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What happened to Kestrel? (and other conundra from 5 yrs of Kona Bike Counts)
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I found the following bike counts from 2001, 2003, 2004, 2005. Note that Cervelo's big jump actually happened from 2001 to 2003. Since then they have been rising more modestly but steadily. Tough times for Kestrel, though. What explains their big decline? Just that other guys are getting into carbon? Cannondale, too, is down in the 50+ range but you guys all hate them, anyway. And finally, my poor softride--why are they on the outs?

2005

Cervelo 195
Trek 166
Litespeed 115
Kestrel 104
Quintana Roo 90
Cannondale 88
Giant 68
Kuota 66
Look 48
Principia 43
Softride 40
Specialized 38
Felt 35
Griffen 31
Calfee 30
Guru 25


2004

1. Trek 185
2. Cervelo 146
3. Kestrel 138
4. Litespeed 118
5. Cannondale 93
6. Quintana Roo 79
7. Giant 70
8. Principia 46
9. Softride 45
10. LOOK 44
11. Felt 35
12T. Cube 34
12T. Aegis 34
14. Specialized 29
15. Guru 26


2003

1. Trek --- 159
2. Kestrel --- 136
3. Cervelo ---131
4. Litespeed ---117
5. Cannondale --- 111
6. Quintana Roo --- 82
7. Principia --- 67
8. Softride --- 54
9. Giant --- 53
10. Look --- 41



2001

Kestrel 156 Trek 143 Cannondale 139

Litespeed 94 Quintana Roo 70 Softride 69

Cervelo 57 Principia 48 Griffen 46

Specialized 34 Giant 32 Felt 21
Last edited by: goolsbee: Oct 16, 05 7:14
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Re: What happened to Kestrel? (and other conundra from 5 yrs of Kona Bike Counts) [goolsbee] [ In reply to ]
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is there no one out there that can explain to me what happened?
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Re: What happened to Kestrel? (and other conundra from 5 yrs of Kona Bike Counts) [goolsbee] [ In reply to ]
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I am no expert here, but my opinion is that they have not really pursued the marketing angle. Most of the successful companies have put themselves on the map with a good product, but have kept themselves there with good marketing.

Cervelo, is great at this... They are involved in big team innovations, support triathlon and cycling agressively, and are good at making everyone know about it.

Kestrel is asleep at the wheel. They only sponsor 1 or may be 2 big athletes.

I am surprised that Guru has not gained more market share. I could see this company falling of the map.

Also, interesting is the amount of Calfee rides.... A high end non-aero bike in a race against the clock.
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Re: What happened to Kestrel? (and other conundra from 5 yrs of Kona Bike Counts) [goolsbee] [ In reply to ]
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Re Kestrel: I think the new Airfoil has only recently become readily available. The concept is no longer "cutting edge" but I bet it's still in the top 5% of all bikes made for ironman distance performance.

It would be my dream bike if it where 2-3% steeper, and had a shorter headtube (I want a really agressive bike, none of this P3+8cm of spacers crap).

Re Guru: I have no idea why these bikes aren't selling. Their Crono is customizable, and has more small-company appeal than Cervelo. Personally, given a choice of a custom Crono or a P3C I'd take the Crono.
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Re: What happened to Kestrel? (and other conundra from 5 yrs of Kona Bike Counts) [XFalcon] [ In reply to ]
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In Reply To:
Also, interesting is the amount of Calfee rides.... A high end non-aero bike in a race against the clock.


Have you ever ridden a Calfee? I test rode one a few years ago and I would have to say it was one of the nicest bikes I have ever been on.

As far as non-aero bikes in a race against the clock, I am amazed at all of the non-aero positions that people ride after spendin big $$$$ on their ligh/aero frames. The human body is going to disrupt the air a lot more than a round bike tube. I think it is a waste of time to get an aero bike until you have optimized your aero position. Getting your position right is cheaper than the most aero frames as well.
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Re: What happened to Kestrel? (and other conundra from 5 yrs of Kona Bike Counts) [goolsbee] [ In reply to ]
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Since I am considering a Titanflex beam bike, I am also interested in SR's going to 0, from 45 last year. Is this why SR is trying to find a buyer for their bike business?

So, no beam bikes at IMH?



Dave

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Re: What happened to Kestrel? (and other conundra from 5 yrs of Kona Bike Counts) [h2ofun] [ In reply to ]
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The pic of Lotar Leder yesterday looked like he was on a Softride and also I can not imagine Jurgen Zack riding anything else. There was definitely more than zero Softrides but it didn't make the top names on the list.
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Re: What happened to Kestrel? (and other conundra from 5 yrs of Kona Bike Counts) [h2ofun] [ In reply to ]
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Sure looks like a Softride to me.
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Re: What happened to Kestrel? (and other conundra from 5 yrs of Kona Bike Counts) [konaby2008] [ In reply to ]
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I was under the impression they counted every bike, no matter what the quantity?



Dave

Dave Campbell | Facebook | @DaveECampbell | h2ofun@h2ofun.net

Boom Nutrition code 19F4Y3 $5 off 24 pack box | Bionic Runner | PowerCranks | Velotron | Spruzzamist

Lions don't lose sleep worrying about the sheep
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Re: What happened to Kestrel? (and other conundra from 5 yrs of Kona Bike Counts) [goolsbee] [ In reply to ]
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Considering that Kuota was off the list in 2004, and 8th in 2005, I predict a huge jump for C'dale in 06.

Dave in VA
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Re: What happened to Kestrel? (and other conundra from 5 yrs of Kona Bike Counts) [h2ofun] [ In reply to ]
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I wasn't on the pier so I can't comment on how they did the counting. Dan can do that next time he checks in but based on that pic and knowing that Jurgen Zack was in the race I have a difficult time thinking that there were zero softrides in the race.
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Re: What happened to Kestrel? (and other conundra from 5 yrs of Kona Bike Counts) [h2ofun] [ In reply to ]
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Softride only lost 14 between the last three years. They were not at zero.
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Re: What happened to Kestrel? (and other conundra from 5 yrs of Kona Bike Counts) [konaby2008] [ In reply to ]
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Yes, I have ridden a Calfee very nice bike. However, I bought a Parlee instead. In MHO it is a nicer bike.

I had no intention of diss-ing round tune bikes. In fact, I have thought of going with a Parlee TT bike because I like the bike so much.

The Parlee makes my Talon SL feel like a noodle.
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Re: What happened to Kestrel? (and other conundra from 5 yrs of Kona Bike Counts) [h2ofun] [ In reply to ]
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SR was at 40. Still, more than 10% drop from last year following drops all previous years isn't a good sign. Titanflex wasn't in the top 20 but they had 4, I think.
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Re: What happened to Kestrel? (and other conundra from 5 yrs of Kona Bike Counts) [konaby2008] [ In reply to ]
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I agree but there are those who ride a nice bike, albeit in a sub-optimal aero position, who do so because it makes them feel better riding a nice bike. If you have something that is nice it makes you more motivated to train and race. I have a 6' 6" tall, 255 pound friend (used to be 300+ pounds) who rides a Litespeed Saber. Nice bike for a big guy. His set-up is not optimal and he probably doesn't need a tri specific bike but since he purchased it, he has been much more motivated to train and race than when he was riding his round tubed non-aero steel road bike. He's not going to win any races but riding the Saber sure makes him feel good. It's not always about winning. He's a former college offensive lineman who recognized he was a heart attack waiting to happen at 300 + pounds so he took matters into his own hands and took responsibilty and is now much healthier with more weight to lose. I definitely think his Litespeed Saber has had a positive impact on his life much more than his boring round tubed Marin road bike with clip-on aerobars. So in his case, getting a more aero bike was not a waste of time or money.



Team Endurance Nation
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Re: What happened to Kestrel? (and other conundra from 5 yrs of Kona Bike Counts) [goolsbee] [ In reply to ]
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I think it simply has to do with fashion. Right now Cervelo is the big flavor of the week(s) and in a few years it will be some other company that has done a good job at sponsoring athletes, marketing the bikes, and selling an image. Is a Cervelo really that much more technologically "advanced" than say a five year old Softride, Kestrel, Lightspeed, or Trek? I don't really think so. But then again is a P3 -not to mention the carbon version- really a $1000+ "better" than a P2K. Again, they look cool and they are new. The bike industry, like any other industry, places a great deal of hype surrounding their bikes - it gets people to buy new bikes. IMHO, there is really no truly significant changes in bikes in the last 10 years - if not much longer! Sure there are changes but it's not like they have re-invented the wheel, or even UCI legal aerodynamic wheel/frame - at least non having time benefits that are really that significant to the average age grouper. Even in the pro Kona field times haven't really gotten significantly faster with all this "new" technology. While I love buying new gear, I have to be honest that it really isn't going to make me faster but I am getting it probably more because its super cool looking.
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