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The 2021 outlook for the US races
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What do you guys and girls think? I know that this is highly regional, but perhaps let's what you think is the outlook for

1. WTC races
2. Big city marathons
3. Independent races

I am thinking that no major race will take place before June. No big city marathons in 2021. WTC events start to happen in fall and primarily in the red states. No races in California in 2021.

Next races on the schedule: none at the moment
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Re: The 2021 outlook for the US races [alex_korr] [ In reply to ]
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Ultraman Arizona for March 2021 was cancelled last week.You would think that they could sneak a small niche event like this through without too much of an issue but sadly no.
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Re: The 2021 outlook for the US races [alex_korr] [ In reply to ]
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Assuming we get good traction on the vaccine roll out and broader cooperation with mask wearing and mitigation, I (optimistically) project WTC North America races to start 5/1- with 70.3 St George. That is my best case, at my personal likelihood of 70%, if not, I rate June at 85%, if not...something has gone very wrong (again), and the entire year is in jeopardy:-(
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Re: The 2021 outlook for the US races [alex_korr] [ In reply to ]
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MDot-wise

PR70.3 no
Oceanside 70.3 no
Galveston 70.3 yes
Haines City 70.3 yes
IM Texas: move or delay
Gulf coast 70.3 yes
Stg 70.3 yes
Choo 70.3 yes
Tulsa IM yes

Big City: I’ll go out on a limb and say it’ll be Boston, rescheduled to a sept or oct date

Independent races are already happening. Never stopped for some.
Last edited by: MadTownTRI: Dec 20, 20 21:23
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Re: The 2021 outlook for the US races [IntenseOne] [ In reply to ]
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IntenseOne wrote:
Assuming we get good traction on the vaccine roll out and broader cooperation with mask wearing and mitigation, I (optimistically) project WTC North America races to start 5/1- with 70.3 St George. That is my best case, at my personal likelihood of 70%, if not, I rate June at 85%, if not...something has gone very wrong (again), and the entire year is in jeopardy:-(

That is about what I would expect. I talked to a race organizer and his event for March is already postponed. He was telling me that he would need permits and other cash outlays starting about January or February. Usually sponsors would front the money to cover up front costs, but it is just too big a gamble. I am guessing that the Johnson and Johnson vaccine would make a big difference. That could show up in January if we are super lucky.
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Re: The 2021 outlook for the US races [grumpier.mike] [ In reply to ]
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grumpier.mike wrote:
IntenseOne wrote:
Assuming we get good traction on the vaccine roll out and broader cooperation with mask wearing and mitigation, I (optimistically) project WTC North America races to start 5/1- with 70.3 St George. That is my best case, at my personal likelihood of 70%, if not, I rate June at 85%, if not...something has gone very wrong (again), and the entire year is in jeopardy:-(


That is about what I would expect. I talked to a race organizer and his event for March is already postponed. He was telling me that he would need permits and other cash outlays starting about January or February. Usually sponsors would front the money to cover up front costs, but it is just too big a gamble. I am guessing that the Johnson and Johnson vaccine would make a big difference. That could show up in January if we are super lucky.
While vaccines will hopefully lead to a huge improvement in the situation, it's not just about when they become available. It's about production rates, distribution effectiveness, uptake, and duration of effectiveness. It's likely to take some time for sufficient quantities to be produced to vaccinate a majority of the population in most western countries. As I understand it the US was looking a bit worse off than Europe for example due to having failed to take up purchase options on some of the front-runners. Perhaps this has changed?
Also, to the best of my knowledge there's still a crucial unknown: Will vaccines prevent the vaccinated from spreading the virus?

Let's not get into too much speculation and picking numbers. The same discussions happened back in March and April when events were being cancelled and plenty people here speculated we'd all be back up and running by mid to late summer.....
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Re: The 2021 outlook for the US races [alex_korr] [ In reply to ]
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Races this summer should be good to go. I got my first dose Saturday. I just re-booked my Edmonton flights for the end of August. I feel confident we can get a big race in by then. I'm still worried about the Olympics. I feel like we will have enough vaccinated for them to safely operate. However, qualification is going to be difficult for some sports, including triathlon.

https://www.strava.com/athletes/23685202
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Re: The 2021 outlook for the US races [alex_korr] [ In reply to ]
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I can’t speak for the first two, but all three of our races are a go for next year (Grand Rapids Tri, Michigan Titanium, and The Dirty Mitten).

The latter two are in August and September, respectively, so they are more likely to look like a “normal” race.

Grand Rapids takes place in June and we have made some pretty big changes to give it the best chance of going off... the two biggest being moving to a two day format (shorter distances on Saturday, Olympic and half on Sunday) and moving to a new transition area that will allow for hundreds of bike racks even if they need to be spaced out along with improved traffic flow.

We opened registration to deferred athletes last week for MiTi and TDM and have had a solid response... GR opens next Monday along with general registration for the other two events. We are capping the number of participants to start and will (hopefully) be opening more spots as we get closer to race day and we see what, if any, restrictions we are under.

A related note, the response for the full distance at MiTi has been unbelievable, most likely due to the WTC events being sold out... this should be far and away the biggest field we have had for the full.
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Re: The 2021 outlook for the US races [alex_korr] [ In reply to ]
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Honestly, I am not ready to speculate. Seeing the development of a new variant in the UK that we know nothing about is scary but the scarier thing is that the more infections there are (as it is in the US) the higher chances of new strains. I am hoping for best but preparing for the worst.

808 > NYC > PDX > YVR
2024 Races: Taupo
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Re: The 2021 outlook for the US races [hadukla] [ In reply to ]
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I'm guessing zero chance of anything in the first half of the year any bigger than a small local event.
And its not because I think things will 'go wrong', its because I think the vaccine rollout will take a lot longer than people realize, and a long time for numbers to come down.
Quebec has 2000+ positives per day right now, there is no way they are going to OK a 70.3 in Tremblant in June. And I don't have a lot of hope for the full in August either.

The numbers in the US are just bonkers right now.......its gonna take time.
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Re: The 2021 outlook for the US races [Ai_1] [ In reply to ]
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Quote:
As I understand it the US was looking a bit worse off than Europe for example due to having failed to take up purchase options on some of the front-runners. Perhaps this has changed?

Unless ironman pulls the plug pre-emptively due to optics/ PR, you need to look at the politics of their governor and their county/ municipal governments. It's business as usual and there is pressure from all sides to pull these off.

So looking at the states with on the calendar before June:

At a minimum, confident these will happen:
The Florida races
Oklahoma race
Tennessee race

We know the cali race(s) wont happen before june:
Oceanside (CA)

Maybe-- anyone have a gut on these?
Galveston (already cancelled in Nov)
IM Texas (imo county government makes this a likely postpone or course change)
St. George (cancelled last year... but may is a long ways away)
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Re: The 2021 outlook for the US races [null-and-void] [ In reply to ]
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Here is a normalized chart of cases amount states. I've highlighted a confident, a maybe, and a won't. I'm not seeing a glaring difference amount the three. I won't try guessing which races will happen because I've been wrong all this year, but I don't think many states can take a moral high ground at the moment.

91-DIVOC
Last edited by: Traket92x: Dec 21, 20 15:13
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Re: The 2021 outlook for the US races [null-and-void] [ In reply to ]
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null-and-void wrote:
Note the states identified with confidence, and note the states identified as maybe; they are not bastions of social responsibility and they have done remarkably little to slow the spread of the virus. And even if these races are held (and even if you happen to be one of the early recipients of a very limited supply vaccine), is it responsible to race, when other lives can be put at risk?

If I were to predict, we will see racing in socially regressive areas, which will do little to improve our overall situation.

BAHAHA!!! ROFLOL!!!

Not a coach. Not a FOP Tri/swimmer/biker/runner. Barely a MOP AGer.
But I'm learning and making progress.
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Re: The 2021 outlook for the US races [MadTownTRI] [ In reply to ]
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MadTownTRI wrote:
Quote:
As I understand it the US was looking a bit worse off than Europe for example due to having failed to take up purchase options on some of the front-runners. Perhaps this has changed?


Unless ironman pulls the plug pre-emptively due to optics/ PR, you need to look at the politics of their governor and their county/ municipal governments. It's business as usual and there is pressure from all sides to pull these off.

So looking at the states with on the calendar before June:

At a minimum, confident these will happen:
The Florida races
Oklahoma race
Tennessee race

We know the cali race(s) wont happen before june:
Oceanside (CA)

Maybe-- anyone have a gut on these?
Galveston (already cancelled in Nov)
IM Texas (imo county government makes this a likely postpone or course change)
St. George (cancelled last year... but may is a long ways away)

Florida races will happen. St George is a likely scratch.
Not sure about Texas.

Next races on the schedule: none at the moment
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Re: The 2021 outlook for the US races [LEBoyd] [ In reply to ]
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LEBoyd wrote:
null-and-void wrote:
Note the states identified with confidence, and note the states identified as maybe; they are not bastions of social responsibility and they have done remarkably little to slow the spread of the virus. And even if these races are held (and even if you happen to be one of the early recipients of a very limited supply vaccine), is it responsible to race, when other lives can be put at risk?

If I were to predict, we will see racing in socially regressive areas, which will do little to improve our overall situation.

BAHAHA!!! ROFLOL!!!

As I was reading, I kept telling myself “don’t bite, don’t bite”.
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Re: The 2021 outlook for the US races [alex_korr] [ In reply to ]
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Just keep training. Get FaF.

I don’t train to race. I train because it’s a lifestyle. Whether the races happen or not, I’’ll be ready. If they happen, great. If they don’t, I’ll do a mix of local events and races against myself.

I did a DIY duathlon this year the same day my 70.3 was cancelled. It rained cats and dogs. It was just as fun as any MDot race.
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Re: The 2021 outlook for the US races [wintershade] [ In reply to ]
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Not that this is in any way definitive, but I found it somewhat hopeful when IM named the NA championship events a couple weeks ago. Perhaps they have some confidence the May St G will happen?
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Re: The 2021 outlook for the US races [wintershade] [ In reply to ]
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wintershade wrote:
Just keep training. Get FaF.

I don’t train to race. I train because it’s a lifestyle. Whether the races happen or not, I’’ll be ready. If they happen, great. If they don’t, I’ll do a mix of local events and races against myself.

I did a DIY duathlon this year the same day my 70.3 was cancelled. It rained cats and dogs. It was just as fun as any MDot race.

This, exactly.
I've pretty much written off racing for 2021. Even if a few races happen in the US (all sold out of course), for us Canadians, if we travel to any other country for a race, we would likely be facing a 2 week quarantine upon return to Canada, which is difficult for those of us with jobs and families. But I love training and hate feeling fat, so running with friends and treadmill, and hours on the kickr, shall continue!
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Re: The 2021 outlook for the US races [SBRcanuck] [ In reply to ]
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Is it generally felt in Canada that the two week quarantine requirement will still be in place for summer?
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Re: The 2021 outlook for the US races [Traket92x] [ In reply to ]
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Traket92x wrote:
Is it generally felt in Canada that the two week quarantine requirement will still be in place for summer?

Let me find my magic 8 ball..... ;)

Strictly my opinion, looking at the current situation, which is:

Quebec and Ontario having their worst numbers since the start of all this
US states having daily positives of 60k+....

I just don't see the overall situation changing that quickly. Vaccine rollout, multiple doses, getting numbers down, I think it will take a lot of time and I do not think you will see Canada open its borders nor remove quarantine rules.

Just as an example here in the maritime provinces...
Nova Scotia currently has about 28 active cases with 2 new cases yesterday.
New Brunswick has 48 active cases with 4 new cases yesterday.

New Brunswick is requiring travelers from Nova Scotia (as well as anywhere else) to quarantine for 2 weeks upon entering.

So given those rules in place even with incredibly low numbers, no, I don't think rules are going to be lifted much in general in Canada, given what is going on in larger provinces and the rest of the world.
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Re: The 2021 outlook for the US races [alex_korr] [ In reply to ]
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I'm contemplating signing up for an IMMOO foundation slot but I just do not know. I'm waiting for confirmation that the race will actually happen. How will I get confirmation you may ask? No clue.
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Re: The 2021 outlook for the US races [alex_korr] [ In reply to ]
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alex_korr wrote:
What do you guys and girls think? I know that this is highly regional, but perhaps let's what you think is the outlook for

1. WTC races
2. Big city marathons
3. Independent races

I am thinking that no major race will take place before June. No big city marathons in 2021. WTC events start to happen in fall and primarily in the red states. No races in California in 2021.

For North America:

WTC races - May
Big City marathons - June
Independent races - January starting with HITS Sarasota
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Re: The 2021 outlook for the US races [wintershade] [ In reply to ]
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wintershade wrote:
Just keep training. Get FaF.

I don’t train to race. I train because it’s a lifestyle. Whether the races happen or not, I’’ll be ready. If they happen, great. If they don’t, I’ll do a mix of local events and races against myself.

I did a DIY duathlon this year the same day my 70.3 was cancelled. It rained cats and dogs. It was just as fun as any MDot race.

For sure. The plan is to train as much possible. Nothing changed on that front.
It's just that I like to do a marathon early in the season - it helps me not to get fat over the winter. I signed up for a marathon in March, now it is moved to May, at this rate I have a feeling that it will get pushed again. If that happens, I will need to re-focus on SBR hoping that we get some races in fall.

Next races on the schedule: none at the moment
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Re: The 2021 outlook for the US races [SBRcanuck] [ In reply to ]
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SBRcanuck wrote:
I'm guessing zero chance of anything in the first half of the year any bigger than a small local event.
And its not because I think things will 'go wrong', its because I think the vaccine rollout will take a lot longer than people realize, and a long time for numbers to come down.
Quebec has 2000+ positives per day right now, there is no way they are going to OK a 70.3 in Tremblant in June. And I don't have a lot of hope for the full in August either.

The numbers in the US are just bonkers right now.......its gonna take time.

Keep in mind that we may not need 100% vaccine coverage before things start to open up - you probably need just the vulnerable population vaccinated.

If you had 60+ or 50+ cohorts vaccinated by June, my guess is that the QC government would be fine with an event like this, especially since they'd be eager to get the economy going again. We would need to still socially distance, masks, etc. in order for the event to go off, but the risk posed to the vulnerable populations would be much reduced.

Q2 is when we can expect ~50% of Canada to be vaccinated. https://www.macleans.ca/...a-when-can-i-get-it/

Just my 2 cents though, as someone signed up for the event
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