devashish_paul wrote:
M~ wrote:
RallySavage wrote:
I was watching the finish line live and thinking how I might consider this race next year, not now.
Please say you are joking. I think you are far more likely to be shot anywhere int he US than at an IM in Puerto Rico.
I assume you won't ever be doing the Boston Marathon then.
Personally I would not be dissuaded to race there next year as I would let stats decide what I do. Chances of another shootout on race day are probably just as high here in Ottawa as they are in San Juan....it's one of those things that is covered in the Poisson distribution chapter in 1st year statistics....the arrival rate of the next event is uncorrelated with when the last one happened. The events happen on average at a certain interval, but that's just the average.....so the shooting in San Juan will happen at an average rate and have nothing to do with this shooting at the 70.3. The shootings here at home, will also happen at the same average....the key is the word average.
Here ya go from Wikipedia
http://en.wikipedia.org/...oisson_distribution: In
probability theory and
statistics, the
Poisson distribution (French pronunciation
[pwasɔ̃]; in English usually
/ˈpwɑːsɒn/), named after
French mathematician
Siméon Denis Poisson, is a
discrete probability distribution that expresses the probability of a given number of events occurring in a fixed interval of time and/or space if these events occur with a known average rate and
independently of the time since the last event.
[1] The Poisson distribution can also be used for the number of events in other specified intervals such as distance, area or volume.
People's perception of risk are usually influenced by the emotional response to the worst case. This is a natural self-perseveration mechanism, likely embedded deep in our brains. Taken to it's extreme, we all can sit on the couch and watch (safe) TV. Until some poor slob has a plane crash into the house and wipe out the family, what do we do then???
Me? I acknowledge the sadness for those suffering and honor their effort by emulating their "getting out there." Hiding isn't living - and PR may or may not be statistically safer than your back yard; but, dollars to donuts we're going to be talking decimal point differences. Cost of the event influences my going there - not the odds that a meteorite would hit me or a stray bullet.
Wishing the best to all...
I saw this on a white board in a window box at my daughters middle school...
List of what life owes you:
1. __________
2. __________
3. __________