Did macca do the olympic trials before or after his last win?

Is it still possible for Sebastian and Boris to sign up?

To be perfectly honest he's going to struggle a bit unless he can hang on in the swim. Over a 750m swim it would maybe be a bit easier, but I think 1500m will isolate him. And the majority of the bike lap is a drag strip out and back along the coast. The field isn't top notch but even factoring that in it'll be tough for him.

In terms of making the Olympic team there is literally no chance to even get in the top 140. Better fields would await him next spring and the type of improvements he'd need are probably stretching it a bit. Good luck to him though.

To be perfectly honest he's going to struggle a bit unless he can hang on in the swim//

I think everyone can agree with this, and that is the question I suppose he hopes to answer, for us and him. Like I said, I bet his pool swimming is a notch better than his Kona times would suggest, so he probably knows something we don't. I see most of those ITU swims now as one long, thin line. Guys at the front are the break, back 15 to 20 and you are now 2nd pack, last 1/3 are 3rd pack. All this without a break in the line too, but front to back is about a minute+, so that is all it takes to sever them into 3 groups. He needs to be close enough to be able to bridge to that 2nd group pretty quickly, that is where his cycling will be beneficial. Then it is all about how the race plays out from there, sometimes they catch, sometimes not. With him as a helper and driver, it now becomes more likely they do, and perhaps a few that were unwilling or soft pedaling before, will join in more eagerly, knowing chances just went up dramatically that a catch is possible..

Gonna be fun either way, I will give him a couple shots at it before throwing any shade on his dream. He has already surpassed any guess I would have had for him in ironman, if I were to go back a few years when he first came over, so who knows?

Slightly off-topic, and posted to the forum in general, but on Cam's blog post he said he'd already qualified for Kona 2020. I thought only the podium qualified for the following year, but is it instead the top 5?

He's already qualified from winning the Ironman he did 3 weeks before Kona.

It'll be interesting either way. My advice to him would be speed, speed, speed. That first 400m will make or break him. And then he has to be fresh enough for that big effort in the first 5 mins of the bike. In Kona he has the luxury of saving a bit for the bike on the swim. That might be a bigger factor - How fucked is he after the swim?

World Cups can be slightly different from WTS in that fields can be a little more strung on the swim which may work to his advantage. I'd be surprised if he's within 90 secs of the lead after the swim. In a WTS that would be fatal, but not so much in a WC.

Ah yes, I forgot about that one. Thanks.

The swim is just so difficult and especially for a non swimmer like him. And good pool splits or not don’t really get you ready for that intensity.

And for me it’s not the start...it’s what happens the next 12 mins of the swim that is key. No amount of drafting will help if you can’t get into tempo rhythm just less than that hard pace. And of course we are talking about an aerobic style effort for IM vs the itu intensity.

ETA: my advice would be to swim just below red line or else he’s f’d at the start. I’ve found chase pack swimmers can do better and be fresher sitting at 95% vs going 110% when in reality they can’t do that to begin with. They are actually able to swim faster overall cus they don’t drop off so hard from the “max” effort the front goes at.


Kinda crazy what he’s doing but also he’s putting himself out there so props for that.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

What does the field look like in this kind of event format? Is it 20 elite 17-18 minute swimmers that can run 30-32 min for 10km just like yokohama? or will it be easier?

the front group is likely to be smaller which is also going to be the chase group’s benefit. I see only a handful of true front pack athletes but varga is there so it’s likely to push the swim. Maybe he strings it out more.

But more importantly wurf is coming off 2 IM’s within 6 weeks of this event. I cant really see a lot of specificity and if he kept it within 1:45 gap I’d call that huge success in T1.

He’ll id call success leaving this event within the time cut off. I don’t think he’s going to have a lot of “pop” in the legs which is super critical at key parts and then not so critical. Of course his race is going to have to be on the whole time when your that far back.

Good for him for giving it a go, for whatever reason he’s choosing.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Cam may be in for a rude awakening or we all might be in for a big surprise. Either way with Royle not racing this one Aus are about to slip out of the 3rd spot points I think.

will he be close to last out of the swim?

will he be close to last out of the swim?

NO reason not to think he wouldn't be, I think ITU has winnowed down the non competitive swimmers over the years. If you can't get into a decent bike path, what's the point? I hope he is in the pool right now doing 100's/50's/25's. His endurance base is so big right now, a couple k's of all out sprints is all he should be doing, maybe even a couple doubles in there too. It's a full assault on getting as much speed as his body will allow swimming, everything else, well same thing really, just won't matter much if falls off the back and loses an appreciable amount of time.


But remember, you can be last out of the swim, and still on someones feet, maybe many someones. That is what he needs to do right now, just be in the race and not have it over in the first 1k..

A great retro full vid of the 2008 Olympic tri - some amazing close up footage during the swim gives you an idea of the speed needed to be up front...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4pWLgf_AIBE

Frodo showing Brownlee who was boss 11 years ago.. :-)

A great retro full vid of the 2008 Olympic tri - some amazing close up footage during the swim gives you an idea of the speed needed to be up front...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4pWLgf_AIBE //

Thanks so much for putting up that great bit of history. I had forgotten so much about that race, and of course seeing it now with my eyes now, so much more is evident. First and foremost, take a look at Shane Reed from NZL leading the entire swim. He was doing the 2/3/2 breathing I think before we knew about it. Would have to go look back when Gary Hall wrote his famous article here, but Shane had to be one of the first, if not the first to rock that breathing pattern. No wonder no one could ever come around him, he was getting a 1/3 more air than everyone else! And funny that you still don't see much of that out there, folks still just doing what the coach said 20 years ago, even after Sun Yang set WR's with it in the pool too.

And all those guys look like kids! Allistar showing that he was the pacesetter in the run, until I dont know what happened to him. But I bet it was this day that he and his brother decided, no more one pack run starts. No doubt he went home and first thing was to start some bike racing. Its kind of funny now, but I guess that is how a lot of old ITU races went back in the day, all 3 bike packs would come together and it was a mass 10k running race. And it looked to me that Javier grabbed his side a couple times, maybe the same side stitch that plagued him at worlds 70.3 last year? And I bet everyone thought after Simon Whitfield was let back on the group of 3, that it was his race to lose. And it really looked that way, except for a little known athlete from Germany, Jan Frondeno.

What a great race to watch now, so many still racing in the twilight of their careers, many out to pasture. Loved seeing Rasmus Henning up there setting pace late in the run, he and Ali would pay dearly for that later..

Being an central america race there's always local athletes that are very much "developing" athletes, so my guess is he'll be on of the last 8, but probaly 1 min + ahead of the last athlete. Granted it's a world cup and so they don't put in just anyone, but the local athletes in that region usually aren't up to that level.

If this was a normal world cup in say euro or aussie, yes he'd be last out of the water. Not many people want to race itu with likely the swim he'll have. It doesn't last long nor make sense too. But this could be a racevacation, or truly just a "let's see how it works" and Wurf actually gives this race some persona, so it'll be good for everyone.


I hope/think/assume .org/live will cover it like they have most other WC's......i hope!!!

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Agree! This is classic and fascinating to watch after having just watched Kona and see some of the same guys 11 years earlier racing all out for glory. Top 6 halfway through the run a who's who...Brownlee, Gomez, Rana, Docherty, Frodeno, Whitfield...running together near their limit. And love that their's no commentary, just great pictures and sound, feels like you're right there.

Depends on what programme he follows ;-) haha

Because his swim is weak? Wurf is strong enough and skilled enough to make back most, if not all of that time. Especially if the bike is neutralised because the lead pack are eyeing each other off before the run. At the very least, it will make the weaker riders work and take some risks.

Ever watched an ITU race lately?

Itu coverage is only available pay per view right?

Not all of it is pay per view. And the yearly subscription to triathlonlive.tv is the cost of one single meal so not much of a barrier.

Will be super cheap for end of season, can purchase a month rather than season. Superleague will also be broadcasting on it so worth the cost for a weekend viewing.

He's at the top level at what he does, and that's Ironman, not draft legal ITU racing.