Why not put me in Nascar? I do great at the go kart track.

You don't just decide to get 2 minutes faster in swimming, it takes time. I assume you are a triathlete, so you must know that when you are at your fittest and fastest, that progression comes slowly and methodically. And swimming is the worst of the 3 sports for making any big jumps. He will have to grind it out like everyone else did, either in their high school and college swimming days, or the years of that type of swimming as a triathlete. And without that speed to be top 20 in an ITU swim, the rest is just moot for now. IF he were two minutes faster swimming, perhaps he could get his bike good enough to hang with a moderate paced group, but that is not a given also. And then after all of that, guess what, his run is not going to be as good as everyone thinks it will be. I think I even heard that he did not have the fastest run in the junior race, so that tells us something right there.

But give the kid a couple years and he could be the next Brownlee or Gomez, at least he has the goods on paper. We have had our share of paper tigers here in the US, so I hope he breaks the mold and realizes his true potential..

I don't know how much he's been swimming, do you? I know it's easier to make gains when you're 18 and haven't spent a lot of time in the water.

And as I said, it would be taking a flyer. If you guys think we have a better chance to win Gold or Medal with what we've got, that's fine. But let's be honest-we don't. So why not take a chance?

If you think it's so far out of the realm of possibility that it's not worth considering, I'm ok with that too and you're probably right.

Come on Monty....we'll just put Lance on the team too so they can swim together a couple minutes back then Lance could pull Verzbicas to the front and he could run for the win :)....most everyone at slowtwitch would be happy - esp. if you threw Macca in there.

On a serious note - have you seen any of Verzbicas swim times? I only saw that he was about 30 sec back of the 1st swimmer at Junior Worlds. Also saw he swam a "hard" 100m repeat in 63 in a set of alternating easy/hard 100s (LC meters I think).

My main question is how much faster he could have become at running since he ran a 8:30 2 miler on 40 miles/wk at 18 years old.....and why he switched to tri?

Dave

+1 it took me from age 14 to 20 to go from 18:00 to 16:10 in the 1500

granted it was not a primary event for me

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Is Lance one of the 2 or 3 greatest American High School runners in history and the Junior World Triathlon Champion? If so, he should definitely get one of our 2 potentially discretionary slots, he sounds fast.

"Why he switched to tri" has its own thread.

Do you really think Luke is faster than Potts? Im not a data guy, but my gut tells me that Potts can spank Luke on any given day. And we all know that Andy can swim and is very passionate when it comes to racing. This kid just has NO proven past. I knew a guy who got Silver at worlds in collegiate, went Pro, and is getting his ass handed to him. I just dont see this rookie as elite of the elite, yet... my two cents. I also dont really give two shits



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Triathlon was started by a bunch of kids at the swimming hole, who heard the ice cream man. They swam to their bikes, chased down the truck, jumped off their bikes, and ran to be first in line.

I don't know how much he's been swimming, do you? I know it's easier to make gains when you're 18 and haven't spent a lot of time in the water. //

First off, how much you swim is not the issue, it is how "fast" do you swim. He has been a triathlete since a little nipper, so he has spent plenty of time in the water, just not the amount a full on high school swimmer would have. Yes he will make good gains at his age, but it still takes time. I'm not putting him in the category of some adult onset AG triathlete that just started swimming. He has been swimming and competiting in tris for quite sometime, so it is not some new thing where he has a large improvement curve.

And to your last point, why not put him on the team anyway? Because there are others that have worked very hard for a very long time to earn those spots. Perhaps they have no chance at a medal, but regardless, they will have earned their way onto our team. They deserve at least that much from us, not everyone gets a medal at the olympics, in fact most do not

My hypothetical has him racing his way to top-8 American, which I assume has to happen for him to be considered for one of the 2 discretionary spots. At that point he will be as worthy as any other athlete being considered. Keeping him off the team at that point simply because of some sort of misguided issue of fairness is, no offense intended, a loser's mentality.

Again, a lot has to happen for no Americans to race their way on the team and Lukas to race his way into the consideration pool.

LV is the fastest pure runner in the american ITU contingent. Internationally, he is not the fastest pure runner....i'd say he'd be around top 10 if you put all the top WCS guys in a track 10k.

It is just hard for me to believe that LV wouldn't get eaten alive by the WCS swim/bike at this point in time. Also, even to qualify for a discretionary don't you need to be top 120 ITU?

then again this is pure speculation...if London is a running race he might be our best bet. (a la gwen jorgensen). No men from the US have shown that they can run for a medal.

I'm with you. Get him to the front and let him run. (BIG) Question is, can we get him to the front?

I'm with Monty too, he needs to develop as a swimmer and biker, especially as a swimmer. This really should take awhile, but not always. Sometimes a guy will just get it and be swimming under 5 for the 500 after 6 months. It happens. At his point there is much better chance of LV swimming 4:50 by London than Charbot running onto the podium.

Bottom line, we have a piss poor shot at a medal, and LV may be the best long shot we have. I like how Verbicas races. He strikes me as a champion, whatever that means.

It maybe a running race for the top few that are able to stay with the Brits and co on the swim-bike. If you watch any of the ITU races you will know that what tends to happen is the swim is led out by the Brownlees and a couple of others with a largish group hanging on and then they go to work on the bike making it as hard as possible (flat or not), with a few others attempting a futile break cos they 'can't run' (all relative). LV wouldn't be anywhere near the group after the swim let alone even being able to hang in on the bike, so it being a running race is not true for LV. Plus, he doesn't race Olympic distance as far as I am aware to date.

I think the reason why we're all enjoying the speculation of having Lukas on the team in London is that we presume that if he rode, say, 4 laps of the bike in relative comfort with the lead group then he could come off and challenge Alistair and Jonny on the run. I feel like there's a consensus that if Lukas stepped off the bike with the best in the biz that he would run better than the best of our current American ITU triathletes. And, if all that matters are medals, then there would be no consideration of who's been at it longer or paid dues or deserves a trip to the Games...it just matters who can podium and if Lukas can assemble a swim/run to get him to that place. Tons of supposition but supposition that will need to happen if (and this is THE "if) he can even point up to a place where he's eligible to be considered in time and if nobody else finishes in the top 8 in San Diego on May 12 and if it all gets left up to the dreaded "discretionary" system.

It's been mentioned in this thread already and it's kind of fun to play with this idea (totally silly but fun to say out loud)...let's say we get only two slots and they are somehow give n to Lance and Lukas. The both exit the water in ~19:50, call it 3rd pack - What makes this fun to contemplate is watching Lance exit the water 5th at XTERRA Worlds near Frodeno and Rana. So.... Lukas kills himself on Lance's wheel while the pack is (praise be to Allah/Jesus/Buddah/whom ever you like) all staring at each other and after 4-5 laps Lance pulls Lukas up to the group. Then Lance protects, shepherds, and delivers Lukas to the dismount line in front and he runs the best he can putting the Brownlee bros and others in difficulty..

Either that or we as Jarrod and Manny to have a great day.

Ian

PS. Yes, ITU is about the swim and yes, Andy Potts gets through the water extremely well but the London podium is also about a 30 min 10k and Andy doesn't have that. I see Andy's name pushed about in this discussion but it doesn't seem logical.

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Ian Murray
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Potts and LV.

Potts leads him through the swim. covers any breaks by the contenders and sits in. "I'm not going to work, my boy is back in the peleton." he says to an irate Brownlee. LV sits in the peleton, taking the free ride to the front as the Canadians work to close the gap. "Why should I work, my boy Andy is in the break" says LV.

Both arrive to T2 with fresh legs, LV snaps off a 30 low for a bronze. Andy is the ultimate team player and has parade in his honor in NYC.

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Because there are others that have worked very hard for a very long time to earn those spots. Perhaps they have no chance at a medal, but regardless, they will have earned their way onto our team.

Its not that I disagree with that sentiment, but USAT is chartered to win medals, period. If they think no one else has a chance at a medal and LV show some development in swimming, and is eligeable he'll be on. USAT made way to big a play to get him to not put him on the team.

I'll go on record as predicting IF LV is a citizen and IF he is eligable for a the OG and if the US has a descretionary slot LV will get it.

In thesame vein do you think track and swimming should change how they pick teams. A Phelps could be WR holder and miss a slot due to illness on the day of trials.

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Styrrell

If USAT had the balls to discretionary pick Lance and LV that would be the most epic thing ever.

LV I can see, LA no way.

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Styrrell

Don't get your hopes up (not that I really think you are serious) but USAT only gets to make 1 discretionary choice, according to their selection procedure document. The other spot goes to the highest placed American at the San Diego race.

Why are we even talking medals at London? The only guy capable of winning a medal at London is Hunter Kemper.... no one else. You make it sound like all Lukas has to do is "bring his swim up" and he will win medals. Do you guys watch races or just look at results, "18:10 makes the front group, Lukas has to swim 18:10"... there are race dynamics that are not shown on paper...

How many WC races did Great Britain win prior to 2 years ago? How many races did Alistair win prior to 2 years ago?

There is a development process that has to be respected. Lukas winning medals will take years, it isn't going to happen over night.

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We're talking about medals because the OG are next year. No one in the US has a realistic shot. Kemper can't run with the top 5 anymore. In a year its possible that LV can. In astraight up 10K race I would bet on LV to be with the top runners in the sport in amonth or 2. Not saying he would win but he would be in the mix until a half mile to go at least.

The swim and the bike, mostly the swim are an issue, but LV has upside on the swim and bike, the rest of the US guys are proven commodities and they've been proven to be 10th at best.

Thats harsh on guys that I'm sure are training their guts out, but top level sports come with fans being harsh.

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Styrrell

No offense to Hunter, I have met him and talked to him a few times and he is an amazingly nice guy, but I just don't see him running sub 30 to be able to beat Gomez, and the Brownlees. Especially considering he got hurt once again, he is amazing at coming back but it takes more and more out of you everytime.

I do understand why we are talking medals... but thats the problem... realistically we don't have medal contenders for 2012.

In a year he may not even be a US citizen.

2012...Development
2016... Medal Contender.

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Inside The Big Ring: Podcast & Coaching

This is true. Lukas is a much better swimmer than he is given credit for. Ive swam with him before. IIRC, the set we did was 400yd, 4x200IM 10x100 3 times through. On every single 100 he was touching on the 58-1:01 and leaving on the 1:05. This was only a week into his comeback to triathlon in June, so he had litterally been in the pool maybe 1-2 other times before this. He is not a terrible swimmer. I think if he can deticate a bit more time to it, the swim will not be a huge weakness for him.

I doubt that he wins a medal but development will be the excuse if he is selected and he doesn't win a medal. USAT will remind everyone what a great experience for him it was and how that will benefit him in the next games. Its really a win / win situation for USAT. If he wins a medal in 2012 they are geniuses, if he doesn't they are forward thinking.

I'd much prefer they pick the team by having one race that duplicates the Oly course a 8-10 weeks out. Anyone in the US that is eligable for the games races and the 10 guys/girls go. Its simple and fair and gives enought time to peak for the trials and peak for the games.

Anytime teams are selected by commitee it seems arbitrary and screwed up.

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Styrrell