I'm just concerned my favorite races are disappearing in my town. Two duathlons and one triathlon are no longer offered.

The indoor Tris are going to become even more popular, and you will see more of them.

I hope I'm wrong, but it doesn't look good. Look at golf and tennis as examples, along with triathlon they are not appealing to younger generations. I remember waiting hours to get a court, and not even playing golf on some days as you could never get a tee time (now there is never a wait for either). Ten years ago there were often multiple choices for triathlons in my area, in July I could do one on Saturday, and one on Sunday. Looking through the race calendar, most of those are gone. I think there will still be big races around, but what we are probably looking at is fewer races, higher fees, and hopefully people not talking about triathlon in the same conversations as darts, and bowling.

Latex/p

vonschnapps wrote:

I hope I'm wrong, but it doesn't look good. Look at golf and tennis as examples, along with triathlon they are not appealing to younger generations. I remember waiting hours to get a court, and not even playing golf on some days as you could never get a tee time (now there is never a wait for either). Ten years ago there were often multiple choices for triathlons in my area, in July I could do one on Saturday, and one on Sunday. Looking through the race calendar, most of those are gone. I think there will still be big races around, but what we are probably looking at is fewer races, higher fees, and hopefully people not talking about triathlon in the same conversations as darts, and bowling.

I was always afraid to say it, but you said it first. Like Golf and Tennis. Some sports are around forever but just have a few generations of surging in popularity to fade within a few decades.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/death-watch-how-much-longer-can-golf-survive-2017-04-18


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/tennis/2018/08/27/special-report-strange-slow-death-american-mens-tennis-us/


I really hope that doesn't happen. If it does, maybe it will make it more special? Who knows.

Is Crossfit still big in the US? Seems to have died in the arse in Australia.

Yes, can't escape crossfit gyms still it seems where I live in Southern California.

Uber Man

http://www.uberman1.com/

---

Washed up footy player turned Triathlete.

I don't think there should be much mystery to triathlons modest appeal to younger athletes.
Most races are populated mostly by athletes in the 35-50 age range. That alone will likely put off most 15-25 year olds.
On top of that there's the focus, in some spheres (ST especially) on equipment and data. This is not what most younger athletes are looking for in their sport. I'd expect the vast majority of younger athletes to be unable to compete in terms of equipment since they will typically have considerably smaller budgets. I'd imagine that could be a bit off-putting, even if the reality is that their youth facilitates much bigger performance gains than fancy equipment does!
We've turned the sport into something that can be perceived as rather expensive, exclusive and full of it's own importance. There are consequences.

It would be easy to say we're past 'peak' but who knows what take-up in developing markets such as China will be like. Anyone who's been in multisports for 20+ years will remember when there were way fewer events, and most of those were short-course variations and independent. In some respects that's flipped on it's head and we now have big brand 70.3 & Ironman dominating, in the 'bucket list' culture. I would actually like to see it go back the other way to grass-roots non-standardised events; they are more of an 'adventure'.

As far as demographics, even in the early 90s, there were very few people in the 18-25 age bracket doing Tri; endurance sport generally appeals to older people and in particular those having a mid-life thing!

---

29 years and counting

This. Plus it's demands makes it difficult to get/keep a girl, a guy or have a happy spouse. What's not to like? lol

---

Indoor Triathlete - I thought I was right, until I realized I was wrong.

I’ll second this and add to it. I’ve been in the sport 11 years and lots of local races have vanished. But big races, especially M-Dot 70.3 races seem to be multiplying and taking over at an alarming pace. Triathlon does need to get back to its routs but I’m seeing a lot of one and dones in newbies.

Also on gear, like it not not China and value/knockoff/reversed engineered cloths and equipment have a big future in the sport. Not everyone can afford or justify the expense of some of the higher end gear. Look for a lot more Dhb, SLS, COROs, and Polar VM out there. Or reasonable facsimiles. Garmin Et all are pricing themselves out of the game sometimes.

---

I still lapped everyone on the couch!

Further to what I already wrote, If IM is as dominant in USA as it comes across here, and if as a result shorter races are marginalised, that seems very, very bad for triathlon. IM in particular, seems to suck the fun out of triathlon and make it a big deal surrounded by commercialism. I'm in a tri club of over a hundred people, of whom probably 20 have an interest in doing IM races now or at some point in the near future. Most are more interested in sprint and olympic distance, and other non-tri events are also popular. Open water swims seem particularly popular at the moment. A sport can be serious and specific at the upper competitive levels but if you want it to last, it should have an appealing, fun, diverse base, and that base should not feel contempt from the upper ranks.

If you want to do your own bit to support triathlon for the future, a good approach is probably:

1. Do some non-IM events each year, including some shorter races
2. Don't take yourself too seriously, especially when talking about triathlon with novices or the uninitiated
3. Don't tell anyone or imply that an IM or KQ should be their ultimate goal
4. Enjoy yourself

Well, running is in decline, road racing is in decline, and masters swimming is in decline. Don't let their numbers fool you - much of USMS keeping their membership count near flatline is a large base of triathletes that carry USMS cards. I can't think that this bodes well for triathlon going forward either. I'd like to say the sports will all make a resurgence but it's not going to happen. As others have pointed out, your "country club" sports golf and tennis are in decline, of which I would consider triathlon, at least economically. Adult participation sports are simply in decline, and it's due IMO to technology. Bowling leagues are down. Softball leagues are down, beer league, church league, slow pitch, and fast pitch all disappearing. Rec basketball is contracting everywhere. In the 80s if you wanted to do something in the evenings you were doing one of these activities. Now there are too many distractions options to take up your evening time. So I think it's endemic to society and not specific to triathlon.

I guess in light of this, I think the future is going to be fewer events, more "name" events, higher entry fees, and therefor lower "official" numbers nationwide. My hope would be that grass roots and/or unsanctioned/club tri events keep people in the sport in their local areas. People mention indoor tri, which is great for fitness, but it's not "triathlon". It's an indoor workout in which people have convinced themselves they need to compete against each other. Just like going to the golf simulator (because it takes an hour to "play" 18 holes with 3 buddies) is not golf. And zwift is not road racing. They are fun activities - video games if you will.

We're turning into a myopic wasteland athletically. When is the last time you went past a large city park with basketball courts, softball and baseball fields, tennis courts, playgrounds, etc. and saw the thing hopping with activity? It's sad. We have 100 million more people in America than we did in 1980, but in 1980 those parks were packed with kids, parents, teens, and adults.

Sorry - that turned into a societal rant, all to say triathlon will be following suit.

Some truth to this. But with the increasing onset of obesity in the world, physical activity becomes more and more important. That combined with triathlon being very well in line with the self-realisation trend (though that is dying a bit at the moment), i think the future is not too bad.

Is running really in decline, my perspective is that it is BOOMING, asia and china are running CRAZY at the moment. When i run sat. morning everywhere is packed with runners, and i run by the parks and they do play softball etc :)

On that note, not sure where I heard it but I heard that endurance sports peak when the economy is down. For that matter my first race was in the middle of the recession when gas prices were $4 a gallon. Over 500 athletes in a local race. Now we’re lucky if we have 100 so maybe there’s something to that. When people
have less money the use the opportunity to train and race rather than take trips to Fenway park or camping at the Cape.

---

I still lapped everyone on the couch!

Equipment:

I don't know why people on this forum avoid to adopt (for training wheel set), but solid rubber tires are the way to go, especially with a company like Tannus making a tire mimicking an air tire. So no more DNF due to flats.

Sport:

Can we get vasa on Zwift... From there virtual tri's will be a thing. Perhaps spin cycling studios can be turned into a gaming center to do triathlon.

Been looking at Tannus tires. How are they performance wise? It seems interesting.

---

I still lapped everyone on the couch!

Tri will continue dying as long as IM is the only distance anyone cares about and is the main focus of the biggest name in triathlon (M-Dot).

Focus from promoters needs to be on the shorter distance races (sprint and oly), the ones that people can: actually spectate, easily train for, not spend a week vacation to race, and that are tolerable on TV. IM is a great bucket list event but it's simply that, a bucket list event with a lot of one and done 'ers. The well is drying up fast.

Page 18: http://www.triclubsandiego.org/...inews-november-2018/

Wish dcrainmaker would review but all he cares about is powermeters

I'll repeat part of what's been said already. Yes, triathlon is in decline. But I don't think it's a cost issue. It's a demographic issue. Endurance sports (for Boomers) have been a middle-age and older thing. It started as how we kept our weight down and looking good. Now, the Boomers are falling prey to bad knees and death. Everything the Boomers were heavily into is in decline. And where later generations haven't picked them up (like golf, tennis, cycling, triathlon), that decline is going to be permanent. They won't die, but they will never be back even at the levels they now enjoy. And here's an unfortunate observation . . . Millennials have been taught that, to think poorly of obesity is wrong. It's "shaming" to regard yourself or somebody else as being too heavy. So Millennials (as a group) don't mind being a few dozen pounds overweight and out of shape. Boomers (as a group) were shallow enough to care intensely about such things -- so they did triathlon.

Here's what I'm seeing in my area in both triathlon and endurance cycling. It may be different where you are . . .

• Small, local events are hurting. Participation is a fraction of what it was even 5 years ago. The numbers of races and events is a fraction of what it was 5 years ago. I think there will always be a market for the small, local race you can enter for $35 to $40. The question is . . . will people be willing to promote such an event for that lower amount of profit? I think about 15% to 20% of these small events will survive forever.
• Big events are raising their prices through the roof -- they are literally testing the boundaries of what's possible to charge. So long as they are a "bucket list" event, people will be willing to pay the price a time or two. But they are encouraging people to make them into "one and done" or "two and done" events. That's not healthy in the long term. The promoters are raking in big money now, but it can't last. It won't. I see a "crash" coming in these events, too, unless they become a lot more affordable. By 2029, I don't see more than 15% to 20% of today's big, expensive events surviving.
• It seems that an increasing number of athletes are on a "one and done" trajectory rather than athletic pursuits as a lifestyle. Part of this may be a result of the IM big-dollar, big-event syndrome. Part may be that the 70.3 and longer events exact a higher price in lifestyle than people want to keep paying from year to year. I've seen some great athletes go "cold turkey" after they finished their first or second IM. They've gone full-bore sedentary. I don't understand it, but it's real.
• It also seems that an increasing number of people are 30 to 60 day sprint triathletes. They don't train year round, but they are willing to put in the miles and laps for a month or so prior to a single small local event. They enter for $40 or $50 (plus their daily license) and they are happy to do well in their age group among other 30-day athletes.
• Finally, unless the sanctioning bodies figure out a way to reduce their license fees, I think most small local events will forego USAT / USAC / [organization name here] sanctioning. It's a matter of economics. Why pay USAT more than the promoter is grossing on an entry? Promoters are going to find their own insurance and go it alone.
  

When I was in my early 20s it was fun to pass the older guys on their fancy bikes.

---

They constantly try to escape from the darkness outside and within
Dreaming of systems so perfect that no one will need to be good T.S. Eliot

Hunting and fishing are in freefall for numbers too. For fishing it is great more fish less people. Guys around here have no trouble getting deer and the province is handing out alot of nuisance deer tags. The problem with hunting though is if numbers get too low it could get closed down

---

They constantly try to escape from the darkness outside and within
Dreaming of systems so perfect that no one will need to be good T.S. Eliot

Thats' no kidding. When I talk to my running friends, the #1 reply from the folks wanting to do a tri "I can't afford one of those bikes". The #1 reply from my swimming friends wanting to do a tri is "I can't afford one of those bikes", and the common reply from my bike friends wanting to do a tri is "I can't afford one of those bikes".

---

Athlinks / Strava