Stupid power #'s at the end of a TT. Is WvA smaller (for frontal area)?

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This plot shows that it was tailwind out and headwind back, but I haven't done a specific check to see whether the wind conditions changed.


Ganna and Kung started about 90 minutes before Van Aert and Pogacar. What's really amazing is that Kung and Ganna started about 2 minutes apart, and Ganna lost time to Kung. As you can see, it was mostly on the outbound leg, but a tiny bit on the return, too.

Although I didn't check the wind conditions, WVA said, "I was in the bus until 10 minutes before the start, so I didn't check the wind. It's always difficult with time trial to have the same circumstances for everyone. I always hope everyone has the same conditions, but it also plays a role, of course." (from Cyclingnews.com)

Yes pretty insane abilities for sure. I have to guess because of height and weight difference that it is partly due to CdA frontal area but really that seems like a big wattage difference between them.

There was some speculation the wind was more favorable for WvA. Ganna went off 1.5 hours earlier.

Weather conditions changed for later riders, and also Ganna said he didn’t have the legs , so wouldn’t read too much into anything else

They both have elite CdA though I suspect looking at the details yesterday that WvA has a slightly lower CdA. My understanding is that they both averaged above 500 watts for the entire TT proper. Without tunnel data it is hard to speculate, though Xavier likely could clue us in to Wout's data. Ganna also noted that he wasn't on his form yet from last year and didn't have his best day relative to current fitness. I suspect given Wout's efforts and training load over racing this last week and his training load the past 4+ weeks he wasn't fresh as a daisy either.

very good point Robert, that may be why Ganna was so OK with the loss.. ie I am not a machine quote? it certainly makes one think that with that large a difference maybe Wout had a nice tailwind that made that wattage speed difference.

Sorry to derail, but Roger Kluge go boom...

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I wrote this, you should read it:
https://www.slowtwitch.com/...n_Swimming_6700.html

these numbers have nothing to do with their physical abilities (otehr than they are insanely good numbers) I think it is probably as Robert pointed out a situation where maybe Wout had a better tail wind for that final 2.2 km stretch (this is not a discussion of the full TT)

the numbers posted are for the exact same stretch of the course, the final 2.2 km. Ganna put out 585 watts, Wout 500 and yet Wout's average speed was significantly higher..... by 0.5 kph so that is the question contrast the two and think about why?

You can often see flats, mechanicals, or crashes when you look at the data this way.

(Occasionally, you can see signs consistent with doping).

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I had not looked closely at the numbers on each axis, that is a very interesting plot Robert!... though everyone was slower out and faster back. The line is very linear, but clearly the lower part of the line is slower in both dimensions and the top faster. Does that mean that the wind was not that big a factor? if you are closer to the linear fit line through the data does that mean the slope is constant and you are affected by the same wind effect?(what I mean if if less of a head wind you are faster into it but slower as a tail wind so that should affect the offset but maybe not the slope?)

When I look at Ganna and Van Aert they are very close to the center line of the data, would this suggest that they experienced a similar effect due to wind same slope facor and similar offset (y intersept)

I am curious how you might interpret the speed offset, the slope, in this graph and the linearity of the data and what it means as you move further out from the linear fit line?

Hehe, I heard that too - guy averages 550w for >10minutes and "doesn't have the legs" XD

Outbound was tailwind, return was headwind.

Wind does vary during the day, and Ganna and Kung started about 90 minutes before Pogacar and Van Aert. In other races at other times I've sorted by start order and looked at the difference between outbound and inbound times and you can sometimes see evidence that the wind shifted; then I looked up the nearest weather station and could see that the wind shifted exactly then. That was gratifying.

But I didn't do it this time.

So, in general, you can sort of see what different pacing strategies look like if you have the wind speed and direction. The time gap between Van Aert and Kung was about 0.5 sec/km, so tiny differences in wind could account for that, or tiny differences in pacing. But, in general, a near-linear fit across the riders suggests that they were all trying something close to the same pacing strategy, but some either weren't able to execute it as well, or else the wind was slightly different than they had anticipated.

headwind on the return was apparently less when WvA went compared to Ganna and earlier starters. It was commented on by numerous riders and WvA was even asked about it during his post ride interview. He basically said in response that he wants it to be an equal playing field but he can't control the weather. So I guess there is one thing he can't do...yet!

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