How fast are you while training?

It's tough to say, all of my "training" is done indoors. The outdoor rides I do are dragging my daughter behind me, or riding with my wife at 14-15 mph. My ftp is 310~ if that helps at all.

Your guess is as good as mine.

I'll bite. Try to maintain 20-21mph average and see if the run kills you. Go from there.

Check out bestbikesplit.com to get an idea.

Is it draft legal? Then find a pack and go for 38-40 km/h, otherwise I guess 34 km/h.

Last year I was 25 pounds lighter and had an ftp at 330 w, and did 37 no draft and 41 km/h with a small group.

Have great fun.

Check the strava top 10 for the course kom. Then check the power posted to start.

24.5mph is the kom.
23 is a top 10 strava split.

You probably won’t hit those on a road bike for at 280w at your weight.

Takes me about 300-310 on a road bike to hold 24 mph with my nose in the wind and I weigh 165.

If your FTP is 310 I'd suggest you ride near 310, the time will be what it is and you'll have maximized your bike split.

It's only 14 miles.

Bingo

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"They know f_ck-all over at Slowtwitch"
- Lionel Sanders

Are you going to swim in the bike bibs? If so, they are going to take on a lot of water. And the run will not be comfortable. Or are you planning to change? Sprint tris don't usually have change tents. And if they do, you will lose a lot of time in transition.

My suggestion is to try & pick up a pair of tri shorts if possible.

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Pink? Maybe. Maybe not. You decide.

I would go Speedo all the way.

If I can't snag a pair before Sunday should I go jammers the whole race, or bike shorts the whole time?

can you swim or run?

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This is kind of a lose-lose proposition. But, if you are going for a Clydesdale podium, then I would do the whole race in jammers.

I cannot think of many things worse to swim and run in than a pair of bib cycling shorts. Those will be a boat anchor in the water. On the other hand, Jammers will be a little uncomfortable on the bike (its only 14 miles, though), and offer no support on the run. But, they will be faster and probably net more comfortable overall.

My swim is a bit faster than the winners last year, my run is a couple of minutes behind. That said I'm trying to use the bike to make up as much time as possible.

How realistic is changing in transition? Should I just suck it up and spend $40 bucks on tri shorts?

My experience with sprints has been no good place to change. Most folks are gunning for a 30 - 60 second transition, so it is just the essentials. I have done a couple sprints that were by a lake with a shower room that was accessible nearby. But, getting in and out would probably cost you at least 5 minutes. I would just jam the jammers. If you think you will do another tri someday, then get a pair of tri shorts now.

Don't change, your transitions will suck at first anyway so don't give yourself an additional disadvantage. Get the tri shorts, they're not that expensive. If you don't have a good tight fitting tri shirt to swim in just go without. Try not to frighten the children.

Some tips:

Run from the swim exit to your bike.
No socks, put on your shoes and helmet and run your bike to the mount line.
Don't worry about the fancy run as you mount technique, play it safe and be smooth.
One water bottle is all you need.
Put your bike in an easy gear, make sure the chain is right before you rack it.
Clean your bike the night before, you both will feel faster knowing that you're prepared while others are flailing about.

I don't run but I hear it's easy - no worries.

Crush your enemies and listen to the lamentations of their women!

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"They know f_ck-all over at Slowtwitch"
- Lionel Sanders

Then ride your FTP and your speed will be whatever it will be based on course conditions.....isn’t this the entire point of a power meter?

I'm not 100% sure the ftp is accurate :( the last major test was a 22 minute climb at 349 watts

Speedo!