent improvement since first one in 2011
-- did today a 22 mile run at 7:30 per mile first 13 miles and then last 9 miles at 10 sec faster than race pace
-- some solid long runs last 4-6 weeks (3 22 milers and some 16-18 milers at solid pace)
-- haven't done a hm recently but think I could do 1:26-27

What are the cons:
-- typical running week is 40-45 miles
-- marathon training has been 50-55 miles per week but only for 2 months as I was recovering from ironman races until mid June and then I went on bike holiday and also had some knee issues
-- today's 22 miler with 9 miles faster than race pace wasn't easy but doable

I think I have a good shot. I might wish at mile 20 that I had had more weeks with 50-55 miles but I guess I just have to compensate grinding my teeth the last miles of the race

Thoughts?

Last edited by: andreasjs: Sep 8, 13 8:12

Re: Another will I go sub 3h marathon (?) thread [andreasjs] [ In reply to ]

Sep 8, 13 14:53

Post #2 of 15 (2930 views)

At a quick glance and without thinking about too much, I'd say you definitely have enough positive indicators there to give it a shot. If you haven't reached sub 3 shape, you must be very close to it.

Re: Another will I go sub 3h marathon (?) thread [andreasjs] [ In reply to ]

Sep 8, 13 15:27

Post #3 of 15 (2909 views)

andreasjs wrote:

-- did today a 22 mile run at 7:30 per mile first 13 miles and then last 9 miles at 10 sec faster than race pace
Thoughts?

You need a 6:50 to go sub-3. So that means your clicking off 9x 6:40s at the end of a 22 mile long run unrested in training, right? If that's honest, I'd say you got no issues doing it.

I went under 3 in 2011 6wks after an equally tough IM run where I went 3:35ish.

There was no way I could've done that 22 mile workout you have.

I went 3:21@IMLC and I'd guess I'm in 2:50 shape for an open 26.2.

Hope that helps.

@christopher_borden •
Spinning Spoke • Dimond Bikes • Flo Cycling • Castelli Cycling

Last edited by: Borden: Sep 8, 13 17:14

Re: Another will I go sub 3h marathon (?) thread [Borden] [ In reply to ]

Sep 8, 13 16:27

Post #4 of 15 (2884 views)

Quote:

You need a 6:50 to go sub-3. So that means your clicking off 9x 6:40s at the end of a 22 mile long run unrested assuring training, right? If that's honest, I'd say you got no issues doing it.

Darn you fast people...

just kidding, that's a phenomenal workout and best wishes for your sub 3.

maybe she's born with it, maybe it's chlorine
If you're injured and need some sympathy, PM me and I'm very happy to write back.
disclaimer: PhD not MD

Re: Another will I go sub 3h marathon (?) thread [Borden] [ In reply to ]

Sep 8, 13 16:55

Post #5 of 15 (2866 views)

Borden wrote:

andreasjs wrote:

-- did today a 22 mile run at 7:30 per mile first 13 miles and then last 9 miles at 10 sec faster than race pace
Thoughts?

You need a 6:50 to go sub-3. So that means your clicking off 9x 6:40s at the end of a 22 mile long run unrested assuring training, right? If that's honest, I'd say you got no issues doing it.

I went under 3 in 2011 6wks after an equally tough IM run where I went 3:35ish.

There was no way I could've done that 22 mile workout you have.

I went 3:21@IMLC and I'd guess I'm in 2:50 shape for an open 26.2.

Hope that helps.

Yes unrested and after a solid week of run and bike training. Main concern is if I have enough mileage but I guess I just need to hang on from mile 20 :-) the 9 miles where at 6:37 but I did struggle first few miles of the 9 until I found the rythm

Last edited by: andreasjs: Sep 8, 13 17:01

Re: Another will I go sub 3h marathon (?) thread [andreasjs] [ In reply to ]

Sep 8, 13 17:11

Post #6 of 15 (2847 views)

you'll be fine. my guess is you'll go 2:57-2:58.

Re: Another will I go sub 3h marathon (?) thread [andreasjs] [ In reply to ]

Sep 8, 13 17:21

Post #7 of 15 (2833 views)

I'm a fan of volume, but I think that one workout alone is a good predictor of what you could do.

I trained 30'@8s, 60@MP, 30@8s, 20@MP, 10EZ every other week for 6wks, and I would barely hang on the last 20'@MP.

I came in seconds over 2:59 after jogging in the last 1/4 enjoying the finish line crowd.

Report back. I think you'll have to screw up pacing to miss it. Go out comfy and dial it in, arrive at the last 5k ready to finish hard and you'll get it.

@christopher_borden •
Spinning Spoke • Dimond Bikes • Flo Cycling • Castelli Cycling

Last edited by: Borden: Sep 8, 13 17:22

Re: Another will I go sub 3h marathon (?) thread [andreasjs] [ In reply to ]

Sep 8, 13 17:58

Post #8 of 15 (2802 views)

i did a sub-3 in 09, and at the time i couldn't have done the 22 miler you just did. that said, if you don't recover from that, you'll wind up blowing your fitness on your training run.
but i don't know you ... some people so recover quickly. that's the thing i'd look at, though: will you show up at the starting line rested and ready and in peak form?

Re: Another will I go sub 3h marathon (?) thread [andreasjs] [ In reply to ]

Sep 8, 13 18:06

Post #9 of 15 (2798 views)

I'm a runner posing as a triathlete. I run 3000 miles per year when I'm not IM training.

I just did IM Louisville run in 3:34 and my last marathon in 2:59. Your 22 mi workout looks very similar to some that I have had. I would say you have a pretty good shot at sub 3 hr.

I think your chances would've gone up to 98% if you were running 60+ miles per week for at least 16 weeks and you had 6-8 22 milers.

Also I would bet you can run a HM in sub 1:25. That number is a pretty good indicator of having a sub 3 hr under your belt.

If I were betting I'd put some lunch money that you can do it. Best of luck.

Re: Another will I go sub 3h marathon (?) thread [andreasjs] [ In reply to ]

Oct 13, 13 8:48

Post #10 of 15 (2648 views)

2:59:08 was my time :-)

Re: Another will I go sub 3h marathon (?) thread [andreasjs] [ In reply to ]

Oct 13, 13 9:00

Post #11 of 15 (2627 views)

andreasjs wrote:

2:59:08 was my time :-)

Congrats.

What I do: http://app.strava.com/athletes/345699

Re: Another will I go sub 3h marathon (?) thread [andreasjs] [ In reply to ]

Oct 13, 13 9:02

Post #12 of 15 (2624 views)

Congratz!

With that 22 mile workout i am thinking you could go significantly faster. Keep it up Kipsang!

Re: Another will I go sub 3h marathon (?) thread [Snigg] [ In reply to ]

Oct 13, 13 9:16

Post #13 of 15 (2608 views)

I think i was missing milage

Started running 2,5 years ago so hopefully in 2-4 more years I'm stronger

Re: Another will I go sub 3h marathon (?) thread [andreasjs] [ In reply to ]

Oct 13, 13 9:20

Post #14 of 15 (2603 views)

Yes. That 22 miler says it all. Rest up & take it easy after that one, don't do anything stupid like an 8-mile tempo @ 620s tomorrow or Yassos on Tuesday ...
FWIW: You could run faster than 86-87 in a half too right now.
Now the unsolicited advice: Simple race day strategy for my three marathon bests (all 3:04s, One in brutal winds):
First 10 miles NO faster than pace; next 10 mi a tad faster than pace (10 sec) & the last 10K? You'll know what you got when you get there! Good luck!

Re: Another will I go sub 3h marathon (?) thread [andreasjs] [ In reply to ]

Oct 14, 13 13:25

Post #15 of 15 (2490 views)

You are not missing mileage. Seems like you got the speed and endurance for a faster marathon in you already. I ran a similar time to you recently on lower mileage, but i would never be able to pull off that 22 miler. Maybe a finishing 3 miler, but not the distance you went.

i am expecting sub 2.50 from you soon:-) Just hit that sub 1.20 half and youre there!

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