The biggest questions for me out of this Tour is what could Van Aert accomplish?

Seems like green jersey could have easily been his. Could he lose enough weight to win a grand tour (probably would need a lot more flat TT miles, and then hold on in the mountains)?

Not sure if it’s been said, but i feel like they have Sagan proofed this years race and he still had a chance. He missed out early with what seems like some bad positioning in the sprints, came back, just to have ~45 point questionably taken away from him. It seemed like in the past there were stages with 3-4 sprint points as well as hills that only Sagan could get over. This year there is only like 1 sprint point per day and they made the hills just so that even Sagan couldn’t keep up over them. An easier course for the pure sprinter to get points/harder for a more all around cyclist to get points , and losing those points did him in.

Sagan dropped a chain and only scored 4 points on stage 7 when it otherwise likely would have been 50, 40, or 30. That's a 26 - 46 point swing. Sagan lost another 53 points on the relegation stage, when also considering Bennett gained 10 by moving up a place. All told that is 79-99 point swing that Bennett simply lucked into, and without that luck he does not have the green jersey.

Nowadays for a sprinter who cannot climb to win the green jersey requires both luck and fully maximizing all points on days with no climbing, and Bennett has succeeded at both. With the likes of Van Aert and Sagan in the world, I would not count on this happening frequently.

Sagan dropped a chain and only scored 4 points on stage 7 when it otherwise likely would have been 50, 40, or 30. That's a 26 - 46 point swing. Sagan lost another 53 points on the relegation stage, when also considering Bennett gained 10 by moving up a place. All told that is 79-99 point swing that Bennett simply lucked into, and without that luck he does not have the green jersey.

Bennett got his pro contract for his ability to win in lumpy stages. Tour of Britain 2013 - 1st and 2nd in some very tricky stages with hard finishes. Made it into small groups with the likes of Wiggins, Yates etc. Then he also gets 2nd to peak Cav on the final stage. Not a climber, but it took a cat 2 climb for Bora to distance him by 20s and drop him on stage 14. Apart from flat out speed and ability to win in lumpy stages, Bennett has won several races by jumping early with 500m or so to go and holding the gap. Another weapon in his arsenal that few other sprinters have.

Sagan hasn't finished in front of Bennett in a single contested sprint in this Tour - but luck has Bennett in the Green.

Heck of a lot of fanciful speculation on the luck part. Sagan can consider himself lucky that Bennett didn't contest the intermediate sprint for the first few stages. That's a 20 point turnover he was gifted.

More luck, the two stages where Bennett had no leadout man for the last 2k he had to freelance and finished 2nd in both. Not sure what happened but a leadout to take the wind and drop him off with 200m to go could easily have made the difference between 2nd and first. More bad luck and another 20 points missed.

It's not a conspiracy. Give Bennett his due - he hasn't lucked into anything. His biggest mistake is underconfidence. Tends to second-guess himself too much.

I'm disappointed that Sam just marked Peter today. Looked like he easily had the beating of him. A couple of moves and I think he would have easily gapped Peter and had a shot at the win or 2nd place. Not sure what CCC were up to either. GVA and MT underachieved the two stages they had a chance in.

Sagan has plenty of control over his luck. Dropping a chain is tough, admittedly.

Notice that Bennett has sprinted up the middle in every sprint finish. This minimizes the risk of getting boxed in, and is safer, but also means that you can get passed on either side, and that's happened.

Sagan chose to sprint up the barriers rather than the middle for his relegation stage. Much riskier and some contact is inevitable. I wouldn't have relegated him but it's the risk you take.

You make your own luck. I find all the speculation a bit excessive.

I have no doubt that Wout would run away with green if he wanted to.

Its funny, because I was in the "anyone but Ineos" camp before this race, and found myself feeling sorry for Bernal. But maybe I am in the camp of "anyone but a super team". I just hate watching trains going at such a high pace that there are no attacks. Blame it on Lance I guess !!!!

I think WvA could actually take the Champs by attacking on the final left turn before the Tunnel under the Louvres, recovering slightly on the downhill at speed and attacking again on the uphill out of the Tunnel turn left, and TTing "left-right" by the Place de La Concorde to the finish line. Everyone will pay poker wondering who will chase him down and he has the legs to out drill the sprinter teams.

I think Roglic shows up for Dumoulin domestique duty. Remember in 2018, Roglic attacked on Aubisque (up and down), burnt his legs for a 19 second gain (really fun stage to watch) but the next day he had nothing left for the ITT. Dumoulin won that TT, Froome was just one second behind to take back third on the podium. Thomas took no risks and sealed his yellow.

If Roglic is good to go, does he know when and how many matches to burn. Will be interesting to see what happens on the Planche de Belle Filles Time Trial (this sounds like it should be like Welsley College during the Boston marathon, but I have only seen fat drunken fans on this climb, not beautiful women haha). 500m climb in 6 km, so if there was a TT to hhelp Pinot and Bardet limit losses this is a good one aside from a Ventoux or Alpe d'Huez TT. I think last time the TdF used this route in a road stage it was won by Fabio Aru who weighs nothing.

I think both Ewan's and Sagan's legs are destroyed at the moment. Can they recover in time for stage 21? I don't know but I think both have gone that little bit too deep in week 3.

Last stage will be fun, I can see Sunweb lining up 4 men to lead out Bol while sending SKA, Hirschi and Roche in solo attacks over the last 5 km. What a great tour they've had. Meanwhile Wout will wind it up with 300 M to go while being matched by the DQS train and all the other sprinters undecided who to mark. Maybe an opportunist like Coquard or Colbrelli takes it.

I think just the opposite. It seems to me that Ewan has just been saving all his matches only for the sprint finishes that suit him. If you looked at the start times for the TT today, Lotto had 4 out of the first 5 starters. So Lotto probably has the Lantern Rouge title sowed up bigly for both individual and the team title. I am guessing any day that wasn't to Ewan's liking was just another excuse to hop on the bus and cruise to the finish using as little juice as possible. Tomorrow is the unofficial sprinter world championships so I expect Ewan to be in way better shape than Bennett. That poor guy has been working hard chasing the green and he looked like death warmed over two days ago trying to hang with Sagan.

UAE on disc brakes, but it looks like the only yellow bike available came with rim brakes!

UAE's been on a mix of rim/disc the whole tour.

What's the thought? Faster to change a flat for rim? Or purely rider preference?