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Wurf’s chance to podium?
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Or possibly even win?

After watching a couple recent interviews with him I’m wondering what do you all think his chances to podium or possibly to even win?
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Re: Wurf’s chance to podium? [RBR] [ In reply to ]
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Possibly podium IMO. Will depend how others go though. Not convinced he'll hold it together on the run but I like the guy and hope he does well
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Re: Wurf’s chance to podium? [RBR] [ In reply to ]
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I'm pulling for him. Hope he hammers the bike, gets a nice big lead for the run ad flips off all the competitors as he passes them at points in the race! Getsome Cam!!!!!
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Re: Wurf’s chance to podium? [RBR] [ In reply to ]
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I think it's going to depend on his swim. He's got to start the ride ahead of Lionel and Sebi.

Strava I Instagram I Team Every Man Jack I #cleanupnice
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Re: Wurf’s chance to podium? [RBR] [ In reply to ]
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Slim to none.

He'll ride too hard and won't have it on the run.
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Re: Wurf’s chance to podium? [ In reply to ]
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According to the post he made on July 31 in his Instagram about the run...

"cjwurf: I'm a 2:58 guy"
Last edited by: s13tx: Oct 11, 18 13:59
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Re: Wurf’s chance to podium? [RBR] [ In reply to ]
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None. His run PB is 2:58 in nice, cool Switzerland. Even with another course record bike split he'll need at least 2:55 for a shot at the podium, but more likely 2:50

808 > NYC > PDX
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Re: Wurf’s chance to podium? [hadukla] [ In reply to ]
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His run PB is 2'52"...
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Re: Wurf’s chance to podium? [s13tx] [ In reply to ]
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s13tx wrote:
According to the post he made on July 31 in his Instagram about the run...

"cjwurf: I'm a 2:58 guy"

He did t another IM after that and did 2:52

In his interview on Triathlon Taren a few hours ago said he’s pacing to beat not just the bike course record but the race course refined

Who knows
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Re: Wurf’s chance to podium? [RBR] [ In reply to ]
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After watching his interview with BwB, it sounds like hes not going for his own record but rather ride smart enough for him to run solid off the bike and run with the likes of Sebi, and Sanders
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Re: Wurf’s chance to podium? [RBR] [ In reply to ]
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None.
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Re: Wurf’s chance to podium? [Tall_Coffee] [ In reply to ]
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Tall_Coffee wrote:
After watching his interview with BwB, it sounds like hes not going for his own record but rather ride smart enough for him to run solid off the bike and run with the likes of Sebi, and Sanders

Check out his interview a couple hours ago on triathlon taren.

Says he’s going for the course record
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Re: Wurf’s chance to podium? [RBR] [ In reply to ]
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Wanted to also add, if he can swim with Starky then things will get very interesting. That's what I'm hoping for anyway, will be highly entertaining...

Strava I Instagram I Team Every Man Jack I #cleanupnice
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Re: Wurf’s chance to podium? [RBR] [ In reply to ]
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Going for the course record.


He may be able to do it if he rides like last year and can run under 2:56
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Re: Wurf’s chance to podium? [Sean H] [ In reply to ]
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Agreed. The most interesting aspect of the race to me is how far amberger gets out, how far back are wurf/starky, have far back are sanders/Kienle, how far back are others like Lange. Wurf/Starky may mess up this race for many others. And where does Gomez fit into all of that???

So Wurf win? No. Podium? Fighter’s chance.
Last edited by: DFW_Tri: Oct 11, 18 14:40
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Re: Wurf’s chance to podium? [Sean H] [ In reply to ]
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Wanted to also add, if he can swim with Starky then things will get very interesting.//

You mean if he swims with Josh dont you?? Same thing. I dont understand how some of you think he magically is going to get 4 or 5 minutes faster between now and Saturday(you are not the only one who has thought this a possibility). For pondering, it is a toss up if Starky will swim with Josh(or Josh group), and a toss up if Wurf can even swim with Sanders and Keinle. Those two toss ups are at least 4 minutes apart, so how is the latter going to jump to the former??
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Re: Wurf’s chance to podium? [monty] [ In reply to ]
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Starkys Swim isn’t what it used to be. He even admits that. If josh goes 47, Starky won’t be there.

Wurf is a better swimmer than what he showed last year.

I’m with you though that it’s a small chance Wurf can stay with the group starky is in.

Strava I Instagram I Team Every Man Jack I #cleanupnice
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Re: Wurf’s chance to podium? [hadukla] [ In reply to ]
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hadukla wrote:
None. His run PB is 2:58 in nice, cool Switzerland. Even with another course record bike split he'll need at least 2:55 for a shot at the podium, but more likely 2:50
This. I don't think he can run a 2:55 in Kona, at least not yet. I also think there's a real chance he overbikes.
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Re: Wurf’s chance to podium? [monty] [ In reply to ]
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I think Wurf plans to hammer the swim and Bike. He knows he needs a big lead into T2 to have a chance. He's gotta know that getting with Starky is his best bet for that. Maybe he can't, but I'd guess he goes for broke on the swim this year. I'm not sure his potential to do this, but I'd think that's gotta be his plan. He can NOT go into T2 with the main pack, good runners, close behind.
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Re: Wurf’s chance to podium? [Culley22] [ In reply to ]
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Anyone else follow Wurf on Strava? He doesn't seem to taper too much, with 2 120km rides earlier in the week, although I guess that may be a taper for him? heh
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Re: Wurf’s chance to podium? [Culley22] [ In reply to ]
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 think Wurf plans to hammer the swim and Bike. He knows he needs a big lead into T2 to have a chance. He's gotta know that getting with Starky is his best bet for that//

You can only swim to the limit of your abilities, thus he is going to be chasing for sometime. But I have said it before several times, I expect that the uber bikers are going to catch Starky at some point, and unless he is blown, he will hang to T2 with them. Wurf's problem is that 2 of those uberbikers are also very good runners, both who could win the race outright. And then you have the 2nd wave of uberrunners, many of which are going to run 2;40 +/-. So if he wants to win, he needs 10 to 15 minutes on the uberbikers, and 20 to the uber runners.


I dont think I have to explain the law of diminishing returns on a minute gained on the bike, equals more minutes on the run at some point past your ability. And all those gaps are well past his ability, so one could expect him not running close to what he has before. But all this talks about winning is really pointless, he is not going to win, or be top 3 even. I just dont know what his race plan is, to get the bike record by crushing it, or ride within himself and try for his best possible place on the day. Those two do not go together, and will be very observable around mile 80 or so I would say. Same goes for Starky, only I will lean heavily that he will ride too hard and not run very well. He is just no good in the heat, so his hail Mary's in other ironman where he could hold on to a good place, or even win, is not an option here with the field assembled..
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Re: Wurf’s chance to podium? [RBR] [ In reply to ]
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RBR wrote:
s13tx wrote:
According to the post he made on July 31 in his Instagram about the run...

"cjwurf: I'm a 2:58 guy"


He did t another IM after that and did 2:52

In his interview on Triathlon Taren a few hours ago said he’s pacing to beat not just the bike course record but the race course refined

Who knows

Go Gwen! Oops sorry, wrong thread.

I kid of course. You can't deny the similarity of an "outsider" coming in to a new sport and trying to dominate within two years. I, for one, like big talk. I'll still root for Lange (and Gomez), but I'll keep my eye on this fella.
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Re: Wurf’s chance to podium? [monty] [ In reply to ]
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monty wrote:
think Wurf plans to hammer the swim and Bike. He knows he needs a big lead into T2 to have a chance. He's gotta know that getting with Starky is his best bet for that//

You can only swim to the limit of your abilities, thus he is going to be chasing for sometime. But I have said it before several times, I expect that the uber bikers are going to catch Starky at some point, and unless he is blown, he will hang to T2 with them. Wurf's problem is that 2 of those uberbikers are also very good runners, both who could win the race outright. And then you have the 2nd wave of uberrunners, many of which are going to run 2;40 +/-. So if he wants to win, he needs 10 to 15 minutes on the uberbikers, and 20 to the uber runners.


I dont think I have to explain the law of diminishing returns on a minute gained on the bike, equals more minutes on the run at some point past your ability. And all those gaps are well past his ability, so one could expect him not running close to what he has before. But all this talks about winning is really pointless, he is not going to win, or be top 3 even. I just dont know what his race plan is, to get the bike record by crushing it, or ride within himself and try for his best possible place on the day. Those two do not go together, and will be very observable around mile 80 or so I would say. Same goes for Starky, only I will lean heavily that he will ride too hard and not run very well. He is just no good in the heat, so his hail Mary's in other ironman where he could hold on to a good place, or even win, is not an option here with the field assembled..

My 2 cents is that Wurf needs Sebi and Lionel to ride with him TTT so he personally does not overbike and so the three collectively can have a faster split than solo and have padding on uber runners.

Then each of these three guys who are allies on the bike have to defeat each other on the run and defeat the uber runners.

It's like a slowmotion Tour de France 5 hour breakaway, where you are wondering if the breakaway can succeed, but rather than waiting for the final 1 km where the breakaway become rivals with each other, we get 42 km to see that play out. Cam kind of needs both Kienle and Sanders to crumble on the run to defeat both. Maybe one, but both seems to be a tall order....and on top of that hold off Gomez, Currie, Lange, McNamee etc etc.
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Re: Wurf’s chance to podium? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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My guess is he will be 6 mins faster in the swim, approx the same time as last year on the bike and considerably faster in the run
Last edited by: RBR: Oct 11, 18 15:55
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Re: Wurf’s chance to podium? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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devashish_paul wrote:
monty wrote:
think Wurf plans to hammer the swim and Bike. He knows he needs a big lead into T2 to have a chance. He's gotta know that getting with Starky is his best bet for that//

You can only swim to the limit of your abilities, thus he is going to be chasing for sometime. But I have said it before several times, I expect that the uber bikers are going to catch Starky at some point, and unless he is blown, he will hang to T2 with them. Wurf's problem is that 2 of those uberbikers are also very good runners, both who could win the race outright. And then you have the 2nd wave of uberrunners, many of which are going to run 2;40 +/-. So if he wants to win, he needs 10 to 15 minutes on the uberbikers, and 20 to the uber runners.


I dont think I have to explain the law of diminishing returns on a minute gained on the bike, equals more minutes on the run at some point past your ability. And all those gaps are well past his ability, so one could expect him not running close to what he has before. But all this talks about winning is really pointless, he is not going to win, or be top 3 even. I just dont know what his race plan is, to get the bike record by crushing it, or ride within himself and try for his best possible place on the day. Those two do not go together, and will be very observable around mile 80 or so I would say. Same goes for Starky, only I will lean heavily that he will ride too hard and not run very well. He is just no good in the heat, so his hail Mary's in other ironman where he could hold on to a good place, or even win, is not an option here with the field assembled..


My 2 cents is that Wurf needs Sebi and Lionel to ride with him TTT so he personally does not overbike and so the three collectively can have a faster split than solo and have padding on uber runners.

Then each of these three guys who are allies on the bike have to defeat each other on the run and defeat the uber runners.

It's like a slowmotion Tour de France 5 hour breakaway, where you are wondering if the breakaway can succeed, but rather than waiting for the final 1 km where the breakaway become rivals with each other, we get 42 km to see that play out. Cam kind of needs both Kienle and Sanders to crumble on the run to defeat both. Maybe one, but both seems to be a tall order....and on top of that hold off Gomez, Currie, Lange, McNamee etc etc.


I think he knows he has to be in front of both of them into T2. Maybe he does that in the last few miles and tries to break away, but really I think he doesn't want to be "with them" as pulling away would be hard as well as if it's enough as they are better runners. I'd think he'd prefer to not even see them on the bike and hope Starky and him can do the necessary work for that to happen.

He has Starky's race strategy: go hard and win or blow up trying. But he has to put pressure on the guys that can out run him, and the only way to do that is to have them overbike to catch him. My opinion anyways.
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