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Re: The state of Ironman racing 2020-2021 in the USA [triczyk] [ In reply to ]
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triczyk wrote:
runbrassica wrote:
I share the same concern and forecast as you; 2020 is through and (in my most optimistic opinion) first half of 2021 is over too


this - 2021 is over until June / July

That's possible. But how do you know that? Honestly asking that question.

Is it your "gut feel"... ie. "don't think things will be better/no vaccine/etc"... or do you know something concrete?
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Re: The state of Ironman racing 2020-2021 in the USA [Dan Funk] [ In reply to ]
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I recall a study done years ago (maybe kahneman and tversky) where they showed people initially show a high adversity to risk but once that is overcome the willingness to take on more risk increases rapidly. My gut tells me that even if we find ourselves in 2021 with the exact same coronavirus situation as we have today, we will have public events. People will just accept the possibility of getting the virus. Hopefully our healthcare system will remain functional.
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Re: The state of Ironman racing 2020-2021 in the USA [Dan Funk] [ In reply to ]
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OK reading the comments around no racing through 2021 just does not seem or feel right to me. It may be the case but seems like a stretch to say that now as I would rather have hope for racing next year than not.

While comparing Nascar to triathlon is probably not a good one I did get a note that the Texas race is going to allow fans "socially distanced" and wearing a mask I believe 7/19. Again tough comparison but if Nascar can do it with 10's of thousands of fans not sure why Tri's could/would not.
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Re: The state of Ironman racing 2020-2021 in the USA [monty] [ In reply to ]
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monty wrote:
That’s true. But wearing masks isn’t the difference in cases spiking or not. Let’s be serious. //

Of course it is, so stop being flippant. The virus is serious, and as every single country that has beat has shown us, is that masks are the primary weapon that everyone can use. Of course there are other mitigations, but everyone wearing a mask is #1 in combating this..

in new zealand, one of the few countries to have (touch wood) beaten covid, face masks are and have always been very rare in public.
that's not necessarily evidence either way of whether they are a good and effective step, just that your statement is incorrect.

to be honest, we largely just got lucky as our government response has not really been that well coordinated. the main thing they got right was to go into lockdown hard and fast. the population largely got behind that and with luck we found ourselves coming out the other side
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Re: The state of Ironman racing 2020-2021 in the USA [hueby416] [ In reply to ]
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Even if the fans are allowed, which is far from certain, social distancing will drastically reduce the numbers.
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Re: The state of Ironman racing 2020-2021 in the USA [pk1] [ In reply to ]
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pk1 wrote:
monty wrote:
That’s true. But wearing masks isn’t the difference in cases spiking or not. Let’s be serious. //

Of course it is, so stop being flippant. The virus is serious, and as every single country that has beat has shown us, is that masks are the primary weapon that everyone can use. Of course there are other mitigations, but everyone wearing a mask is #1 in combating this..


in new zealand, one of the few countries to have (touch wood) beaten covid, face masks are and have always been very rare in public.
that's not necessarily evidence either way of whether they are a good and effective step, just that your statement is incorrect.

to be honest, we largely just got lucky as our government response has not really been that well coordinated. the main thing they got right was to go into lockdown hard and fast. the population largely got behind that and with luck we found ourselves coming out the other side

You guys in New Zealand held IM NZ roughly 5 days before most of Canada went into lockdown. Like NZ, masks were not all over the place in Canada, but unlike NZ who is well isolated from the rest of the world, Canada is highly connected to Europe, US Eastern Seaboard, China and India with thousands of flights per day to these locations at the same time that NZ was holding an IM.

Island nations (minus UK) generally have managed to do much better on this virus once they go into lockdown. Here in Canada we've somewhat islanded ourselves now from USA and numbers having been coming down, but keeping people from moving in and out while it lagged (repatriation flights of Canadians from all over probably made things worse), after a while we're getting somewhere. But then again NY City destroyed the curve and sent it way down (not just flatten it) once they got their act together and NYC is one of the most interconnected on the planet.

Anyway, I think NZ's relative isolation has helped (more than pure luck).
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Re: The state of Ironman racing 2020-2021 in the USA [hueby416] [ In reply to ]
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hueby416 wrote:
OK reading the comments around no racing through 2021 just does not seem or feel right to me. It may be the case but seems like a stretch to say that now as I would rather have hope for racing next year than not.

While comparing Nascar to triathlon is probably not a good one I did get a note that the Texas race is going to allow fans "socially distanced" and wearing a mask I believe 7/19. Again tough comparison but if Nascar can do it with 10's of thousands of fans not sure why Tri's could/would not.

NASCAR just decided a few weeks ago that the confederate flag is a bad idea. If you want to associate them with being the leader of progressive ideals, you are certainly entitled to that notion.
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Re: The state of Ironman racing 2020-2021 in the USA [hueby416] [ In reply to ]
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hueby416 wrote:
OK reading the comments around no racing through 2021 just does not seem or feel right to me. It may be the case but seems like a stretch to say that now as I would rather have hope for racing next year than not.

While comparing Nascar to triathlon is probably not a good one I did get a note that the Texas race is going to allow fans "socially distanced" and wearing a mask I believe 7/19. Again tough comparison but if Nascar can do it with 10's of thousands of fans not sure why Tri's could/would not.


The way Texas is going I doubt there will be any fans in the stands in 10 days.

Favorite Gear: Dimond | TriRig | Desoto Sport | Hoka One One
Last edited by: The GMAN: Jul 10, 20 4:44
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Re: The state of Ironman racing 2020-2021 in the USA [triguy86] [ In reply to ]
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70 paper supporting masks: https://threader.app/.../1279144399897866248

Please show me your evidence
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Re: The state of Ironman racing 2020-2021 in the USA [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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devashish_paul wrote:
Anyway, I think NZ's relative isolation has helped (more than pure luck).

yeah, i guess i use luck to cover a variety of circumstances, most particularly our physical isolation and our low population density

IMNZ is a prime example of how we also got lucky - that sort of large international event being held as the virus took hold over the world could so easily have been the end of us - NZ is in no way prepared to handle a serious outbreak.
at about the same time we also held the World Hereford Conference which did lead to a significant covid cluster but fortunately cows don't attract large crowds and the touring pre- and post-conference seems to have been mostly within the conference group on buses so didn't spread it too much. IM competitors tend towards DIY tours after the race so could have spread it far and wide.

canada seems to have done really well given the connectedness with the US in particular
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Re: The state of Ironman racing 2020-2021 in the USA [hubcaps] [ In reply to ]
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hubcaps wrote:
70 paper supporting masks: https://threader.app/.../1279144399897866248

Please show me your evidence

If you can read a “study” for free on the internet there’s a reason. Where I live pretty much everyone wears a mask. 850 new cases yesterday. So...
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Re: The state of Ironman racing 2020-2021 in the USA [pk1] [ In reply to ]
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pk1 wrote:
devashish_paul wrote:
Anyway, I think NZ's relative isolation has helped (more than pure luck).


yeah, i guess i use luck to cover a variety of circumstances, most particularly our physical isolation and our low population density

IMNZ is a prime example of how we also got lucky - that sort of large international event being held as the virus took hold over the world could so easily have been the end of us - NZ is in no way prepared to handle a serious outbreak.
at about the same time we also held the World Hereford Conference which did lead to a significant covid cluster but fortunately cows don't attract large crowds and the touring pre- and post-conference seems to have been mostly within the conference group on buses so didn't spread it too much. IM competitors tend towards DIY tours after the race so could have spread it far and wide.

canada seems to have done really well given the connectedness with the US in particular

haha....now Canada is equally isolated to New Zealand as we have created our virtual island and even between some provinces there are virtual islands still. In any case in teh province next door where I am allowed to go, youth sports are starting to roll and the organizers of the Esprit Triathlons in Montreal (sprint, olympic, half, duathlons, corporate), is tentatively ON on Sept 12-13 AND they are putting their Irondistance back on deck. They ran this full IM for 20+ years before it was killed by IM Tremblant, but now that Tremblant is off, they are seeing if there is interest in this time for people wanting to race an IM again. I will likely go if numbers keep tapering down, but people are also acting like idiots now that summer is here.

But the moment we open up border to USA, everything will go to US numbers since so many have business and personal reasons to be in the US and from eastern Canada, many have properties in Florida.
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Re: The state of Ironman racing 2020-2021 in the USA [triguy86] [ In reply to ]
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Well where I live pretty much everyone wears a mask and we had zero new cases yesterday. And 2 the day before. But no one should go back and forth with you because time and times again you have shown that you don’t seem to care about science and only want to do things your way.

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Re: The state of Ironman racing 2020-2021 in the USA [jrielley] [ In reply to ]
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jrielley wrote:
Well where I live pretty much everyone wears a mask and we had zero new cases yesterday. And 2 the day before. But no one should go back and forth with you because time and times again you have shown that you don’t seem to care about science and only want to do things your way.

Me and my family wear masks 100% of the time. And I’m a doctor so yea I know science. Thanks!
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Re: The state of Ironman racing 2020-2021 in the USA [triguy86] [ In reply to ]
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I think that's a very dangerous generalisation. I work at an international organisation that focuses on monetary policy and financial stability matters in the financial sector. We have a large staff of PhD economists who conduct high quality, frequently peer reviewed research and its all published on the internet for free. The International Monetary Fund, a former employer of mine, is the same.




triguy86 wrote:
hubcaps wrote:
70 paper supporting masks: https://threader.app/.../1279144399897866248

Please show me your evidence


If you can read a “study” for free on the internet there’s a reason. Where I live pretty much everyone wears a mask. 850 new cases yesterday. So...
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Re: The state of Ironman racing 2020-2021 in the USA [monty] [ In reply to ]
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Quote:
everyone wearing a mask is #1 in combating this..

This is not true. However, it is a piece of the equation. Let me be clear wearing a mask IS important. It is one mitigation factor that can help decrease spread. However, there are a lot of other things that go into this. Like maintaining physical distance, testing availability, contact tracing, avoiding more risky activities. I think that we could have a portion of the economy more open than we do if we kept the most risky activities closed. I still don't believe that we cannot participate in an outdoor triathlon in some areas of the country but can still go to bars. That is absolutely against the science.

As a society we are failing. There are a lot of reasons and I definitely don't have the answers. However, I am disheartened to see so much blatant disregard for our community.

https://www.strava.com/athletes/23685202
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Re: The state of Ironman racing 2020-2021 in the USA [triguy86] [ In reply to ]
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triguy86 wrote:
If you can read a “study” for free on the internet there’s a reason.

Here’s a very recent, free article validating the use of masks from the journal Nature Medicine. So....

https://www.nature.com/...es/s41591-020-0843-2
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Re: The state of Ironman racing 2020-2021 in the USA [TriRugby] [ In reply to ]
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This is not true. However, it is a piece of the equation. //

My point was this was the #1 thing we could do personally. And I said there is a bunch of other stuff, all the things you mentioned. But if there was one thing that we each could do on our own, it is just wearing a mask. It enhances all those other mitigation things too. It is a piece of the equation as you said, just to me, the biggest piece we can each do every single day..
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Re: The state of Ironman racing 2020-2021 in the USA [triguy86] [ In reply to ]
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???

JAMA, NEJM and other have COVID articles free.
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Re: The state of Ironman racing 2020-2021 in the USA [ In reply to ]
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IM Lake Placid 70.3 cancelled for 2021 and sounds like it won't be back
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Re: The state of Ironman racing 2020-2021 in the USA [wintershade] [ In reply to ]
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wintershade wrote:
I think what we could do with more of are threads about new ways to challenge ourselves, how to best to train through this period of darkness, etc. We don't need to be reminded that 2020 sucks on so many levels. We need to be reminded that there is light at the end of the tunnel, and we need suggestions for how to get there.

2020 is shaping up to be the best year of my life, aerobically and athletically.

I think you need to reframe your thinking. Forget about lights and tunnels. You're already there... embrace it and accept it and enjoy this precious life we are living.

Eric Reid
AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio Coaching and Bike Fitting
Chapel Hill, NC
Aerodynamic Optimized Bike Fitting, Retul Pre-Purchase Bike Fitting, USAT Level 1 Triathlon Coaching, Nutrition
Ask me: Scody Optimized Speed Suits | CeramicSpeed Oversized Pulley Systems | HUUB Skinsuits and Wetsuits |
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Re: The state of Ironman racing 2020-2021 in the USA [Dan Funk] [ In reply to ]
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Dan Funk wrote:
triczyk wrote:
runbrassica wrote:
I share the same concern and forecast as you; 2020 is through and (in my most optimistic opinion) first half of 2021 is over too


this - 2021 is over until June / July


That's possible. But how do you know that? Honestly asking that question.

Is it your "gut feel"... ie. "don't think things will be better/no vaccine/etc"... or do you know something concrete?

Some people just get it.

Eric Reid
AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio Coaching and Bike Fitting
Chapel Hill, NC
Aerodynamic Optimized Bike Fitting, Retul Pre-Purchase Bike Fitting, USAT Level 1 Triathlon Coaching, Nutrition
Ask me: Scody Optimized Speed Suits | CeramicSpeed Oversized Pulley Systems | HUUB Skinsuits and Wetsuits |
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Re: The state of Ironman racing 2020-2021 in the USA [triguy86] [ In reply to ]
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triguy86 wrote:
hubcaps wrote:
70 paper supporting masks: https://threader.app/.../1279144399897866248

Please show me your evidence


If you can read a “study” for free on the internet there’s a reason. Where I live pretty much everyone wears a mask. 850 new cases yesterday. So...

think about it...

Eric Reid
AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio Coaching and Bike Fitting
Chapel Hill, NC
Aerodynamic Optimized Bike Fitting, Retul Pre-Purchase Bike Fitting, USAT Level 1 Triathlon Coaching, Nutrition
Ask me: Scody Optimized Speed Suits | CeramicSpeed Oversized Pulley Systems | HUUB Skinsuits and Wetsuits |
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Re: The state of Ironman racing 2020-2021 in the USA [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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Another race in Clermont, FL went off this morning without a hitch.

Hooker training for the Sport of Scrum-Halves [Triathlon]
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Re: The state of Ironman racing 2020-2021 in the USA [TheStroBro] [ In reply to ]
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What is your point? Yes a triathlon was run, the hitch happens a few weeks from now when some one gets sick from the tri that was run.

Or people look at the tri and say, wow it is safe lets all do what ever we want to do
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