FFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFF YEEEEEEEEEAAAAAAAAAAHH. Kinda pumped for this.

I don't think I can make a prediction on every event, but a couple general ones:

-Michael Andrew makes the team, but I'm thinking maybe in 100 breast and 400 free relay
-Lochte doesn't make the team, but I think the 200IM will be the most unpredictable race on the men's side, especially if Dressel decides to race it.
-Finke gets close to WR in the 1500m
-Nathan Adrian makes the team for 400FR
-Dressel breaks at least one WR. Throws down a 200 free that is worthy of relay consideration but doesn't swim in finals (like 1:45 low).
-Grothe and Haas may not make the team, although Haas should be at least a lock for the 800FR. Grothe has to contend with Smith, Finke, Magahey, Wilimovsky, and a few others across the distance events.
-Casas makes his first team, but I'm not sure if it will be by coming second to Murphy in a backstroke or getting there in the 200IM (plus outside shot at 800FR).

The IM's in particular are stacked:
200IM: Casas, Dressel, Kalisz, Andrew, Foster, Seliskar, Lochte. If anyone gets under 1:55 they should be a lock
400IM: Litherland, Foster (x2), Finke, Kalisz. Smith can throw down a fast time too if he swims.

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Headed to Omaha next Wednesday to take in Wednesday through Saturday finals sessions and the Friday morning session.

Looking for Katie to dominate once again.

As a former Mission Viejo Nads swimmer, I’ll be cheering on Michael Brinegar and Will Gallant and all the other Nadadores. Michael is seeded fourth in the 800. He will have to have the swim of his life to make the cut.

The women’s 200 breast will be an exciting race between Annie Lazor and Lilly King.

 
Is Nathan going for 400m???? That's interesting!

400FR = 400 Free Relay =)

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I agree that is one of the fastest....but not THE fastest

Lots of talented swimmers across the Globe, Katinka Hosszu, Sarah Sjostrom, Florent Manaudou, Le Clous to name a few! :)

Got it now! thx

Still, it would be hes 4th Olympic games...is that it? Remarkable not doubt !

I heard this Ledecky woman has a decent shot to make the team again.

Sometimes this meet is faster through 16 than the Olympics themselves - at least in my mind. If you don't want to say fastest, most pressure packed to be sure. Harder to make the US team than medal in some events.

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I wrote this, you should read it:
https://www.slowtwitch.com/...n_Swimming_6700.html

I agree that is one of the fastest....but not THE fastest //

It all depends on the metric you use for fastest meet in the world. It is definitely a 3 horse race, US olympic trials, olympics, or Division 1 NCAA's. I tend to lean that NCAA's are the fastest meet, because you get most of the world's college age swimmers there. Then I would go trials, then the olympics, using depth as the determining factor. Overall top times would be the games or NCAA's, but different formats and hard to compare that way..


I'm pumped!!

50 Fr Manuel/Weitzel
100 Fr Manuel/Weitzel/Cruzan/Huske/Brown/Walsh (Ledecky prelims only to put up a time)
200 Fr LedeckySchmitt/Margalis/McLaughlin/Manuel/Cox
400 Fr Ledecky/Smith
800 Fr Ledecky/Smith
1500 Fr Ledecky/McHugh
100 Bk Smith/White
200 Bk Smith/Bacon
100 Br King/Lazor
200 Br Lazor/King
100 fl Huske/Dahlia
200 fl Flickinger/Smith
200 IM Cox/Margalis
400 IM Margalis/Mchugh

50 Fr Dressel/Held
100 Fr Dressel/Held/Apple/Pieroni/Rooney/Adrian
200 Fr Smith/Seliskar/Pieroni/Haas/Foster/Farris (Dressel prelims only - fast enough to make the individual?)
400 Fr Smith/Grothe
800 Fr Finke/Willimovsky
1500 Fr Finke/Wilimovsky
100 Bk Murphy/Grevers (old man strength FTW - he's the last of my generation, haha)
200 Bk Murphy/Katz
100 Br Andrew/Fink
200 Br Lincon/Fink
100 fl Dressel/Andrew
200 fl Urlando/Julian
200 IM damn this is hard (sentimental favorite event, duh) Kalisz/Seliskar
400 IM Kalisz/Litherland

Honestly I don't think the 400im is that good - only a couple guys sniffing sub 4:10, Kalisz really hasn't put his nose in the wind in the last couple years and it's going to take ~4:05 to make an impact in Tokyo

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I wrote this, you should read it:
https://www.slowtwitch.com/...n_Swimming_6700.html

I originally had tickets and I even had some success reselling some others at a profit prior to covid. All that got cancelled and I didn't repurchase tickets cause my daughter didn't want to take the time off work. Wished I could have went. I'm really pulling for Tom Shields to make the team again.

edit Swimswam has a pick em contest. If anyone else does it, post your scores here.

Tried to do the pick 'em, it's a google docs form that is so slow. don't have an hour to fill that out.

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She is the Edwin Moses of woman’s distance swimming. One of these days, she will lose and it will be a shocker.

Could you post a live link to the upcoming swims, I believe swimswam is covering it live and after the fact? I would just like to be able to come here to log onto the races, then see all the banter back and forth about them!! If you feel like it, maybe your original post at the top for easy access...

I put the link to the swimswam “how to watch” article in the OP.

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I wrote this, you should read it:
https://www.slowtwitch.com/...n_Swimming_6700.html

I'm not making any predictions but rather will just say that I'm rooting for Erica Brown to make team at least on the 4 x 100 free relay, and maybe in the 100 FL. She did set the American record in the 100 yd FL at the 2020 SECs. While that record has now been broken, I'm hoping she can still be in the top two. She is my "sentimental favorite" b/c she swam my club last summer when the U of TN's pool was still closed. She swam in the lane right next to me and we talked a few times, so she is the only top current swimmer I can say I kind of know personally. :)

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"Anyone can be who they want to be IF they have the HUNGER and the DRIVE."

Thanks for that link, that will make it so much easier..

For the men my hope is that Caleb is on fire and gets all the events he swims in. I would love to see Lochte and Ervin swim like their old selves and get on the team, as well as Adrian. Michael Andrew should be on that team somewhere, he would be a great guy for filling in the relays too. But only two in each(plus relays) and that is a huge ask among this super talented field. You see a guy like Dean Faris who blew up the world at one point, now just looking to make a final. But guys like him can absolutely sneak in an event that the favorites are just a wee bit off in, so gonna have to be a full shave and taper for just about everyone I would guess, even Caleb. He might be the only guy that doest get 100% rest, but it will have to be close to that to make sure he is clear. I really hope he does the 200IM and 200free, I always felt he could be the best in the world in both those events, but really never gets to show it because of all the others he has to swim..

So is he going to go for a huge haul this games? He gets every relay plus whatever events he chooses, but at what cost? No doubt he has a podium time in the 200 fly, but what a grueler for a sprinter like he is. Phelps had that one foot into distance and one in the sprints that allowed him to swim 200fly and 400IM, but I think Caleb does not have that extra 100 in distance that phelps had. Of course that is what makes him the overwhelming favorite in 50's and 100's, something Phelps was happy to just be on relay's for in the free...

I feel like if the 50 free didn’t exist Caleb would be a better swimmer. He’d do the 100/200 free/fly and dominate all 4. He’s a cool dude too. But at this meet, I won’t be surprised if he gets 2nd to held in the 100, Dressel is on short rest.

two Texas swimmers, Foster and Rooney, are in danger of being first alternate in a bunch of events.

Maddy Banic wins the 100 fly.

I won’t root against anyone, but I am not a Micheal Andrew fan. I hope Andrew and Andrew Wilson swim next to each other so when they have the names listed in the lane before the race it says “Andrew Wilson.”

I am so excited for the meet. Life feels a little normal again. I’ll watch finals with my family every night and then my son has a meet next weekend. It is going to be great.

Ledecky lost the 400 to Titmus at 2019 Pan Pacifics, her last big international meet. She was sick. Don’t expect her to lose in Tokyo, but she’s not quite in Edwin Moses territory for consecutive wins.

https://www.si.com/...mpic-try-daily-cover

After reading this article I’m kinda worried what will happen if Lochte doesn’t make the team.

Really hope Ervin makes it. He has the most interesting backstory out of all of them.

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Strava

Will be cheering for Ervin as well. Gained a ton of respect from reading his story and seeing him compete against us mere mortals at the 2019 USMS Nationals summer meet.

Ervin Is my favorite. You’ve just got a route for that guy after all he’s been through. I am also hoping Nathan Adrian swims really well. He’s had a rough couple years also, going through cancer.

I think that Michael Andrew has matured quite a bit in the last year or so and he’s swimming pretty well recently.

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clm
Nashville, TN
https://twitter.com/ironclm | http://ironclm.typepad.com

Just read the article. Very interesting. First thing I thought of is how similar it sounds to Mickey Mantle’s career. I wonder how much better both would have been if they had not drunk themselves into the ground.

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Let food be thy medicine...

Aus trials on now, Ledecky’s WR almost went down.