You absolutely underestimate both how hard it is to stay on the wheel if two of AB, JB and Gomez are hammering straight out of the water, and also how much the effort required to do that can kill a weak biker's running legs.

Besides he's never going to be front pack with those swim times. He swam a 9.30 in the 2013 u23 grand final in London. Birtwhistle who's known to be a poor swimmer swam 8.54. Birtwhistle swam 17.42 in the final in Cozumel last year - Brownlee went 16.52.

If there was a kid in the US who ran in college and could do a sub 29min 10k who had a pretty extensive swimming background when they were in school I'd say they might have a shot at emulating someone like Mola. But that only makes you competitive for the podium about 50% of the time.

About 40 guys ran under 14mins for the 5000 at some point in 2016 in the US college system. Can any of them swim? Who knows.

To be fair the 10000m time is not nearly as strong as the mile or the 5000. You could interpret that 2 ways. First, he didn't race the 10000m to set a PR. Alternatively, he is more of a shorter distance guy who doesn't move up in distance well. If I was a betting man, I would favor the former.

That being said, the question being posed that I find most interesting is this: if an athlete (from the US) is talented on the junior level in triathlon, what should this individual do when he or she turns 18 years old? Should this athlete join an international training squad right away and limp around financially while hoping to develop a sustainable triathlon career? Should this athlete take a 4 year scholarship or partial scholarship to focus on a swimming or running? Should this athlete join a college triathlon program, meager though they may be? I don't know if Tony's case will answer this question, but it will be interesting to see.

Ultimately I think he is fundamentally a different case from peers like McElroy, but he is perhaps the experimental arm if Kevin McDowell is the control.

It's interesting because here's what we recently have seen within the US pipeline:

-1 elite junior went the "triathlon in college" and made Olympic team- kanute

-US women really are all "collegiate single sport" who can transition fairly well.

-4 top juniors who have scored top 3 at junior worlds and or triathlon junior Olympic race in past 3 years all have taken single sport scholarships none in triathlon (Jenks, Knibb, Gorman, Hindman). ETA: Knibb is at Ivy League so not on *scholarship* athletically atleast.

Men have almost no tri scholarship options and women have 2 D1 programs currently.

-this is a sport that has what 10 people making $100k a year from winnings (not counting federation funding/sponsor support).

-the key issue is this....I don't know how many of these top juniors go into D1 programs with idea of tri as cross training learn that the single sport demands on them are just too much that they stop cross training with triathlon. This happened with TS and is happening with a few others. Of course some are actually able to cross train, but most others I'm seeing are only able to do it during summer.

---

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

My daughter has been in triathlon since she was 10. She follows both ITU and long course pros like I followed the Miami Dolphins and Dan Marino when I was her age. This year she will race in her last year as a Youth Elite at age 15. If you ask her, she identifies herself as a triathlete, despite being on a year round swim team and running XC for her high school. If you ask her what she wants to do post high school she will tell you turn pro, race ITU and take a shot at the Olympics or run for Oregon! She knows how fast the ITU swim is and at this point in her athletic career does not want to give that up post high school. The POINT is, she does NOT say do triathlon at college X. From a parents perspective I realize that a 15 year old girl's priorities and bodies change very quickly but we support her current goals.

The whole women's triathlon scene in college is in its young years, but if you take the top college girls who are doing triathlon and raced them in a Junior Elite race, they would be destroyed by the Junior Elite girls who are still in high school. The current crop of pointy end talent in the Junior Elite ranks have come through the USAT's Youth Elite system and have many years of triathlon experience. If the NCAA wants to get serious about providing bridge for U23 talent post Junior Elite Racing they need to show these girls that they will continue their progression in triathlon, in addition to getting a free education. There are not any widespread college options that a girl who is leaving the ranks of the Junior Elite racing has other than single sport. The argument to this is that there are only a handful of girls that have the desire and athletic talent to make a career in triathlon and maybe colleges do not need to target them, but it would be great to see all of the top Junior Elite girls continue to race eachother post high school in college.

Tony got his elite card this weekend, and pulled out of today's race as I assume he declared the card of yesturdays podium performance. He's being coached by Greg mueller.

Clermont put in new rule this year that because of back to back races, Saturday's elite card qualifiers *could* declare their elite status and thus would roll down results in Sunday's races. They also could wait/decline immediate elite status and thus if top 3 American, non pro would take up an elite slot. Very good move to try and allow up to 6 cards on the table per gender.

US races he can enter in coming weeks (along with any international itu races)

Sarasota CC next weekend
richmond CC first of may

---

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

From my understanding, to swim front pack at a WTS race you need to complete this set:
3x5x100y on 1:15 avg 53-56. 30 seconds of rest between rounds.

---

Inside The Big Ring: Podcast & Coaching

I think he swam today, he did have a swim split and t1 time. The swim was very rough, two girls were pulled out unconscious. As for Tony's run he did get smashed by a true triathlete from Stanford on the run, so that's an interesting development.

As for the 3x5x100yards in 53-56 on 1:15, more like on 1:05.

Smashed? 20 second difference is hardly being smashed. What do you mean a "true" triathlete? Are you saying Tony isn't a true triathlete.

and for the 3x5x100... it is not on a 1:05.

---

Inside The Big Ring: Podcast & Coaching

I agree that 20 seconds isn't getting smashed.

Most readers would interpret that "true triathlete" statement as referring to someone that has consistently trained in all three disciplines, as opposed to Tony who has been basically all run-focus as a D1 runner at Michigan for the past four years. No need to read more into it than that.

I think it is too early to make any judgement's about Tony's potential, especially on the run. He obviously has catching up to do on the swim and bike, and we all know how much swim and bike fitness helps you achieve your potential on the run.

BTW, I posted your 3x5 set on Facebook and it generated some great discussion. As a fan of the sport I appreciate when knowledgeable folks like you chime in.

---

Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team

For what it's worth in regards to swim times for the front pack of ITU races, the USA Triathlon swim tests for collegiate swimmers looking to enter the Collegiate Recruitment Program are as follows, in yards times...

1x100 from a push on :52
1:00 rest
1x500 from a push on 5:05
---------------------------------------
3x (8x100 on 1:10, :30 rest)
Males need to average :58 on these.

I'd say that could put you towards the front of an ITU WTS swim for sure if you're able to complete that.

Just for reference, if anyone's curious about swim times. Last year in WTS Olympic Distance races, here's the average for the top 10 swim times in the field that day. (W) represents wetsuit swim.

Cozumel - 16:55.60
Stockholm (W) - 17:37.50
Leeds (W) - 17:06.80
Yokohama - 16:13
Gold Coast - 16:15.30
Abu Dhabi - 17:45.90

A 16:59 (avg.) 1500 meter swim works out to 1:02 / 100 yds. So that test 3x (8x100 on 1:10, :30 rest) holding :58 is, in my opinion, a great measuring stick for a top-10 swim in the ITU today.

#1 a true triathlete meant "not a d1 runner"., it was in no way about Tony. He showed up really well for being out of triathlon for four years. 25 seconds in actual distance was smashed, in a flat itu race 25 seconds is an eternity, just as with an elite 5k race. I was there, the Stanford kid out ran him easily and the came out of t2 together. I would guess that the intention was to finish top 3 and go from there so maybe he just cruised but it was not close at all.

As for crp requirements, etc, what a front pack itu swim requires, I know what I know and arguing here makes not one bit of difference. Quite frankly if you coach an American itu racer, by all means shoot for :58 on 1:15.

I don't think we can fairly read much into his performance this weekend other then checking off the box he needed to check off. Taking 3ish years away from swim/bike training is going to cause the run to suffer, no matter how *great* a runner you are, itu running is just that specific. So come back in 18 months and then see where he stands, that's a much better viewpoint to take.

---

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Austin Hindman actually was still in HS when you posted this and just competed this past weekend here in MO at the State Track meet and had a pretty impressive weekend with gold in 4 events, 800, 1,600, 3,200, and 4x800. In the 3,200, his final event, he broke Matt Tegenkamp's state record! Here is a great write up on the feat:
http://mo.milesplit.com/...-has-no-speed-limits

What I think is great about him is that while he will be running for the University of Missouri, it sounds like they will be giving him considerable flexibility which will include training with the swim team:


from - http://terrain-mag.com/...view-austin-hindman/

---

Tony
http://www.triathleteguru.com

i think one thing everyone overlooks here is that tony was an engineering major, not a cakewalk, he chose michigan primarily for its academics, and a single-sport focus is really not a single-sport focus when you're in college. it's just a different kind of "multisport", where you're a part time athlete while you're a full time student.

as with gwen, who went from 33-mid to 32-low after moving out from under her college commitments, let's see what happens to tony when, for the first time in his life, he gets to try out triathlon without having his time dominated by scholastic imperatives.

---

Dan Empfield
aka Slowman

That's great news but one of those things where we've seen it before w other top junior triathletes going single sport route. But then again I get why these kids the need to stop tri training when they are at the D1 single sport environment. But one trend I hope that continues is schools allowing for cross training. Why?

Because these juniors are the 1st generation of athletes of truly are "triathletes" more than they are swimmers or runners. Their succcess can really be detailed to the multisport structure of elite training. So I just hope the pressure (whether team/peer/coach/personal) doesn't lead to him stopping cross training after a year like previous cases....but i get the situation and environment can lead these athletes to making decision to only single sport train during college (especially when on college's dime).

---

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

It's eluded to in several places in this thread...the idea of fatigue from overall pressure. Smorg was given the flexibility to swim/bike during his commitment in Ann Arbor but found it was just too much. As Dan mentions - maybe it was because of the heavy major. Austin too is given the room to cross train but will he? Will it be just too daunting? Will the whole college experience be so much that he has to pass on swim/bike workouts to keep his grades up, to be a part of the run team the way he wants to be? Only time will tell.

Tony got 2nd in Clermont in March at the EDR and earned his elite card. April he got 4th at the ITU CC sprint in Bermuda; 50" off Eli Hemming's 5k and Eli's an example of someone who forgoes college to remain a triathlete after high school. 4th at the ITU CC in Richmond - 5k was 30" faster than Seth Rider who is another example of full time multisport after HS rather than single sport college.

This is the ongoing experiment. I want Tony to succeed and Austin and Eli and Seth and Alec Willimovsky and more. There are so many paths the juniors can take and we need larger, long term samples to get a sense of what the most probable scenarios for success.

Ian

---

Ian Murray
http://www.TriathlonTrainingSeries.com
I like the pursuit of mastery
Twitter - @TriCoachIan

So it looks like Austin is targeting the 2020 Olympics at which time he will be a junior - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rqPP5yaIYxY

Do you think school choice might make a big difference on the success of the triathlete? Trying to remain a multisport athlete while running for a team like the Oregon Ducks with a storied running program versus Mizzou that isn't a known running powerhouse?

Hopefully Austin is able to resist any pressure that might be put on him to focus more/strictly on running. I would guess that is what happened with Lukas V. and why he left Oregon. Definitely exciting to see some of the potential in these younger athletes! Makes it even more so when they are competing at the local university where I swim and train!

---

Tony
http://www.triathleteguru.com

"Hopefully Austin is able to resist any pressure that might be put on him to focus more/strictly on running."

Put a competitive athlete with good values on a team, in a program and he's gonna what to do right by them: “I definitely want to be able to compete at the top of the NCAA level,” he said. “I’m going to want to run four years in college. And I just be the best I can be, help my team win some big titles and help build the program the best I can.”


http://featured.flosports.tv/...eat-from-the-midwest


Ian

---

Ian Murray
http://www.TriathlonTrainingSeries.com
I like the pursuit of mastery
Twitter - @TriCoachIan

Not just to you Brooks but to the general of tracking this "test subject"...Tony Smoragiewicz has had 2 more races under his belt since this thread ended:
CAMTRI Ottawa - 9th (June 17th)
CAMTRI Des Moines - 2nd (today)
The quality of field was similar. Paquet, Lori & Brennan Smith (all CAN) are perhaps the best comparisons and that would suggest that Tony's swim is improving.

Ian

---

Ian Murray
http://www.TriathlonTrainingSeries.com
I like the pursuit of mastery
Twitter - @TriCoachIan

Curious: how do FOP/pro swim times compare to swimmer swim times? My 20yo college kid is doing 20x100 on the 1:10 coming in < 1:00 on each set during water polo practice. If they miss the 1:00 they have to tack on another 100. Of course, they are 6 days a week in the water....

---

Hillary Trout
San Luis Obispo, CA

Your trip is short. Make the most of it.
https://www.slogoing.net/

TS went beast mode today on first lap of bike. Solid result for him today.

---

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Those sound like pretty fast times for a water polo practice. I'd say a top pro like Potts or Frodo could do that set but even for them it would be challenging. When they were "pure swimmers", they could prob do that set routinely but they're not swimming as fast now due to spending 80%-ish of their training time on the B and R.

---

"Anyone can be who they want to be IF they have the HUNGER and the DRIVE."

From racing amateurs for his elite card back in march in Clermont EDR to now racing the big boys on WTS level at Edmonton this weekend. Fun last few months for him.

---

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Big swim test this weekend with Varga and JB in the field. If the focus on cleaning up the swim violence continues, I think that really helps Smoragiewicz. I think he could find himself in or amongst Murray and Mola. Unrelated, is he in any kind of training group at the moment?