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Xmas on ST: Tour de France ITT on Planche de Belle Filles
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Hey folks, with the TdF ITT tomorrow its the stage that is the most "ST approved". Lots of gear, some sport going on (a race for the yellow, race for king of mountains), so discussion about tactics, talk about bike changes from TT bikes over to road bikes for the final climb, chances that mechanics screw that up and maybe a chance for Richie Porte to get his first TdF podium!!!

Course profile:



The last time this course was used in the Jura mountains, Fabio Aru took the road stage. There are sections at 11-13% and the final has some 20 percent





Pogacar is planning a bike change for the climb, starting on his TT bike and then going for the road bike for the final section. In the Slovenian nationals ITT it started with a climb and ended on the TT bike and he beat Roglic by around 10 seconds. So let's see. Last riders start at 5:15 CEST, so everything should be wrapped up by noon EDT or 9 am PDT.
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Re: Xmas on ST: Tour de France ITT on Planche de Belle Filles [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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Looking forward to it. Who does not remember Fignon-Lemond.
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Re: Xmas on ST: Tour de France ITT on Planche de Belle Filles [longtrousers] [ In reply to ]
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longtrousers wrote:
Looking forward to it. Who does not remember Fignon-Lemond.

The spread for Roglic vs Pogacar going in is similar to Fignon-Lemond. I don't think Primoz is showing up with no "triathlon bars" though.
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Re: Xmas on ST: Tour de France ITT on Planche de Belle Filles [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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devashish_paul wrote:
longtrousers wrote:
Looking forward to it. Who does not remember Fignon-Lemond.


The spread for Roglic vs Pogacar going in is similar to Fignon-Lemond. I don't think Primoz is showing up with no "triathlon bars" though.

Without a helmet and with small metal glasses.
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Re: Xmas on ST: Tour de France ITT on Planche de Belle Filles [longtrousers] [ In reply to ]
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RIP Laurent





Looks like the early riders are a toss up between TT bike and switching over to a road bike for the climb.
Last edited by: devashish_paul: Sep 19, 20 5:57
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Re: Xmas on ST: Tour de France ITT on Planche de Belle Filles [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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Did not remember Fignon drove a front disk: not allowed nowedays?

What do you think, if Roglic and Pogacar are within a few seconds after today, will the traditional ceasefire tomorrow be broken?
Last edited by: longtrousers: Sep 19, 20 6:08
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Re: Xmas on ST: Tour de France ITT on Planche de Belle Filles [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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My prediction: everyone will overheat from pushing 450W on the last climb.

What's your CdA?
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Re: Xmas on ST: Tour de France ITT on Planche de Belle Filles [longtrousers] [ In reply to ]
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longtrousers wrote:
Did not remember Fignon drove a front disk: not allowed nowedays?

What do you think, if Roglic and Pogacar are within a few seconds after today, will the traditional ceasefire tomorrow be broken?

I think it is over for GC! No way anyone tries anything funny tomorrow. Sagan looks like a MOP triathlete in an MDot event in his TT position!!!!
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Re: Xmas on ST: Tour de France ITT on Planche de Belle Filles [longtrousers] [ In reply to ]
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longtrousers wrote:
Looking forward to it. Who does not remember Fignon-Lemond.
Well it's fuzzy for me, I was 1.

No way they break the cease fire tomorrow. I'm more concerned about tomorrow's stage being shortened or re-routed given the continued spike in cases in France. Sidelines today are pretty well populated, not sure what the spectator plan is for Paris, but I'd be nervous if I were the Health Minister.
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Re: Xmas on ST: Tour de France ITT on Planche de Belle Filles [bgoldstein] [ In reply to ]
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Macron was in the ASO car a few days ago on the Queen Stage. No way this gets cancelled going into Paris or he would not be sitting in a car with Prudhomme!!! This is a national showcase (end of the TdF in Parie).

Any measures will be a few days after its all done. Looks like daily deaths have gone from low teens to 30+ per day (7 day rolling) in France.

Back to the TT. I watched Caleb Ewan's bike change and timed it at 12ish seconds, plus loss of momentum, so maybe he loses 16 seconds, however, its also a 12 second recovery so probably not much more loss than 12 (you never average as high speed doing intervals as steady riding), so for the math to pan out, they need to save more than 12 seconds with a lighter bike on the climb.

Rene Cavagna, who has the best time did no bike change. I don't think the weight of the TT bike is as much a penalty as what they lose in aero (even at low speed) + stoppage.
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Re: Xmas on ST: Tour de France ITT on Planche de Belle Filles [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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Didn't realize Macron was the guest the other day, that's cool! I'm certainly hoping for the best, and I think they did a great job this year considering all the challenges.

I think the bar is lower than Ewan set it, he was taking his time there. I'd expect it to be more efficient when yellow is on the line. Still rolling as car pulls up, no sip of the water bottle, tech probably hanging out the door with hands on the bike already.

As for what's more efficient, I'm curious whether it's just weight or if position is a factor. I recall an article about fit from long ago where Dan said he was out of aero for like 30s on the entire Kona bike course. But I could also see a preference for different position on flats vs a steep climb, especially for riders that are on their TT bike less than a lot of people around here.

Either way, this seems like an easier decision than in the past, since they can perfectly segregate TT and climb. It's not like the 'M' shaped profile a few years back where there was more variability in where you might want to swap.
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Re: Xmas on ST: Tour de France ITT on Planche de Belle Filles [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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Somebody pointed out that the race for polka dots is pretty much just Carapaz vs Roglic and Pogacar (i.e., mathematically impossible for Hirshi to still win), so that is a bit disappointing. I can't see Carapaz doing anything but soft-pedalling the first 30k and taking enough points to stay out front.

I think the good spectating will be trying to spot up and coming talent. Unless ASO decides to ban TTs from the Tour, I think all the future serious contenders will have to be at least passable TTers, so guys like Kamna, Hirshi, D and G Martin, Silvakov, Kuss,... will be interesting to watch. The one flaw I see with Ineos' rebuilding plans is that they have a team of 10 guys who are capable of a placing somewhere between 4th and 10th place at any Tour, but other than Porte there aren't many who can ride a decent flat TT. The Ineos/JV/Barhrain style of racing seems to be making the possible margins you can gain in the mountains really slim. You ride a fast enough tempo to burn out all but the 5 best climbers and sprint out the last 200 meters. The only stages where you can gain a minute are in the cross-winds/Paris-Roubaix style stages and TTs.
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Re: Xmas on ST: Tour de France ITT on Planche de Belle Filles [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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Is Jumbo A/B testing a bike change with WvA and Dumolin? Is it possible they haven't decided what Roglic will do before the start?

What a stage!
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Re: Xmas on ST: Tour de France ITT on Planche de Belle Filles [bgoldstein] [ In reply to ]
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bgoldstein wrote:
Is Jumbo A/B testing a bike change with WvA and Dumolin? Is it possible they haven't decided what Roglic will do before the start?

What a stage!

I don't think it's an accident Roglic switched bikes immediately after Dumoulin finished. WvA was faster up the climb than Dumoulin (other factors at play there too, I know). But also Roglic went for the exchange at an odd point - later than where everyone else did it.

I think Jumbo thought they were being clever but I don't think it was executed well.
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Re: Xmas on ST: Tour de France ITT on Planche de Belle Filles [bgoldstein] [ In reply to ]
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Pogacar is killing it. Also Roglic's bike change 👎might even get a penalty for that long ass push.

What's your CdA?
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Re: Xmas on ST: Tour de France ITT on Planche de Belle Filles [G. Belson] [ In reply to ]
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G. Belson wrote:
Pogacar is killing it. Also Roglic's bike change 👎might even get a penalty for that long ass push.

Wow. What a ride. Pretty sure he'll end up taking polka dot too with that ride.
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Re: Xmas on ST: Tour de France ITT on Planche de Belle Filles [bgoldstein] [ In reply to ]
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He gets yellow, dots, and white. Amazing performance.
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Re: Xmas on ST: Tour de France ITT on Planche de Belle Filles [FFigawi] [ In reply to ]
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God loves a Tester 😁
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Re: Xmas on ST: Tour de France ITT on Planche de Belle Filles [longtrousers] [ In reply to ]
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longtrousers wrote:
devashish_paul wrote:
longtrousers wrote:
Looking forward to it. Who does not remember Fignon-Lemond.


The spread for Roglic vs Pogacar going in is similar to Fignon-Lemond. I don't think Primoz is showing up with no "triathlon bars" though.


Without a helmet and with small metal glasses.

I think we jinxed Roglic....I found myself cheering for Pogacar until suddenly I felt like I was crying for Roglic!
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Re: Xmas on ST: Tour de France ITT on Planche de Belle Filles [bgoldstein] [ In reply to ]
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bgoldstein wrote:
bgoldstein wrote:
Is Jumbo A/B testing a bike change with WvA and Dumolin? Is it possible they haven't decided what Roglic will do before the start?

What a stage!


I don't think it's an accident Roglic switched bikes immediately after Dumoulin finished. WvA was faster up the climb than Dumoulin (other factors at play there too, I know). But also Roglic went for the exchange at an odd point - later than where everyone else did it.

I think Jumbo thought they were being clever but I don't think it was executed well.


It almost looked like Roglic was on the wrong bike....is that even possible? His position looked quite a bit lower than other stages on that road bike...but maybe I was hallucinating.
Last edited by: devashish_paul: Sep 19, 20 11:56
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Re: Xmas on ST: Tour de France ITT on Planche de Belle Filles [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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I was genuinely thinking "your seat's too high" the whole time. Hips were rocking quite a bit, even early in the stage. I hope that wasn't the issue and it was just an off day.
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Re: Xmas on ST: Tour de France ITT on Planche de Belle Filles [bgoldstein] [ In reply to ]
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T

his is heartbreaking seeing Primoz sitting on the ground after all these days in yellow (pic from velonews.com)



31 years later after Figon's hearbreak. Have we seen one like that in between?


Last edited by: devashish_paul: Sep 19, 20 18:13
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Re: Xmas on ST: Tour de France ITT on Planche de Belle Filles [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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devashish_paul wrote:
I found myself cheering for Pogacar until suddenly I felt like I was crying for Roglic!

Team Ritchie Porte; just making it past Stage 9 was an accomplishment, now a Podium

"Isn't RandMart the old punk rock dude who had the crazy ex? Then this post checks out"

Stop-Think-Consider-Do
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Re: Xmas on ST: Tour de France ITT on Planche de Belle Filles [RandMart] [ In reply to ]
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RandMart wrote:
devashish_paul wrote:
I found myself cheering for Pogacar until suddenly I felt like I was crying for Roglic!


Team Ritchie Porte; just making it past Stage 9 was an accomplishment, now a Podium

Keep in mind Richie just did his ITT "practice" 2 days ago after his puncture on the gravel.

He was looking awesome all day today:


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Re: Xmas on ST: Tour de France ITT on Planche de Belle Filles [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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I sure hope we get to see a healthy Remco square off against Pogocar at some races next year.

I can't believe the youth movement. The old CW was that a rider hit their peak GC capability at about 27 or 28. Other than Kristoff, I can't think of anyone much over 25 winning a stage. If it weren't for shaving his legs, I don't know that a guy like Kamna or Pogacar would actually own a razor.
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