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Vuelta Week 3 - ITT-hills-one mountain stage-Flats- Primoz 50/50?
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Ok Primoz survived Angliru, Carapaz almost hung onto the red jersey solo, and now we go into the final stages. ITT on Tuesday after the rest day, 30ish km of flats ending with a 2km 250m climb, three hilly stages , a mountain stage on Saturday and flats into Madrid on Sunday. The first two hilly stages after the ITT are over 200km.

4 riders spread 35 seconds apart, but Roglic beat Carapaz and Carthy by ~5 min in the TdF Planche de Belle Filles ITT. In 5th in the Vuelta going intot he ITT is Mas who is 1:58 down, but he only got beaten by Roglic at the TdF ITT by less than minute.

However the ITT shakes out, its going to be tough for the GC to change substantially afterwards. I wish they kept Angliru for after the ITT (in 2017 it was penultimate day). Maybe Valverde will team up with Froome to do an ambush on Roglic (since Froome knows how that works from 2016 ambush to Formigal

Saturday's stage looks like this. I don't think this is enough to close anything more than 30-40 seconds.




This looks like Roglic's race to lose, but if he has a day off, it can go to any of Carapaz, Carthy, Martin and Mas.
Last edited by: devashish_paul: Nov 2, 20 18:26
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Re: Vuelta Week 3 - ITT-hills-one mountain stage-Flats- Primoz 50/50? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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If Roglic gets more than a minute lead after today (highly likely), I can't see him losing that lead.

Saying that, the climb at the end of the TT sounds absolutely epic. 30% grade in a couple of places and slippery.
Should be entertaining!
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Re: Vuelta Week 3 - ITT-hills-one mountain stage-Flats- Primoz 50/50? [The Red Baron] [ In reply to ]
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The Red Baron wrote:
If Roglic gets more than a minute lead after today (highly likely), I can't see him losing that lead.

Saying that, the climb at the end of the TT sounds absolutely epic. 30% grade in a couple of places and slippery.
Should be entertaining!

What is the weather for today's TT? I did not realize there is a section at 30%. I thought it as a steady 12.5% for 2 km (that's not nothing as it would climb half of Planche des Belles Filles in 2km) but Primoz with climbs at the end of TT's does not have good memories, but he beat most of the contenders in the TdF ITT by 5 min other than Mas who was less than 2 min behind.
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Re: Vuelta Week 3 - ITT-hills-one mountain stage-Flats- Primoz 50/50? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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I'd love to see Dan Martin doing well, but the TT is not his forte. He could lose a lot of time, but hopefully not.
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Re: Vuelta Week 3 - ITT-hills-one mountain stage-Flats- Primoz 50/50? [Ai_1] [ In reply to ]
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That last 250m vertical is favourable to Dan, but its also favourable to Carthy and Carpaz. The first 30km are unfavourable to Dan, Carapaz and Carthy, favourable to Primoz and Mas is in the middle.

This is shaping up to be very interesting for 2nd to 5th. 1st place Primoz has a >50% lock on barring disaster or jour sans
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Re: Vuelta Week 3 - ITT-hills-one mountain stage-Flats- Primoz 50/50? [Ai_1] [ In reply to ]
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Froome is on the road. In around 45 minutes we will know if he beats Wurf (which is what matters on ST)
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Re: Vuelta Week 3 - ITT-hills-one mountain stage-Flats- Primoz 50/50? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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devashish_paul wrote:
That last 250m vertical is favourable to Dan, but its also favourable to Carthy and Carpaz. The first 30km are unfavourable to Dan, Carapaz and Carthy, favourable to Primoz and Mas is in the middle.

This is shaping up to be very interesting for 2nd to 5th. 1st place Primoz has a >50% lock on barring disaster or jour sans

In general I agree that the steep climb should suit Dan, but I think psychologically he's just not a TT guy, he likes riders around him to ride against, not controlled solo efforts.
I reckon all the other main GC contenders will likely gain time on him, but I hope I'm wrong.
Last edited by: Ai_1: Nov 3, 20 6:09
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Re: Vuelta Week 3 - ITT-hills-one mountain stage-Flats- Primoz 50/50? [Ai_1] [ In reply to ]
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Ai_1 wrote:
devashish_paul wrote:
That last 250m vertical is favourable to Dan, but its also favourable to Carthy and Carpaz. The first 30km are unfavourable to Dan, Carapaz and Carthy, favourable to Primoz and Mas is in the middle.

This is shaping up to be very interesting for 2nd to 5th. 1st place Primoz has a >50% lock on barring disaster or jour sans

In general I agree that the steep climb should suit Dan, but I think psychologically he's just not a TT guy, he likes riders around him to ride against, not controlled solo efforts.
I reckon all the other main GC contenders will likely gain time on him, but I hope I'm wrong.

I hope you are wrong, but sadly you are likely correct.
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Re: Vuelta Week 3 - ITT-hills-one mountain stage-Flats- Primoz 50/50? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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devashish_paul wrote:
Maybe Valverde will team up with Froome to do an ambush on Roglic...


There, I fixed it.

no sponsors | no races | nothing to see here
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Re: Vuelta Week 3 - ITT-hills-one mountain stage-Flats- Primoz 50/50? [philly1x] [ In reply to ]
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haha

OK Cavagna who was in the hotseat at Planche De Belles Filles before Van Aert and then Dumoulin took the hotseat prior to Pogacar is in the lead. Here are the top times so far:

1. Remi Cavagna (Deceuninck-QuickStep - 47:37
2. Alexander Edmondson (Mitchelton-Scott) - 48:24
3. Harry Tanfield (AG2R La Mondiale) - 48:52
4. Ivo Oliveira (UAE Team Emirates) - 48:53
5. Scott Davies (Bahrain McLaren) - 49:21


Last edited by: devashish_paul: Nov 3, 20 6:43
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Re: Vuelta Week 3 - ITT-hills-one mountain stage-Flats- Primoz 50/50? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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Great summary. Very helpful as I have not had time to analyse the coming stages. Wish cyclingnews had something so informative and concise.

________
It doesn't really matter what Phil is saying, the music of his voice is the appropriate soundtrack for a bicycle race. HTupolev
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Re: Vuelta Week 3 - ITT-hills-one mountain stage-Flats- Primoz 50/50? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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I wonder how Carapaz' TT has developed since joining Ineos. Did he ever have to ride an all out TT in 2020?

(At the tour he only went for the climbers jersey and rode super easy to the climb. He still lost dearly to Pogacar though.)

I think every GC rider at Ineos/Sky can pull off a solid TT. A TT is like the pinnacle of their planning and marginal gains culture. He will lose to Roglic but I think he can limit his losses.

10k - 30:48 / half - 1:06:40
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Re: Vuelta Week 3 - ITT-hills-one mountain stage-Flats- Primoz 50/50? [ToBeasy] [ In reply to ]
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Will Barta!!

All I Wanted Was A Pepsi, Just One Pepsi

Team Zoot, Team Zoot Mid-Atlantic

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Re: Vuelta Week 3 - ITT-hills-one mountain stage-Flats- Primoz 50/50? [Billabong] [ In reply to ]
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Latest provisional from cyclingnews.com

1 William Barta (USA) CCC Team 0:46:41
2 Nelson Oliveira (Por) Movistar Team 0:46:49
3 Bruno Armirail (Fra) Groupama-FDJ 0:47:21
4 RĂ©mi Cavagna (Fra) Deceuninck-Quickstep 0:47:37
5 Jasha SĂĽtterlin (Ger) Team Sunweb 0:47:46
6 Jannik Steimle (Ger) Deceuninck-Quickstep 0:48:08
7 Thyman Arensman (Ned) Team Sunweb 0:48:09
8 Clément Champoussin (Fra) AG2R la Mondiale 0:48:24
9 Alexander Edmondson (Aus) Mitchelton-Scott 0:48:24
10 Harry Tanfield (GBr) AG2R la Mondiale 0:48:52

All the leaders on the road from the GC. I am surprised how much stronger Oliviera was over Cavagna....I thought he was blowing his load before the climb!!!
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Re: Vuelta Week 3 - ITT-hills-one mountain stage-Flats- Primoz 50/50? [Ai_1] [ In reply to ]
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Looks like Mas and Martin tied at the interim checkmark.

I see Froome finished 5 min back of Cavagna.
Last edited by: devashish_paul: Nov 3, 20 7:52
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Re: Vuelta Week 3 - ITT-hills-one mountain stage-Flats- Primoz 50/50? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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Carthy like Froomey 2011?

10k - 30:48 / half - 1:06:40
Last edited by: ToBeasy: Nov 3, 20 8:03
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Re: Vuelta Week 3 - ITT-hills-one mountain stage-Flats- Primoz 50/50? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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Dan is a minute back on Carthy at the 2nd checkpoint and a further 20seconds or so on Roglic
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Re: Vuelta Week 3 - ITT-hills-one mountain stage-Flats- Primoz 50/50? [ToBeasy] [ In reply to ]
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Cyclingnews posted a virtual VC...Carthy on fire:

10:53:49 EST
Here's the virtual GC after 12km
1 Carapaz
2 Roglic +6 seconds
3 Carthy +26 seconds
4 Martin +54 seconds
5 Mas +2:17
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Re: Vuelta Week 3 - ITT-hills-one mountain stage-Flats- Primoz 50/50? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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We may have a "RACE" for the rest of the week. Carapaz solid at 24.5km...not much flats and then all climbing

1 Roglic
2 Carapaz +9 seconds
3 Carthy +23 seconds
4 Martin + 1:25
5 Mas +2:45
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Re: Vuelta Week 3 - ITT-hills-one mountain stage-Flats- Primoz 50/50? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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Well, Dan lost time but did better than I feared. Just kinda still in touch with the podium.

Overall GC Standings
1. Roglic
2. Carapaz +0:39
3. Carthy +0:47
4. Martin +1:42
5. Mas +3:23
Last edited by: Ai_1: Nov 3, 20 8:34
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Re: Vuelta Week 3 - ITT-hills-one mountain stage-Flats- Primoz 50/50? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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Well we have a bit of a race for the rest of the week. Its not over, but its not done either. Carapaz and Carthy will need time bonuses, or a big assault on Primoz which is kinda hard to do with the the Jumbo bumblebee train

1 Primoz Roglic (Slo) Team Jumbo-Visma 49:16:16
2 Richard Carapaz (Ecu) Ineos Grenadiers 00:00:39
3 Hugh Carthy (GBr) EF Pro Cycling 00:00:47
4 Daniel Martin (Irl) Israel Start-Up Nation 00:01:42
5 Enric Mas Nicolau (Spa) Movistar Team 00:03:23
6 Wout Poels (Ned) Bahrain McLaren 00:06:15
7 Felix Grossschartner (Aut) Bora-Hansgrohe 00:07:14
8 Alejandro Valverde (Spa) Movistar Team 00:08:39
9 Aleksandr Vlasov (Rus) Astana Pro Team 00:08:48
10 David De la Cruz Melgarejo (Spa) UAE Team Emirates 00:09:23
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Re: Vuelta Week 3 - ITT-hills-one mountain stage-Flats- Primoz 50/50? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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Too bad we have to wait until next year to get this man on a P5.
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Re: Vuelta Week 3 - ITT-hills-one mountain stage-Flats- Primoz 50/50? [WHITEJM74] [ In reply to ]
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Wurf beat Froome today by a number of seconds. So the Grand Tour has been washed up rider = Kona bike record holder
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Re: Vuelta Week 3 - ITT-hills-one mountain stage-Flats- Primoz 50/50? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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They are both domestique riders for Carapaz so if anything Wurf won the "how fast can you pace the time trial challenge and save energy to support the team leader during the final week" challenge ;-)

Impressive performance by Carapas, as he finished 7th and within a minute of Roglic's time. Not too shabby for a 60 kg climber. He has definitely improved from Movistar days.

Carthy's performance was even better, within 30 seconds of Roglic. This is great for the race heading into the third week with the top three rides within a minute.
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Re: Vuelta Week 3 - ITT-hills-one mountain stage-Flats- Primoz 50/50? [Engner66] [ In reply to ]
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Imagine how much faster Wurf would have gone if he didn't run on the rest day
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