There are 28 IM or 70.3 races in the USA remaining on the calendar in 2020.
14 of the 28 races are in CA, FL, TX, and AZ. The four states that have dominated the COVID news cycle the past few weeks. Folks, those races are not happening. I'm not sure what planet you live on if you think there is even an infinitesimal chance those races happen. There isn't going to be anything different from a COVID perspective in the next two to five months to allow for racing. It's just as likely to be worse than it will be better.
Then there are three races in very cautious states -- HI, NJ, and WA. Those also have zero chance of happening. HI is being ultra cautious, NJ is being very cautious and has quarantine policies in place for visitors from many states, and WA is being cautious given its early COVID problems and are now seeing numbers rise again as WA reopens.
North Carolina, Tennessee, and Georgia host five races left on the calendar. All three states have seen marked increases in cases, positivity rates, and while currently manageable, hospitalization rates. The two areas in Tennessee where the races are located (two in Chatt, one in Memphis) have been hit particularly hard lately. I cannot see anyway those races will be allowed to continue.
That leaves six races left in Utah, Idaho, Maryland (2), Wisconsin, and Iowa. Doesnâ€™t look like the officials in WI are going to allow IM Moo to happen (already canceled the 70.3). So it's safe to say that's not happening. Host cities being St. George, UT, Coeur dâ€™Alene, ID, Cambridge, MD, and Des Moines, IA. Places with small to very small populations. Are they going to risk holding mass gatherings of out of towners in their small area that might not have a COVID problem? So they can make a few bucks? Is it worth it? The county health officer in Muncie explicitly stated this was a concern in their decision to not allow Muncie 70.3 to happen:
Just not seeing how either of those five races can continue either.
I also cannot see how any races remaining for 2020 in Mexico, South America, or Central America happen. Most (all) of the countries have travel restrictions. Is that going to change in the coming months? Those races are reliant on foreign athletes. There are a few races left on the 2020 calendar in South America but almost all are in Brazil. Zero chance those races happen.
This is going to hit WTC really hard in the wallet but how hard? Will there be some racing in Europe, Asia, Aus/NZ that can soften the blow? I'm not sure how those races can continue either but I don't pay much attention to how things are going on that side of the world. Cash flow is going to be an issue. Given WTC's "no refund" policy they will likely defer just about every 2020 Western Hemisphere registration to 2021. That means very little 2021 registration money coming in. Refunds probably would make an even worse problem since at least right now theyâ€™re holding onto some cash. WTC has certainly eaten some expenses and fixed costs for canceled 2020 races but probably not a huge amount. Most races were or will be canceled well in advance of the race date. My guess is that WTC has seen very little registration revenue since Feb/March. It's likely they won't see much registration revenue again until maybe a year from now when some 2021 races finish (if they happen) and 2022 races open for registration. So a 15+ month gap in significant revenue/cash flow from registrations related to Western Hemisphere races.
That's going to leave a mark.
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