After seeing the men on the bike course, I think the only chance for someone to win from the break is Flora Duffy.

Can someone please post the link to the live feed again, like they did with the mens. That was very helpful. And what time Pacific coast time does it start?

Thanks

7am Pacific time

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Here is the link for US viewers.

This link has the start list and will have splits under the "Results" tab.

I think the women can get a break on Gwen by following the Brownlees example and using the hill.
I've read that Gwen is not comfortable descending and is terrified of the descent here (last week's Sports Illustrated). I think they can use that to their advantage. Whether or not they can get far enough ahead that she won't still catch them anyway is the question.
The women's podium is so tough to predict. I feel like there are at least 10 women that could be on there

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Team Every Man Jack

Go Flora!!!

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Watching Jorgensen chase Duffy on the run, is like watching a shark chase a cute little seal.

You have to really hope Duffy gets away.

I don't see Gwen getting gold. She has a good start position, but if Flora attacks the bike and Spirig can bridge after the swim an go with, the race will ride away from Gwen. The hill/descent does not favor her at all. I don't think she has 90 seconds to give up tomorrow.

Any other American's feeling internally conflicted? On the one hand I want Gwen to win because,....go America. On the other hand I really would love to see a breakaway on the bike for entertainment purposes. Who else could go with Duffy? Gentle if she has a good swim? Spirig? Guess I'll hope for a massive breakaway on the bike and Gwen to finally close it down with a sprint past Duffy in the finishers chute!

I think Gwen's only real risk of not winning gold, is bike crash or mechanical.

http://olympics.cbc.ca/...0/index.html?intcmp=[#]-schline-calltoaction

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res, non verba

Interesting story in the NYT today on Jorgensen's mental prep for tomorrow - http://well.blogs.nytimes.com/...on-is-a-mental-race/

Who do you think is feeling/felt more pressure to win: Jorgensen or the Aussie ladies in the Oly tri debut in Sydney in 2000?

I agree. I reckon Spirig is gonna shock them on the bike and hold off GJ on the run. Duffy should make the bike work for her but will be watching over her shoulder. I actually put money down today for Spirig to take gold.

I'm a bit concerned that Jorgensen might mentally crumble in tomorrow's race - particular in terms of a front pack of Duffy and a few others on the bike dropping her and then feeling the need to over do it on the descents.

I think Spirig will be over a minute down after the swim.

The only way Gentle and Spirig get in a break with Duffy is if the break doesn't go until the entire field is together. Possible, but I don't see Duffy sitting around waiting for them to make up the minute plus deficit out of the water.

 
First lap of the bike will be crucial yet again. Gwen's the odds on favourite but as the old saying goes there's many a slip twix' cup and lip. I'll be rooting for a Jenkins / Hewitt / Spirig / Duffy group riding away on lap 1, with Gwen running from 2 minutes down would make for an exciting final run.

I believe Brett Sutton's earlier comments re Helen Jenkins being the main beneficiary of the US selection will actually prove the irony of the race.... I have a feeling 3 of the above 4 will be in the break and Nicola will end up dragging Gwen up to within striking distance....we'll see.

Be exciting for sure however it un-folds.

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Any chance the US women help each other out at all? Their positioning provides them the opportunity to work together. I know they are all contenders, but any chance they agree to help each other get to the run then every woman for themselves? I realize this means Gwen very likely wins the gold, however if they don't, there is a good chance other groups work to distance them and the result is no podium spots for the US at all.

If spirig is 20s behind Duffy, which means she's likely behind Gwen, there is zero chance she's going to bike through the front group + catch Duffy.

If she swims front pack that would be one of greatest swims ever, right? That's only chance she catches Duffy. Now she doesn't need to catch Duffy cus of stronger run.

But there is zero chance she solos all the way up to Duffy, if Duffy attacks from start.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

id suggest her risk of not winning gold really comes from not being front pack in the swim and then being 2nd pack on the bike and having to push it. Then it's all on for the run.

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I don't really care how it unfolds, it's our first realistic chance at a gold medal in a really long time. Brian wellman was the only other shot that I can think of, triple jumper back in the 90's who was ranked as high as 3rd in the world, IIRC.

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My top 3 prediction

Spirig (Mainly cause like Alistair, she will turn on the hurt like no one else in that field will!)
Jenkins (But could be any of the Brit girls!)
Duffy (Probably not got the run for the win, but with expected break away like Schoeman yesterday will hold 3rd.

Jorgensen is obviously the massive favourite, but I just get a feeling that this wont be her day (no science to that btw) Something silly like a puncture or losing time in T1 to the others may rattle her too much

She may not win, but I can't see her "mentally breaking".

You are talking about the greatest female athlete ever. She may get beat and good on that person if it happens, but mental fatigue I don't think will be reason why.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Nope - I want to see the 3 American's in the lead pack on the bike. Then Gwen pulls the other 2 away from the rest of the field for about 5k and then she runs away with the other 2 taking Silver and Bronze.

This. 'Cause........'Murica!!!!

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