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Who Would Have Won Kona 2020?
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Ok, I've loved watching Kona each October and it's disappointing that we won't get to see it happen this year. But who do you think would have won it had they been able to race in 2020? Who do you think would have made the podium on the men's side and the women's?

Here are my picks:

Women's
1. Daniela Ryf
2. Lucy Charles
3. Heather Jackson

Men's
1. Alistair Brownlee
2. Lionel Sanders
3. Cody Beals

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Last edited by: mlegrand: Oct 3, 20 6:38
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Re: Who Would Have Won Kona 2020? [mlegrand] [ In reply to ]
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I wish this site supported eyeroll emojis.

***
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Re: Who Would Have Won Kona 2020? [mlegrand] [ In reply to ]
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mlegrand wrote:
Men's
1. Alister Brownlee
2. Lionel Sanders
3. Codey Beals

Thanks for the laugh.

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Re: Who Would Have Won Kona 2020? [mlegrand] [ In reply to ]
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Hard to say without much of a season to lead into it.
There is still a swim involved in the Hawaii race. As a result, I feel very confident saying L.S. and H.J. will not be on the podium, ever again.

In no particular order.

Haug, Ryf, Charles are hard to bet against. Haug is probably the least likely to podium. And most likely to win.

Frodeno, Skipper, Currie. I feel pretty confident Joe is figuring things out and going to beat basically everyone for a few years. Braden just needs the right day.
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Re: Who Would Have Won Kona 2020? [mlegrand] [ In reply to ]
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Lionel 2nd.....🤣
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Re: Who Would Have Won Kona 2020? [oprfcc] [ In reply to ]
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oprfcc wrote:
Hard to say without much of a season to lead into it.
There is still a swim involved in the Hawaii race. As a result, I feel very confident saying L.S. and H.J. will not be on the podium, ever again.

In no particular order.

Haug, Ryf, Charles are hard to bet against. Haug is probably the least likely to podium. And most likely to win.

Frodeno, Skipper, Currie. I feel pretty confident Joe is figuring things out and going to beat basically everyone for a few years. Braden just needs the right day.

..
Covid worked out well for Frodeno,Kona wise as he had a bad crash a couple of months ago and broke a few ribs and I believe also cracked a vertebra .He is recovering but would have been a non starter.

Here he is talking about it on Breakfast with Bob Kona Covid edition..
https://www.youtube.com/...QMfZe-6yy4Xiz-oRD3k0
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Re: Who Would Have Won Kona 2020? [mlegrand] [ In reply to ]
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mlegrand wrote:
Ok, I've loved watching Kona each October and it's disappointing that we won't get to see it happen this year. But who do you think would have won it had they been able to race in 2020? Who do you think would have made the podium on the men's side and the women's?

Here are my picks:

Women's
1. Daniela Ryf
2. Lucy Charles
3. Heather Jackson

Men's
1. Alister Brownlee
2. Lionel Sanders
3. Codey Beals


Went ahead and watched your analysis. IMHO, your analysis is jumbled between what actually happened this year and what hypothetically could happen at Kona. For example you highlight Cam Wurf as a strong pick but his focus on cycling. Don't you think if there was a triathlon season that maybe his focus wouldn't be cycling. Or Frodeno, if there is a triathlon season, maybe Frodeno doesn't crash. I am curious why you focus on Jan Frodeno's injury as why not to pick him, yet you don't focus on some of the more public mental struggles both Lionel and Cody (it is spelled Cody btw you have it wrong in your video as well) have faced and expressed in their posts. Nor do you highlight both athletes rather disappointing races last year, albeit a mechanical for Cody. After Halvard (may be misspelling) comments in the early thread on the uber cyclists at Kona and being blinded by his Norwegianism, it gets a little frustrating to see people blinded by their heart instead of being realistic. I am assuming you have some sort of Canadian allegiance. Fwiw, in the last 15 years Canada has 1 podium, and you think they are going to pull a double?

Also fwiw, Cody went DNF (Kona), Flat (literally) (Campeche 70.3 Mexico), Flat (figuratively) (Canadian WC just a few weeks back) in last races. His latest race being quite a disappointing race where he got beat by guys he has routinely beat in recent years. I know it has to be frustrating for him. I noticed in the Ironman recap last year they highlighted just a few athletes last year as they do every year. For some reason they highlighted Cody. Cody is an awesome athlete, but given his results in the race there is no reason he should have been featured - very much out of place with tradition. Seemed more like it was good old nepotism with Ventum, the official bike course sponsor and I believe the only male pro athlete riding the bike. But what gets me, is you know Heather, Paula, etc know how this race is won. Cody isn't the type of athlete that I would predict can do well at Kona because Cody's entire race strategy is pace not race. There is nothing wrong with that. It is smart, but you are never going to win the race pacing, unless your pacing is at the front of the race. I could argue that is exactly what Frodeno did. Can you run on to the podium these days with a conservative bike ride from second / third swim pack??? I think those days are gone. Chris L had a great race last year and finished 10th I think doing his own race sort of. But Cody hasn't even done a single Kona race and you expect him to run onto the podium with the likes of Frodeno, Lange, Gomez, Brownlee and the more experienced guys like Hoffman, TO, Kienle. Just an absurd pick.

The jury is out on Lionel. I didn't really follow his race last year so I don't have much to say about it but Lionel's races are going to depend so much by what happens on the bike. You can never count out his grit and determination. There is nobody I would I love to see win Kona more than Lionel but I do wonder if Lionel is the Raelert of this generation.

Alistair (Yes it is Alistair). I think that could be a decent pick but it would violate that the winner comes from the previous 4. If there was anyone to violate that rule, Ali could be the guy given his pedigree. I could see a Gomez too. But Ali's race was pretty disappointing. Of all the guys out there, I think back to the debut and I think of Crowie finishing 2nd in his debut and then winning it the next year.

If you were to ask me for picks with momentum and how this year would have played out I would say it probably finishes the exact same as last year on the men's side. Although, I think Sebi has more momentum than TO so I might flip that around and put it Jan, Lange, Sebi for a 1, 2, 3 German sweep. I am giving Lange the benefit of the doubt that it was a fluke last year and he was sick and that he hasn't spent too much time with his eye off the ball in the sponsorship/media distraction to do the required work. Wurf has good momentum and improvement as well but it is hard to see him having the goods on the run

On the Women's side I am going to have to go with Ryf, Haug, Charles-Barclay. Ryf won Hawaii in 2018 with the jelly stings. Not sure what happened last year. I would be inclined not to bet against Ryf if it was just a fluke although admittedly I didn't really follow what happened with her race and lead-up. She is only 33.


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Last edited by: Thomas Gerlach: Oct 2, 20 20:57
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Re: Who Would Have Won Kona 2020? [oprfcc] [ In reply to ]
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I can guarantee you frodo wouldn’t have. He is injured.

Rhymenocerus wrote:
I think everyone should consult ST before they do anything.
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Re: Who Would Have Won Kona 2020? [mlegrand] [ In reply to ]
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mlegrand wrote:
Here are my picks:

Men's
1. Alister Brownlee
2. Lionel Sanders
3. Codey Beals

LOL!
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Re: Who Would Have Won Kona 2020? [ThailandUltras] [ In reply to ]
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Crap, I did not know that Frodo was in a crash. Bummer. It shows you how irrelevant triathlon pros are when we don't get to see them race. At that point, they are just another person training for fitness, but with no competition, they are the same as the first timer just going on their treadmill solo.
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Re: Who Would Have Won Kona 2020? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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devashish_paul wrote:
Crap, I did not know that Frodo was in a crash. Bummer. It shows you how irrelevant triathlon pros are when we don't get to see them race. At that point, they are just another person training for fitness, but with no competition, they are the same as the first timer just going on their treadmill solo.

Not just triathlon pros, but all professional pros, and actually likely everyone when they retire to some extent. The world goes on and you just are needed and appreciated anymore.


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Re: Who Would Have Won Kona 2020? [Thomas Gerlach] [ In reply to ]
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Thomas Gerlach wrote:
devashish_paul wrote:
Crap, I did not know that Frodo was in a crash. Bummer. It shows you how irrelevant triathlon pros are when we don't get to see them race. At that point, they are just another person training for fitness, but with no competition, they are the same as the first timer just going on their treadmill solo.

Not just triathlon pros, but all professional pros, and actually likely everyone when they retire to some extent. The world goes on and you just are needed and appreciated anymore.

Yes you are correct. With no pro Cycling this spring no one cares about Roglic or Pogacar who duelled for the TDF win. Without the platform of the race/competition, all sports pros are kind of irrelevant.....so we need some more Tei racing in 2021!!!!
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Re: Who Would Have Won Kona 2020? [mlegrand] [ In reply to ]
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If the Tour de France taught us anything, and hypothetically the Pros could have all assembled in Kona next week and raced after having had racing and in some cases training shut down for 5 - 6 months, the race results would have been very different from what ANY pundit, even the really good ones, would have put together! Expect the unexpected.

One thing I have noticed in Pro cycling - lot's of BIG breakthroughs for young riders. Might have we seen the same had the IMWC run?


Steve Fleck @stevefleck | Blog
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Re: Who Would Have Won Kona 2020? [mlegrand] [ In reply to ]
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It's hard to say because prep would've been totally different in a normal year, or if Kona hadn't been cancelled months ago. That said, if we were miraculously informed of a Kona happening in a few weeks, here's a few thoughts based on what we've seen or not seen this year:

Men:

- Lionel's cycling and run fitness is as good as it's even been- everyone talks about his swim, but he needs to improve his run there to podium/win. He ended the bike with Sebi and To, and needed to run sub 2:50 to get on the podium. We also don't know if his swim fitness is anywhere near making 2nd pack with Sebi, Cam, etc.

- Sebi is always a podium threat and had a solid race a couple weeks ago coming back from a broken collarbone. Few more weeks or prep and he has to be a podium favorite, and an overall favorite if we're assuming no Jan. His bike/run combo has really made a comeback in the last year

- I know there's mixed opinions (I'm admittedly not his biggest fan), but I'm not discounting Sam Long as a podium wildcard. We all know his horsepower on the bike, but he spanked the field in the extreme heat at Cozumel and cold at bear lake.


Women:

- Anne Haug has had a quiet offseason, but let's not forget she was injured only a couple months before Kona last year. She's very similar to Patrick Lange, but I would say comparably stronger on the bike to her competition. If she's dropping low 2:50s marathons and riding in the first chase pack, then really only Daniela and Lucy have a shot.

- LCB's bike seems to have gotten even stronger, which is essential considering how she spends the whole race off the front. The swim-bike makes her a podium lock IMO, but she'll need to run closer to 3 to win

- Laura Phillip was showing a lot of fitness in her training before she had a crash, and she won an Xterra tri if I'm not mistaken. She has a really sold bike/run combo and can definitely podium, but it'll be tough for her to be Anne Haug if they swim and ride together
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Re: Who Would Have Won Kona 2020? [mlegrand] [ In reply to ]
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Women
1. Lucy Charles Barclay
2. Sara Crowley
3. Anne Haug

D Ryf inj
J. Frodeno inj

Men
1. David MacNamee
2. Cam Wurf
3. Ben Hoffman
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Re: Who Would Have Won Kona 2020? [WhittleFit] [ In reply to ]
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WhittleFit wrote:
mlegrand wrote:
Here are my picks:

Men's
1. Alister Brownlee
2. Lionel Sanders
3. Codey Beals


LOL!

Not sure why Lionel is mentioned here. He was 2nd in 2017, but his swim time was 7 minutes off the lead pack and his run time was 13 minutes off the winners. Nothing much as changed 3 years on. His bike is still strong, but he is still way off the top guys when it comes to the swim and the run. Top 10 is all he can hope for unless there are a ton of injuries, retirements in the next few years.

Brownlee is a hard one. For such a seasoned and experienced athlete I was surprised with his capitulation in Kona. I would have thought with all his knowledge and experience and the enormous amount of support and expertise he has access to he would have raced a bit more conservatively. I know conservative and Alistair Brownlee don't go together, he races aggressively, but surely you still need to race smart in Ironman. Balls to the wall is fine in OD, Ironman is a different kettle of fish.

Getting a flat and then sprinting to catch up with the leaders seemed very ill disciplined. His HR and power would have been through the roof. You could argue he wanted to win, but it would have been more beneficial for him to hold back, maybe aim for 3rd and learn from the experience, putting him in a good spot to win the following year.

I expect him to win Kona one day, but probably the 3rd or 4th time he does it. He has shown he doesn't quite have the discipline that's needed.
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Re: Who Would Have Won Kona 2020? [smallhips] [ In reply to ]
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smallhips wrote:
Women
1. Lucy Charles Barclay
2. Sara Crowley
3. Anne Haug

D Ryf inj
J. Frodeno inj

Men
1. David MacNamee
2. Cam Wurf
3. Ben Hoffman


I wonder if Lucy's run would improve if she slowed down by just a couple minutes on the bike.
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Re: Who Would Have Won Kona 2020? [mlegrand] [ In reply to ]
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Me
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Re: Who Would Have Won Kona 2020? [mlegrand] [ In reply to ]
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my dark horses are definitely laura philip and braden currie. i like the look of them both, and they both come from a slightly different background. gives them a fresh take on things.

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Re: Who Would Have Won Kona 2020? [Fishbum] [ In reply to ]
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Fishbum wrote:
smallhips wrote:
Women
1. Lucy Charles Barclay
2. Sara Crowley
3. Anne Haug

D Ryf inj
J. Frodeno inj

Men
1. David MacNamee
2. Cam Wurf
3. Ben Hoffman



I wonder if Lucy's run would improve if she slowed down by just a couple minutes on the bike.

Yeah it's a hard one. She was being chased down on the bike by stronger runners. She needed to put some daylight between her and them before T2. So either way she would have been caught I think.
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Re: Who Would Have Won Kona 2020? [zedzded] [ In reply to ]
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zedzded wrote:
Fishbum wrote:
smallhips wrote:
Women
1. Lucy Charles Barclay
2. Sara Crowley
3. Anne Haug

D Ryf inj
J. Frodeno inj

Men
1. David MacNamee
2. Cam Wurf
3. Ben Hoffman



I wonder if Lucy's run would improve if she slowed down by just a couple minutes on the bike.

Yeah it's a hard one. She was being chased down on the bike by stronger runners. She needed to put some daylight between her and them before T2. So either way she would have been caught I think.



Not sure what her lead was coming into T2 in 19. But it has to pay dividends if she chilled just a bit. Top 3 in 21 assuming no injuries stays Ryfe, Lucy, Anne. Not that order.
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Re: Who Would Have Won Kona 2020? [M----n] [ In reply to ]
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M----n wrote:
I wish this site supported eyeroll emojis.

I know cuz I definitely would have won this year.
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Re: Who Would Have Won Kona 2020? [Fishbum] [ In reply to ]
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I don’t think she is over biking, she just needs to improve her run speed.

Let food be thy medicine...
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Re: Who Would Have Won Kona 2020? [JackStraw13] [ In reply to ]
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JackStraw13 wrote:
I don’t think she is over biking, she just needs to improve her run speed.


What's her split between the first half of the marathon vs the 2nd. What's Anne and Ryfes. I honestly haven't looked.
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Re: Who Would Have Won Kona 2020? [zedzded] [ In reply to ]
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zedzded wrote:
Yeah it's a hard one. .

That’s what she said


(I am watching office reruns)
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