How is anyone supposed to meaningfully answer that question without a crystal ball?

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Strava

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Eric Reid AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio
Aerodynamic Retul Bike Fitting

“You are experiencing the criminal coverup of a foreign backed fascist hostile takeover of a mafia shakedown of an authoritarian religious slow motion coup. Persuade people to vote for Democracy.”

Same way we answered back in January and February about 2020?

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Eric Reid AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio
Aerodynamic Retul Bike Fitting

“You are experiencing the criminal coverup of a foreign backed fascist hostile takeover of a mafia shakedown of an authoritarian religious slow motion coup. Persuade people to vote for Democracy.”

It's all about vaccine distribution... How quickly could we complete the testing, scale up production... and who get access to it (we literally need 3-5 billions dose of that thing to fix the problem)

Things may get better locally for a certain period of time, but no one will be able to make long term plans until 50-70% of the population is vaccinated.

If we are really lucky, some distribution could start in Q4 2020...

That's all assuming vaccine testing and production goes as planned. Most vaccines fail to get to market and we're currently pretending like a vaccine is a sure thing by the end of the year.

Yesterday I was thinking about selling my TT bike for a roadie. Today that idea is more enticing than it was before

Finally the are asking the right question.....and a follow on to that is will there be any race production companies left in 2021??

If Biden wins things will be rosey. If Trump wins, OMG, we all gonna die. That's my prediction.

Could IM fold? Or to big to fail

"Too big to fail" = systemic consequence if it fail, thus government regulate and take over in case of failure (ie: bank, utility, cities, etc)

IM doesn't qualify as "too big to fail"


IMO there are 2 things that will decide if a business make it thru this... do they have enough financial flexibility to wait a year or two (low debts), will they be able to attack client back (new habits, travel restrictions).


IM, the brand, is likely to survive... but i'm not sure if all the races will.
Small local organizers that were struggling before the crisis are unlikely to survive.

Probably the same thing if every business in the entertainment industry.

Geeeeeeeeeez, Are we already starting threads about the odds of 2021 races happening?

We really don’t need a vaccine just a treatment that actually works. If it’s a two day hospital stay for people who get it and need to go then it becomes a non-issue too.

2020 is ok. Less swimming, more biking. Much more functional mobility and warmup/post-workout routines not having to commute 2h+ per day. Exercises became more thoughtful, I don't think about breakfast/train schedule/dinner anymore.
2021 will probably be better. More balanced s/b/r volume. I'll try to push for more working from home days, even though management still thinks we should 'collaborate' for 'serendipity' .

Races? Well, it's one other thing to overcome or to understand how to live with/without. Together with aging, work, family, etc.

A vaccine isn't a sure thing...period...regardless of by end of what year...

I'd be willing to bet 2021 is going to look a lot more like 2020 than we all want to hear...

Im not a doctor... but i will take the antibody and non of the discomfort of been sick, over some snake oil...

Yep, this. No vaccine yet, I don't see anything changing much for 2021.

unfortunately that is the way i am thinking as well...

Huh?

No one is debating a vaccine is better. A treatment would allow healthy people to get back to doing everything normal and then if you have risk factors you need to still social distance, but if you got it you would most likely be fine.

But to me “most likely be fine” just isn’t good enough. This isn’t like the flu where if you get it you’ll be fine 99.9% of the time. The fact that there are so many people who are young and healthy getting it and having terrible issues with it makes it so scary to me. It’s not just old people or high risk people who have issues. They might have a higher chance but there are people on this forum who are active and healthy who were bed ridden or in the hospital for weeks and months.

I think we know there are plenty of people who will roll the dice and hope they’re one of the lucky ones to have no symptoms but there are also plenty who wouldn’t want to to risk that small chance of dying or having severe issues from the virus.

Now if they found some magic treatment that meant that no one needed a ventilator or and ICI bed if they got it would be a lot different. And I don’t know if that’s even close to happening either.

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Nothing is 100 percent guaranteed. There are plenty of diseases that are more deadly, just not contagious so it doesn’t carry the same problems. If the treatment is good it is going it change the whole thing. There are probably plenty of people that won’t risk it, but if the odds of you or your family dying from it move down to the odds of you dying in a car accident are you still going to say no I’m gonna hole up? For some people that may be the case but it won’t be for a majority

Even a vaccine doesn’t guarantee you won’t get sick from it if you were to get it. If you don’t get a large enough immune response from the vaccine you’re still going to get sick.

Ok first off that car accident comparison is just dumb. Like very dumb. I would consider this virus more would you bang a prostitute with no condom. The chances of getting something deadly is probably low but doubt you’d risk it because it’s a risk you don’t have to take.

But you’re right everything will change if they can figure out how to treat it for everyone. Not just some because I still won’t put other people at risk for my hobby. I love racing but the risk or infecting myself or people around me isn’t worth it.

But again not everyone will not race but for me it won’t be worth it because I can live without racing but I couldn’t live with myself if I got the virus then gave it to someone who died or was severely impacted by my dumb decision.

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I think life could return to somewhat normal including racing tris without a vaccine by 2021, but I fear it won't.

Their are too many countries still making a mess of this and unfortunately the US is the worst example of wasting most of the good that came from the lock down due to a reckless leadership. Until the president of the US decides to lead by example, the US will remain a total mess as there are too many making this a political issue and will do what he says (or doesn't say).


Many (most) other countries have managed to get the virus down to manageable levels just tells and the US is now at its worst since the crisis started ? This tell me its not going to be solved anytime soon in the US which frankly from an IM standpoint will drive a lot of the racing decisions in particular when it comes to Kona.

I do fear until we have a vaccine (and even with one) its going to take time given the irresponsible ways many have acted.

Can the virus be contained without a vaccine? Perhaps to a degree where things like doing an ironman would be possible using the obvious measures many have spoke about.

Sadly, my confidence in the leader(s) of the free world has diminished greatly. And to be clear, I've put the US on a pedestal for a long time being a canadian I'm smart enough to know we very much need US leadership which most of my life has been there during crisis - I'm not seeing it now.

For those who will respond calling me some sort of liberal/US hater. I'm more conservative than liberal and would have likely voted for more Republicans historically than Democrats if I was a US citizen. This is not about politics. Its just plain and simple bad leadership which I hope for the world changes later this year. It might actually see us race an Ironman sooner if that happens !

For the overwhelming majority it’s a 0 day hospital stay if you get it 😂

If you’re not comfortable racing with covid “going around” then you will not race in 2021.