B_Doughtie wrote:
The only counter I’ll say to that...and no I’m not predicting the sport evaporates....at some point in order to trend back up, something has to change.
Price of bikes/races etc has to change or else no your not going to have boom years because there will be no incentive to do it. IE- if the young generation is going through harder “times” (less money to spend) and tri was already “down” when it was in their early adult life, triathlon won’t suddenly come into their radar when they are now 45, and settled into a career.
Because I think these older guys are showing, the people who are 50’s now have essentially grown with the sport. So what they did in their 20’s and was affordable suddenly stayed with them and tri has always been an option for them. That essentially Mark Lemmon’s Generation has been the top generation of participants almost since tri started. Maybe they put their goggles away for a period, but tri was in their DNA. Tri has always been an successsful option for them. And then those who hit 40 and did tri as a “mid life” crisis, great they can because it was so popular, you had choices to race. But if races become fewer and fewer those under 30 year olds in 10 years will have far fewer options to choose from to “trend” back up. So then when they have fewer options, they decline to give it a tri when it’s their “mid life” crisis moment.
But right now, under 30 something’s find tri boring/unrelateable and its now on a decline. That’s not a recipe for success down the road. That’s recipe for a sport for the few and fast only who are into it.
So I’m not predicting doomsday, I’m more suggesting tri is going to become even more exclusive unless something drastic causes it to change. Generation of athletes isn’t going to skip the sport and then suddenly come back to a dying sport and revive it. By then the options will be so limiting, that there won’t be ability for an upward trend.
Something will have to change for another boom, I agree. My point is that something probably will - the market will shrink until some players dissolve or radically shift, some new ones appear (maybe a revitalization of the shorter distances, and/ or gravel, or whatever), and new life is given. That's what happens when sports (or any market) booms - there's a catalyst that triggers it; it's not just random spontaneity, even if it appears so at first.
I will say you misunderstood me when you talked about the current Millennials (god I hate this generations crap and naming them) not taking it up when they're 45; you're absolutely right. The boom, likely, would be the next generation down. Not their kids, for the most part, but maybe their nieces and nephews. And they'll think that our version of it, now, looks as goofy as the '70s racers with Scott aerobars and Speedos and all that.
The point is, ladies and gentleman, that speed, for lack of a better word, is good. Speed is right, Speed works. Speed clarifies, cuts through, and captures the essence of the evolutionary spirit.