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Why runners (or triathletes) can’t be realistic about goal times.
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I ran the Marine Corps Marathon yesterday and once again felt apart about 20 miles into the race. After another failed attempt at running a good race, I was left to ponder why runners are so bad at setting realistic pacing goals during long distance events. I share these thoughts because I’m fairly sure I’m not alone in this problem.



I read Michael Johnson’s book Slaying the Dragon and in it he says that the idea of giving 110 percent is absurd. Each of us only has 100 percent to give and his feeling was that even that if you did everything right and all conditions came together at just the right time, most of us will still only reach close to that potential.



Therein lies the problem. We as athletes are optimists and want to perform to that unattainable 110 percent. We just can’t do it. The longer the event, the more this becomes evident as we see people walking at the end of marathons and Ironmans.



I woke up Sunday morning with a goal of 2:35-2:40 for the marathon. A 2:35 would be if I felt great, a 2:40 not so well. When I arrived at the race site it was 65 degrees, 90 percent humidity and windy. The intelligent runner should immediately say to themselves, “I need to slow down today and be conservative.” Was I that smart—no. I went out and ran close to six-minute miles until I fell apart and ran/walked to the end.



I suspect that I was not alone in my poor pacing because only 20-30 runners passed me during the six miles where my pace dropped from six-minute miles to nearly nine-minute miles. That tells me a lot of other people were having the same problems.



Before any of us step to the line for a marathon or Half-IM or longer distance triathlon, a vital part of our pre-race preparation needs to be a weather analysis. If 55 degrees, low humidity and no wind is the perfect day, then we need to think about those things and start changing our race plan to fit reality. I suspect that doing so will not only improve our race times, but make the whole experience much more enjoyable.
Last edited by: cdwalton: Oct 27, 03 12:33
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