everyone but Froome

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Eric Reid AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio
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I'm afraid you're going to be correct. Froome and Sky appear to be too strong. I don't have a problem if Froome eventually wins, but it would be great to have a race where the eventual winner isn't decided until stage 20.

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"Human existence is based upon two pillars: Compassion and knowledge. Compassion without knowledge is ineffective; Knowledge without compassion is inhuman." Victor Weisskopf.

Nibali loses 3+ minutes tomorrow and is out - that's my guess. Hoping Tejay stays within 1 minute of Froome overall.

story of day will be sky's having froomes training data hacked

live updates from festinaboy will be how as froome destroys everyone on the climb it demonstrates he's doping

This is froomes to lose - AC looks wrecked and Basso will play on his mind, TJ won by a second but it was Froome pulling man number 5 over the line..........

and then there is Tyler's record up the final climb to play for - see if Froome can beat it clean

Flat stage with a tough climb - sounds like the perfect recipe for the Sky Train... Oh well.

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ZONE3 - We Last Longer

On paper the stage has the potential to be very exciting. But, I'm afraid we're likely to get a boring stage with the GC contenders riding in an undeclared truce up the final climb with no real attacks by the front men. Instead there will be a break away of riders that don't matter with one of them taking the stage. I hope I'm wrong.

Froome and Quintana in contention for the win.

Everybody else loses significant time

I think Nibali will be the biggest casualty of today. He was not looking at his best last week and let's be honest, he's not on par with Froome, Contador or Quintana when it comes to the big climbs and this is a beast. Froome has been looking very aggressive from the outset, so it'll be interesting to see if he continues with that today.

Usually, I'd also put Contador up there with Froome and Quintana (for obvious reasons), but I think the Giro has taken it's toll on him. Froome distanced him on a shorter climb earlier this week (stage 3?) in a way that I wouldn't usually expect to see.

I think that Contador will uncharacteristically lose time today, even to Van Garderen.

I agree, the early signs didn't look great for Contador or Tinkoff-Saxo as a whole. Five of their Tour Squad also raced the Giro, (or four of the remaining 8 if you exclude Basso) which was a furious battle with Astana on nearly every stage. I think The Secret Pro's account of the race sums it up quite well, so perhaps it's not surprising they've been a little off the pace so far.

http://cyclingtips.com.au/...n-youd-just-despair/

I still think it's too early to write off someone of Contador's pedigree though. Today, tomorrow and Thursday will really sort the men from the boys and if things continue along the lines of last week Froome could have it all but wrapped up by the weekend.

here's the deal.

99% of the race will be a boring Sky train that exhausts the peleton. followed by what appears to be a head-of-state truce on the climb, though its really nobody can threaten froomie ... and he won't attack cause he isn't worried about them anyway. then Quintana will attack, as he is the furthest back. at which point froomie will reel him in while AC, Nibali, and TjV will disappear.

there, now you can save the space on your dvr for the fishing shows. :-D

I have really been enjoying Lemond on the Euro Sport feed and JAF was in prime form for this stage. Good to see Greg in (both a real and perceived) better place.

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Who Dares...Wins!

I think Froome can go either way. He has been strong in the first week, and maybe will be the same this week, but he is spending a lot of energy. Pulling on a flat stage? Leading the group up a small finishing climb? It *may* come back to hurt him. Or he could just be head and shoulders above everyone else and finishes 5+ minutes ahead. Quintana and Contador seem content just to sit in, and save themselves. Nibali just doesn't seem to have it, but I could be wrong.

I say a select group gets down to Froome/Contador, Quintana/Valverde, and Van Garderen, and I think Valverde will come out ahead of Quintana, likely attacking with Contador and takes over Movistar leadership, because that is a Valverde move.

There's no way that Valverde is beating Quintana to that Summit

Quintana is stronger than Valverde, but if Valverde attacks a select group, Quintana will be forced to wait it out. Interesting team politics.

I don't think it's so cut and dried as some think. We really don't know what climbing form they're all in right now. Sky has not dominated in the classics as before. Froome has had a spotty season so far. Contador has looked strong this year but has he recovered yet? Nibali has faltered a bit but you never know. TJ, well, he has promised before but never delivered. My money is on the little Columbian fella. I think Quintanna is gonna light it up today. If Valverde would be a team player (for once), as Jens pointed out, these two would make an awesome 1-2 punch, perhaps putting everyone else on the back foot .

I would hope that TJ learned from his rest day debacle last year and is better prepared for today. IF he has the legs to do it, I think he should just sit on Froome's wheel while everyone else attacks. Make Froome chase and close down the attacks that are surely going to come and then try to come around and nab bonus seconds. A large IF though.

Somewhat disagree. I think Quintana and Froome will both fancy a win today, Quintana because he needs to start attacking to get up the GC rankings and today is his first real chance, and Froome because he's in an aggressive mood and will want to stamp his authority on the race. So will be both a Sky and Movistar train hunting down the breakaway, then their climbing lieutenants (Porte, Kennaugh, etc) will burn some matches up the early parts of the climb and shed as many riders as possible. If Nibali or Contador really are struggling for form then they could even get dropped relatively early, especially after a rest day. At some point I think we're going to see Quintana or Froome attack, but probably not until the latter stages of the climb when they're down to a select group and nobody else has the legs to go with them. I can't see Froome letting Quintana get away and then reel him back as he did in Ventoux in 2013, I think he's perceived as too dangerous now, he'll try and mark every attack. I don't see either of them putting big time into the other, but they might both put a bit of time into their rivals and there could be some interesting cat and mouse games as the 2 of them try to figure out who's stronger, and the outcome could set the tone for the rest of the mountain stages.

Sky never dominates in the classics!

Quintana is stronger than Valverde, but if Valverde attacks a select group, Quintana will be forced to wait it out. Interesting team politics.

Just a general comment, but you most often see this, team-in-fighting these days in Spanish and Italian teams. If Valverde attacks at a time that puts Quintana on the ropes today, and in trouble, I'll not be surprised! He's done that before.

However, it's still a long way to Paris!

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Steve Fleck @stevefleck | Blog

Based upon his 2013 data from Ventoux, Froome will drop the field. But that was then.....

I'm not sure I agree. The situation with Movistar and the GC positions of Valverde and Quintana are particularly interesting. If you are Sky, and Valverde attacks, do you close him down or let him go? You would also be pulling Quintana with you and then the (arguably) best pure climber attacks.... I'm supporting Froome but I still believe Movistar are the biggest threat.

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Don't forget to unclip!

Nothing to see here..........move on.......

I'm surprised that no one else has mentioned vayer. Have you seen it? Can't speculate about the cleanliness of it but its pretty amazing