2024? we don't know her yet.

ETA: I don't know her yet. Someone who pays keen attention to NCAA triathlon might

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808 > NYC > PDX > YVR
2024 Races: Taupo

There's still a couple of years to see who might pop up from USAT's CRP.

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#swimmingmatters
Laugh hard. Run fast. Be kind.
The Doctor (#12)

The other woman is probably a high school girl right now and an unknown.

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Washed up footy player turned Triathlete.

I’m on my iPhone and can’t see the poll (I can only see them 1 out of every 5 or so polls) but my darkhorse is Erika Ackerlund. Mostly because she from Montana and I’m a homer. But she’s had some some good success on the collegiate and U23 scene. She’ll be 28 in 2024 which seems to be a pretty good age for peaking in sprint/Olympic distance racing.

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Matt

I would agree that so far out, it is hard to imagine any of these women are still doing ITU. I bet half of them are into non draft by then, crushing dreams of non swimming time trialers..If I had to pick one, it would be Taylor Spivey. I believe she is still young enough to be in her early 30's in 2024, and all she really has to do is get her run about a minute faster in 10k and she will be hard to beat. She will have the tools of a Gomez if that happens, and just the pure runners that make it to T2 with her will be a threat..

Of course that is a big ask to drop a minute of a 10K, but she has done at least that much in the past couple years already, so hard to know where her top will be...

Second vote for erika here. She's been doing awesome as largely a part time triathlete, can't wait to see what happens after a few years devoted to sport

gwen went to 2 olympics. i'd think that's pretty typical. i think if you look at the really good ITU racers, there already into getting ready for their 2nd olympics if not their 3rd. the leader of the poll, right now, is taylor knibb, and she won't even be out of (undergrad) college until 2022 or so. katie is 29. burns is 28. spivey, kasper, cook all 27. gorman 22, knibb 20. gwen would be 34 in 2020, duffy 33. i think they would still dominate in 2020. ergo, of the above ladies i don't think any will graduate out of ITU by 2024 if they're still near the top. they might graduate into 70.3, part time, but i doubt they'll have the olympic bug out of their systems, except maybe katie, as 2020 would be her 2nd olympics. none of these others, i don't believe, have made a U.S. team yet.

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Dan Empfield
aka Slowman

Is the 2nd assumption that 2024 ITU includes olympic distance race?

Because if what I think ITU 2024 will be what it is now different- IE it'll be sprint race; that changes your list of athletes imo.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

well, that's a good question. i think summer cook is a beast in the sprints. and taylor knibb's cycling skills may not serve her as well in a sprint.

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Dan Empfield
aka Slowman

And going to a full time sprint distance for all ITU (which it pretty much does now but for a few championship events) will change the complexity of training, so that you very early on in your tri careers will either be able to handle the sprint anaerobic engine or you just need to go to non-draft and get that steady state training down to a science. Sprint and 70.3 training won't mix very well, but of course some will do it for a easy cash grab, but the thing will be, it'll be such different modes of racing that the ones behind you may not let you back in if you think you can do both.

ETA: Of course I dont think this is announced until after the "success" of Tokyo MTR etc. So I think it's just a matter of time but I think it's going to happen, just makes it easier on the RD/races/racing itself....especially if 50% of the races are of the nature that brings everyone together, just chop off the 30 mins of hand holding on the ride and then get down to the nit and gritty of seeing who's best 1500m times comes into play.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

I agree that most on that list will likely. E out of ITU by 2024. Knibb is the one I wonder about - depending on the course perhaps she can develop her run to the point where she can bike away and hold off chasers like Flora.

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Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team

this flew under the radar, but she was something like 109th at D1 XC champs last month. that might not sound like a big deal, but, i think there were something like 230ish in the race, and the palmares of some of those she beat were pretty impressive. she's smart. she chose running. that's the focus of her energy.

i think she has the capacity to be a flora-style cyclist, but, better than flora. i think she needs to run, while at cornell, 16:15? maybe? 16-flat? by the time she's done? she's a junior. she has 2 more track seasons in front of her. she's run 16:54 so far.

last year she was 65th in her NCAA regional meet. this fall she was 5th. her whole season was like that, from 2017 to 2018. but she didn't progress much in track from 2017 to 2018, so, i guess i think that all this progress was made between 2018 track to 2018 XC season. i'll be very interested to see if she gets close to 16-flat this track season.

if she gets to 16-flat on the track, she'd be a medal favorite i think by 2020, if it wasn't for the fact that i think it's an old retro bullshit bike course.

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Dan Empfield
aka Slowman

The timeframe of the question is funny in only that to realize that right now we are basically only 4 months closer to Tokyo 2024 than it is from London 2012 and from that list you guys wouldn't have recognized a single name on that list if 2014 (KZ would be top name since that was her 1st year in the WTS circuit and then Burns because she "surprised" the field at the sprint champs in Vegas that year but no one else would have even been on the list) would have asked "who will be the top person in 2020".....that's how far out 6 years is. That's a lifetime and yet only 1.5 olympic cycles, a long time yet not so long time in the same breath.

Weird what athlete's peak time frames are. Some can seem to go on and last forever, while others don't even live out a full olympic cycle.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Sounds like promising progress, but still room for growth. I hope she keeps it up.

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Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team

Seconding the Montana homer comment. Erika Ackerlund. (She's my gf so I better say it!)
Taylor Knibb is rock solid and is a super bright girl. I imagine if you had to bet, It'd be Taylor Knibb. (No offense to Spivey)

If you had to choose someone not on the list, it'd be Erika.