I would part Larsen on the podium. He has switched back to his older training style that made his run faster. Plus he has shown good form in the early cycling season (8th at Sea Otter).

I pick Brown to win it all. To bad I will be almost 2 hours behind them all :(

Reverend Dr. Jay

PS Hopefully it does not rain.

Lessing and Walton take the swim out hard, Walton drops Lessing on the bike, Lieto chases down Walton and then Reid, DeBoom and Browne chase down Walton / Lieto on the run.

My money's on Walton holding them all off if he can break with lessing in the water.

I typically like the way that Walton races (off the front, full gas) and I hope that he has a good day on saturday. I wonder if the run course will suit a big guy like him.

my pick is lessing for the men. i think most americans have no idea how good this guy is. many people consider him the best triathlete in the world. macca demonstrated that a short course athlete can step up to the half iron distance without too much trouble. lessing doesn't give up anything to waldo on the bike, and he can definitely out run him. it is definitely a stacked field though. looking forward to being a spectator.

waldo commented two years ago that macca, being a little lighter on his feet, had the advantage on the run.

as for the women, it's a little more wide open and lacks some of the star power of the men's field. i'd have to give the nod to joanna lawn coming off her big win at imnz.

brent

Walton is my sentimental favorite -- I love the way he races, and he did well (won) at Pucon 1/2 Ironman last spring over Macca.

Okay, Widoff is my other sentimental favorite. Go USA. He races Wildflower with more guts than anybody.

Lessing will be tough. He seems to be working with Dave Scott in Boulder, he's done very well at NICE (very hilly 3/4 length Ironman) and has the short-course speed. I never cared for him in his ITU days -- probably just a general disinterest in draft racing. He has impressed me over the last few months.

Are we forgetting about the defending champ? Not even a mention of Macca???

What I've heard is Macca is not racing Wildflower this year.

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Embrace the suck--Anon.

Eagles Race Team--Napa CA

Walto or Lieto... overdue... too fast for words

I doubt that there is anyone lessing cant hang with on the swim.

I dont know about the bike but if he can hang with Walton or vice versa they can just put time in to the entire field.

I am not sure that the long course guy's can make up that sort of time over a half, it's to short IMO for them to bridge the kind of gap that certainly Walton and Macca have shown can be put in to them on the swim and the bike.

Simon Lessing,

and go to www.yaquiusa.com to see why!

Go Simon!!!!!!!!

kcwii - Macca is staying in Australia to prepare for Hawaii this year and has chosen not to race Wildflower. I've heard that he will head over to the US for some races but not sure whether he's announced which races he'll do.

As for Wildflower - I can't see anyone beating Craig Walton if he's on form. No one can match him in the swim. Last person I saw swim with him was the Frenchman Ben Sanson. On the bike, Waldo is at least as good as Steve Larsen but Larsen will be way behind after the swim. Whilst running is not Waldo's strength, he's still capable of going under 1:15 for 21km. That will mean the De Boom's and Brown's will need to run like Kenyans to catch him.

Waldo "is at least as good" as Larsen on the bike? Where does this come from?

This should be a great race. No predictions from this corner.

Frank

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Frank,
An original Ironman and the Inventor of PowerCranks

Lessing could take Walton on the swim......I dont know that he will but he very well could.

Macca will probably come back for at least Lifetime Fitness, he can make bank there so I am sure that is one race he'll be here for along with the DeBooms, Lessing, Walton and I cant remember who else.

Frank - my comment that Craig Walton "is at least as good" as Larsen on the bike comes from the races over the last two years where they have been head to head. Their times (along with Macca's) were proximate and Waldo may in fact have been quicker.

Yes, I acknowledge that Steve Larsen is a great cyclist and has turned in some very fast performances. They have, however, been in races where Waldo didn't race. I'm not taking anything away from Steve Larsen - I just think I think that Waldo could match those times.

Frank - just checked some results and I apologise - Larsen did ride quicker than Walton.

Still, given Walton's superior swim, I wouldn't expect Larsen to catch him! ;-)

I'd have to go with Brent...besides, remember that Lessing has raced long already...
he won Nice in 1995...remember who was 2nd and 3rd? that was Luc Van Lierde and Peter Reid.

I think Steve won't be back as far as most people think after the swim. Looked like he'd learned to swim in New Zealand. No, not like a Walton, but much better than the last couple of years.

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clm
Nashville, TN
https://twitter.com/ironclm | http://ironclm.typepad.com

Walto leading the swim and blazing the bike but......a chase pack forms: Lieto, Mcrae, & Larsen ride each other into the ground on the chase. (I expect to see one of these three w/ the fastest bike split)

I think the order at T2 will be vastly different than the order at the finish line with mass attrition on the brutal run course.

My Top five:

Craig Walton
Cameron Widoff
Simon Lessing
Tim DeBoom
Cameron Brown

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"The more you sweat today, the less you bleed tomorrow"

Since my fav Triathlete (after Courtney Atkinson) is Walton, my bid's on him. I'm betting he'll have atleast 10 by the end of the swim, and if he can go through T1 fast, he'll be the first on the bike, and my bet is no one will pass him for the rest of the day. All he needs is to hold on during the run in order to win.

Too bad this isn't an M-Dot Sanctioned event, that way we can see their live update thing (which really rocks).

Mark C - I think you've got it nailed. Walton, Lieto, McRae, Larsen lead it out of T2 but all get passed by the greyhounds. I think Deboom or Lessing takes it.

And my guess is it goes well under 4:00:00. This may be one of the best fields ever outside of Hawaii.

Like many folks, I'm a big Walton fan (Larsen, too).

But, this race will come down to the last kilo between DeBoom and Lessing.

Wild card: Larsen is an outstanding uphill runner.

I love Larsen. Besides Peter Reid (and myself :)), he's my favorite triathlete. However, Lessing i think has the guns to take this. DeBoom won't see him in the last km. Not a chance. And it won't go under 4. Macca is one of the best non-drafting triathletes at the olympic distence, and he only went 4:03 and change. and that was on a perfect day. he was pushed by other fast athletes. Way under four is out of the question.

tommy

I think a half is to short for the long course guy's to get up to speed.

Plus none of the long course guys could hang head to head with a short course guy in the swim or run......at least I dont think so.

Maybe I should have defined way under - what I meant was 3:58ish rather than 3:59:59.

McCormack went 4:00:12 in 2001 and Legh went 4:01:?? in 2000.

Deboom just ran 1:13 to win the Cali half where he was #2 on the bike (22 seconds behind Lieto). He was also #2 on the swim leg. My guess is he'll be somewhere near Lessing.

However, I watched Lessing stomp McCormack last year at Treasure Island, and he's definitely got the goods too.

Should be a great race - too bad I'll only see the swim part.