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Re: The state of Ironman racing 2020-2021 in the USA [The GMAN] [ In reply to ]
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i don't disagree with your assessment. however...

triathlon has some built-in advantages. it's a lot smaller than a marathon. instead of 25,000 you're talking about 2,500 and that's for a big race. we have the capacity to lead on how to produce a safe event when viewed thru the lens of epidemiology. we have a mature, controllable population that would exhibit uniform behavioral discipline. we could and should be the first events back, because we could provide a model for subsequent events.

whether it's ironman or any other triathlon, i think our sport is in an ideal position to be the reopening model.

Dan Empfield
aka Slowman
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Re: The state of Ironman racing 2020-2021 in the USA [Slowman] [ In reply to ]
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Building back up to the 25,000 person marathon at some point in time, how about let's just get the 50 person tri or running race in TT format, then then the 100 person version, then 200, then 500, then 1000. All of these should be in the safe realm of possiblity depending on venue and local spread of disease and also fit under the limitations of various sizes of event gatherings for smaller business events.

When you get to 2500, now we're talking about conventions also happening and when you're talking 25,000, you're talking about pro sports in stadiums happening. For our sport, we should just wait in line until 2500 person conventions and 25,000 person pro sports can happen. In the mean time, sub 1000 should be doable in the not too distant future in many locations. Sub 200 is a nice local event.
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Re: The state of Ironman racing 2020-2021 in the USA [TheStroBro] [ In reply to ]
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I'm with Dev on this, the fact that there are people cheering on cancellations is really dumb. Every cancellation is bad for the sport.
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There's more than one perspective on a race cancellation... People are cheering, not because the event is cancelled, but because it was an intelligent decision to cancel. We know full well that running an event at this time is a worse idea than cancelling it. If the RD's don't make the intelligent decision for the common man, then they will show up and race. This is not good for the overall health of the tri community. Therefore, cancellations are the better of the evils.

I see posts elsewhere cheering on an IM bankruptcy, and even here. If IM goes Bankrupt, Challenge won't be far behind and this sport's model will crumble
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Now this, I'm with you. Any demise of a race legacy or organization is bad for sport. People's hatred for the WTC and hoping for their bankruptcy will not improve the bigger picture of triathlon.






Take a short break from ST and read my blog:
http://tri-banter.blogspot.com/
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Re: The state of Ironman racing 2020-2021 in the USA [Slowman] [ In reply to ]
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Slowman wrote:
we have a mature, controllable population that would exhibit uniform behavioral discipline.

You are an optimist!
Last edited by: Mark Lemmon: Jul 7, 20 17:23
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Re: The state of Ironman racing 2020-2021 in the USA [Mark Lemmon] [ In reply to ]
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Meanwhile the death rate continues falling and falling and falling.....
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Re: The state of Ironman racing 2020-2021 in the USA [Tri-Banter] [ In reply to ]
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Tri-Banter wrote:
I'm with Dev on this, the fact that there are people cheering on cancellations is really dumb. Every cancellation is bad for the sport.
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There's more than one perspective on a race cancellation... People are cheering, not because the event is cancelled, but because it was an intelligent decision to cancel. We know full well that running an event at this time is a worse idea than cancelling it. If the RD's don't make the intelligent decision for the common man, then they will show up and race. This is not good for the overall health of the tri community. Therefore, cancellations are the better of the evils.

I see posts elsewhere cheering on an IM bankruptcy, and even here. If IM goes Bankrupt, Challenge won't be far behind and this sport's model will crumble
---
Now this, I'm with you. Any demise of a race legacy or organization is bad for sport. People's hatred for the WTC and hoping for their bankruptcy will not improve the bigger picture of triathlon.

Depending on where you are you are correct it may be a dumb decision to cancel. If Ironman France happens in Nice in October after the tour de France happens in August and French open happen in sept and cases don't go up then maybe it's a good decision to keep ironman france on deck. If cases and hospitalizations explode then it would be prudent to not have the race. Cancelling is very situational. There is no need to cheer on cancellation that happen a long way out because things may be a lot different in a place later even though today it may look bad. As I said a little hope on all fronts whether in government business academia or sport goes a long way to keep all of us on track and in many ways behaving to ensure we can get out of this. If there is no hope on all fronts then lots of things, not just in sport fall apart.

Talking with colleagues in Germany the psychological impact of the Bundesliga starting up or with English friends about premier league starting up was quite impactful. Yes, some places opened things up the wrong way (I won't say too early because if you open up like Korea you get a different result). But for the rest of the world pretty locked down, a path to doing normal things offers a carrot to stay on track and support all the limitations in life.

So any time a biz shuts down, while we may say it's good that the bars or gyms or hair salons get shut down, its not something to cheer about. It may be the right decision for public safety but public safety happens at the expense of all kinds of people's livelihoods. We don't need to cheer livelihoods being hurt for public safety. We should accept that they are impacted where needed and support it for everyone's good. Not cheer someone not being able to operate for my old dad's safety. The cost of my dad's and other vulenerable people's safety is aspects of societal shutdown. It's just a temporary cost but not one worthy of cheering.
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Re: The state of Ironman racing 2020-2021 in the USA [Slowman] [ In reply to ]
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Agreed. I had a conversation with the RD of the Austin Marathon and the TX Tri series a couple weeks ago whilst riding the F1 track here in Austin. He spoke of the state rules on capacity for a sports event, and under those rules, he would have to have well over 40k people on his smallest race site to hit the max. He also said his biggest concern was people not signing up in enough volume to actually run the races. He felt very confident that he could run a safe race at his sites.

I firmly believe once the virus numbers come down to a more manageable level (not sure what that is, and it will surely be different for different cities and states and countries), events will happen with big safety controls. I hope races return but only if they can be held safely and seeing how the events here have been managed, I believe they can be relatively safe.



"Only those who risk going too far can possibly find out how far one can go." T.S. Elliot | Cycle2Tri.com
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Re: The state of Ironman racing 2020-2021 in the USA [TheStroBro] [ In reply to ]
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TheStroBro wrote:
Until IMFL cancels, that race has a lot of hope.

I'm with Dev on this, the fact that there are people cheering on cancellations is really dumb. Every cancellation is bad for the sport. I see posts elsewhere cheering on an IM bankruptcy, and even here. If IM goes Bankrupt, Challenge won't be far behind and this sport's model will crumble.


I really dislike gloating about the cancelled races. The OP is certainly coming across as such, although he did make 100% correct predictions back in March. No denying it.

That said, I am thinking bigger picture. Before COVID, how many people had left the sport after being priced out by WTC? How many able competitors ditched triathlon because of our obsession with the $400 70.3s and $750 140.6 and the nutty Kona pursuits? Maybe this is the perfect storm that will restore some pricing parity in this sport. Maybe this is just what we need to come out stronger than ever by giving new brands a chance? I would like to see lifestyle brands that the average person can connect with - as opposed to triathlon being essentially just WTC shortsightedly chasing growth at all costs at the expense of the future of the sport?

And frankly, with the way WTC has behaved towards its old customers (I have done 20+ wtc events, and I don't deserve the courtesy of a partial refund anytime I bloody want so?) - it frankly is the antithesis of what I see as a plain old good customer service. If they go, so be it.

Next races on the schedule: lolwut?
Last edited by: alex_korr: Jul 7, 20 19:54
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Re: The state of Ironman racing 2020-2021 in the USA [lyla] [ In reply to ]
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lyla wrote:
What is the point? Is it really a race in masks? It seems like going through the motions for the sake of “normality”. This is a pandemic, a novel virus, and there will be repercussions. It is great that the death rate is decreasing but millions are infected, millions are unemployed, the economy is on the brink, we cannot even figure out how to continue with essential institutions like schools. Racing is not a priority.

There are a lot of things that arent “a priority” but theyre still green-lighted.
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Re: The state of Ironman racing 2020-2021 in the USA [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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Dev -- Ever since I first found SLOWTWITCH 12 years ago, I have become a big fan of yours. But on COVID, maybe for the first time, I feel you have been off base on some of your posts. When I read the original post, I see only facts and opinions. Some of the way the opinions are expressed may be harsh (almost as if saying "if you don't agree with me you are an idiot") and I don't have an issue if people want to criticize that -- But, I think it is counterproductive to a good open discussion to question posters' intent or motive for expressing facts and opinions. If there is no expression of glee, I do not think we should infer glee. If there is no expression in a post of hope or best wishes for the future, I do not think we should infer the poster has none. I think it works best for folks to reply with posts with their own opinions, expressions of hope and/or ways to cope, etc. on the topic but not on the poster.

I may be saying this because I am prone to say what I am thinking without candy coating it with stuff to put the listener/reader at ease about my good intent, etc. I guess I am asking that you give people who do that the benefit of the doubt.
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Re: The state of Ironman racing 2020-2021 in the USA [Slowman] [ In reply to ]
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Slowman wrote:
i don't disagree with your assessment. however...

triathlon has some built-in advantages. it's a lot smaller than a marathon. instead of 25,000 you're talking about 2,500 and that's for a big race. we have the capacity to lead on how to produce a safe event when viewed thru the lens of epidemiology. we have a mature, controllable population that would exhibit uniform behavioral discipline. we could and should be the first events back, because we could provide a model for subsequent events.

whether it's ironman or any other triathlon, i think our sport is in an ideal position to be the reopening model.

I agree with you on this Dan. It could happen, and it should happen. That stated, the back to racing guidance from both WTC and USAT was pure garbage. Lots of words on a page with little to no real world applicability for RDs and athletes. That was a giant swing and a miss from both organizations, IMO.

Favorite Gear: Dimond | TriRig | Desoto Sport | Hoka One One
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Re: The state of Ironman racing 2020-2021 in the USA [The GMAN] [ In reply to ]
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The GMAN wrote:
That stated, the back to racing guidance from both WTC and USAT was pure garbage. Lots of words on a page with little to no real world applicability for RDs and athletes. That was a giant swing and a miss from both organizations, IMO.

What return to racing guidance should have Ironman and USAT provided? I questioned some things but certainly wouldn't describe their guidelines as garbage. Their guidance was similar to the guidance issued by ITU.
Last edited by: Mark Lemmon: Jul 8, 20 7:08
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Re: The state of Ironman racing 2020-2021 in the USA [The GMAN] [ In reply to ]
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The former FDA chairman, Scott Gottlieb, stated a few days ago, that the spread in the US is so out of control, that he estimated the true positive rate is 12 times the current daily rate. So 50,000 cases is really 600,000 daily cases. Based off the spread, he felt that Covid will be spreading far, far less by the end of the year 2020, due to the exponential growth of the majority of US citizens being exposed and/or vaccine(s) coming out end of this year, early next. If his analysis is correct, US should hopefully be back closer to normal in 2021 for most things.
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Re: The state of Ironman racing 2020-2021 in the USA [wetswimmer99] [ In reply to ]
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wetswimmer99 wrote:
The former FDA chairman, Scott Gottlieb, stated a few days ago, that the spread in the US is so out of control, that he estimated the true positive rate is 12 times the current daily rate. So 50,000 cases is really 600,000 daily cases. Based off the spread, he felt that Covid will be spreading far, far less by the end of the year 2020, due to the exponential growth of the majority of US citizens being exposed and/or vaccine(s) coming out end of this year, early next. If his analysis is correct, US should hopefully be back closer to normal in 2021 for most things.

What does do the most recent antibody study out of Spain mean for a vaccine?

Coronavirus herd immunity may be 'unachievable' after study suggests antibodies disappear after weeks in some people


Population-wide immunity to the novel coronavirus could be "unachievable" with antibodies to the virus disappearing after just a few weeks in some patients, according to a major new Spanish study.


The Spanish government teamed up with some of the country's leading epidemiologists to discover what percentage of the population had developed antibodies that could provide immunity from the coronavirus.


The study found that just 5% of those tested across the country maintained antibodies to the virus, in findings published by the medical journal The Lancet.


I know that sometimes a vaccine can produce a stronger immune response than the virus itself but on the surface, this seems to be concerning.

Janyne
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Re: The state of Ironman racing 2020-2021 in the USA [wetswimmer99] [ In reply to ]
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so 600k daily cases = about 50 days to almost everyone having been infected?

Next races on the schedule: lolwut?
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Re: The state of Ironman racing 2020-2021 in the USA [alex_korr] [ In reply to ]
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alex_korr wrote:
so 600k daily cases = about 50 days to almost everyone having been infected?


US population is 330 million. 600k * 50 days = 30,000,000 (30 million) Dr. Gottleib was projecting the spread to increase and said it would take roughly 6 months to reach much of the unshelter in place individuals.

Time will tell, but clearly the horse is out of the barn right now.

Edited days above.
Last edited by: wetswimmer99: Jul 8, 20 20:41
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Re: The state of Ironman racing 2020-2021 in the USA [Tri-Banter] [ In reply to ]
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Tri-Banter wrote:
I see posts elsewhere cheering on an IM bankruptcy, and even here. If IM goes Bankrupt, Challenge won't be far behind and this sport's model will crumble
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Now this, I'm with you. Any demise of a race legacy or organization is bad for sport. People's hatred for the WTC and hoping for their bankruptcy will not improve the bigger picture of triathlon.

If Ironman goes bankrupt equity holders get wiped out. The brand and Kona mystic still exist. Yes, schedules will be disrupted and races will will change. IM can renegotiate unfavorable debt and come out of this with a better customer product. Bankruptcy isn’t bad for the sport it’s a disruption. What’s bad for the sport is long term demand declines and aging demographics. COVID is compressing years of change into a small window. Maybe this is the forcing function that causes wholesale model changes to improve sustainability.
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Re: The state of Ironman racing 2020-2021 in the USA [wetswimmer99] [ In reply to ]
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wetswimmer99 wrote:
The former FDA chairman, Scott Gottlieb, stated a few days ago, that the spread in the US is so out of control, that he estimated the true positive rate is 12 times the current daily rate. So 50,000 cases is really 600,000 daily cases. Based off the spread, he felt that Covid will be spreading far, far less by the end of the year 2020, due to the exponential growth of the majority of US citizens being exposed and/or vaccine(s) coming out end of this year, early next. If his analysis is correct, US should hopefully be back closer to normal in 2021 for most things.

Herd Immunity: 70% of population exposed: 330 million in US * 0.7= 231 million cases needed. Status quo 3 million confirmed *10 = 30 million so far = 200 million cases still needed => 333 days left of mayhem....if the pandemic increases in speed even further I don't want to know how life in the US will look like for the rest of 2020, because then so many people will be sick at once that public services might just collapse entirely.

Let's just hope for the vaccine. But again producing billions and billions of doses is not gonna be done in a week.
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Re: The state of Ironman racing 2020-2021 in the USA [lyla] [ In reply to ]
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lyla wrote:
What is the point? Is it really a race in masks? It seems like going through the motions for the sake of “normality”. This is a pandemic, a novel virus, and there will be repercussions. It is great that the death rate is decreasing but millions are infected, millions are unemployed, the economy is on the brink, we cannot even figure out how to continue with essential institutions like schools. Racing is not a priority.

Much of what you pointed out is our own doing. Millions are unemployed because we killed our own economy completely unnecessarily. Schools should be in session.
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Re: The state of Ironman racing 2020-2021 in the USA [Flagster] [ In reply to ]
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Heard anything about Mountain Man in August in Flagstaff, I can't believe this will happen, but it hasn't been cancelled yet...
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Re: The state of Ironman racing 2020-2021 in the USA [triguy86] [ In reply to ]
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triguy86 wrote:
lyla wrote:
What is the point? Is it really a race in masks? It seems like going through the motions for the sake of “normality”. This is a pandemic, a novel virus, and there will be repercussions. It is great that the death rate is decreasing but millions are infected, millions are unemployed, the economy is on the brink, we cannot even figure out how to continue with essential institutions like schools. Racing is not a priority.

Much of what you pointed out is our own doing. Millions are unemployed because we killed our own economy completely unnecessarily. Schools should be in session.

It’s hard to bring back anything when people don’t take this seriously. If we could get everyone to be compliant and wear masks, you are exactly right. But there are too many selfish, dumb motherfuckers in this Country.
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Re: The state of Ironman racing 2020-2021 in the USA [turningscrews] [ In reply to ]
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turningscrews wrote:
triguy86 wrote:
lyla wrote:
What is the point? Is it really a race in masks? It seems like going through the motions for the sake of “normality”. This is a pandemic, a novel virus, and there will be repercussions. It is great that the death rate is decreasing but millions are infected, millions are unemployed, the economy is on the brink, we cannot even figure out how to continue with essential institutions like schools. Racing is not a priority.

Much of what you pointed out is our own doing. Millions are unemployed because we killed our own economy completely unnecessarily. Schools should be in session.

It’s hard to bring back anything when people don’t take this seriously. If we could get everyone to be compliant and wear masks, you are exactly right. But there are too many selfish, dumb motherfuckers in this Country.

That’s true. But wearing masks isn’t the difference in cases spiking or not. Let’s be serious.
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Re: The state of Ironman racing 2020-2021 in the USA [triguy86] [ In reply to ]
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That’s true. But wearing masks isn’t the difference in cases spiking or not. Let’s be serious. //

Of course it is, so stop being flippant. The virus is serious, and as every single country that has beat has shown us, is that masks are the primary weapon that everyone can use. Of course there are other mitigations, but everyone wearing a mask is #1 in combating this..
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Re: The state of Ironman racing 2020-2021 in the USA [monty] [ In reply to ]
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monty wrote:
That’s true. But wearing masks isn’t the difference in cases spiking or not. Let’s be serious. //

Of course it is, so stop being flippant. The virus is serious, and as every single country that has beat has shown us, is that masks are the primary weapon that everyone can use. Of course there are other mitigations, but everyone wearing a mask is #1 in combating this..

So you’re telling me if everyone would just wear a mask our case number wouldn’t be going up significantly? Come on. I wear a mask everywhere but I think we are grossly overestimating it’s utility.
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Re: The state of Ironman racing 2020-2021 in the USA [runbrassica] [ In reply to ]
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runbrassica wrote:
I share the same concern and forecast as you; 2020 is through and (in my most optimistic opinion) first half of 2021 is over too

this - 2021 is over until June / July
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