If you were Lawson Craddock, you would not look forward to this stage.

I hope he makes the time cut. Predictions of close to 60kph average sounds rough when he has a brown scapula.
I just hope it all stays close at the end. I hope Dumolain and sunweb do a ride so Sky don't dominate.

Fearless predictions:
Sky, then about 20 seconds to Michelton Scott/BMC/Sunweb. Quickstep maybe in the that group but maybe behind a bit.
Thomas in yellow, but he'll fade away by the end of the second week.
The Froome/Porte/Yates losses across Stage 1 will likely be reversed or even added to on the other side of the equation. Bardet, Nibali, Uran and Dan Martin will lose around 2 minutes or so.
Craddock won't come near the time cut, even if he starts.

I tend to agree that Thomas will fade by second week. In second week we have the two Alpine stages including Madeleine+Croix de Fer+ Alpe d'Huez. By then he is back to Froome helper mode. I think it will be hard for Dumoulin to take the yellow from Thomas. Those two guys are currently tied. I hope he can. The Roubaix stage can easily flip the results from this TTT totally into another direction. I think Dumoulin can take yellow then if he stays in striking distance. I would think Froome will be happy if that happens and he stays very close.

I assume these pics from warmups are not in actual race skinsuits.

[quote devashish_paul
After some initial climbing it is gradual drop in elevation to the halfway point or so. Nothing really to see here.[/quote]
Those 3 hills are small but when the range of weight is 20kg between lightest and heaviest riders, there is 70watts difference in their CPs and .04 difference in their CDAs that's just enough to make planning and execution critical. It becomes really easy for a rider to get dropped if the riders don't follow the plan.

Those 3 hills are small but when the range of weight is 20kg between lightest and heaviest riders, there is 70watts difference in their CPs and .04 difference in their CDAs that's just enough to make planning and execution critical. It becomes really easy for a rider to get dropped if the riders don't follow the plan.[/quote]
Thanks for the insights....so Sky could easily drop Luke Rowe if they are not careful and they want him as a awind protector for the flats and downhills. What about the other top TTT teams?

Not dropping him is critical, not as much for keeping the train operating as fast as possible, but they have to meet a cutoff and drop your heavy guy on the first climb and he probably won't make the cutoff on his own.

So the planning takes a ton of time, many simulations and then when you have a plan. Bam! One the guys you are counting on fractures his elbow the day before. Losing Sanchez really hurts

Bernal rides very good in the sky train for a small guy.

But they lost Rowe and Poels.

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10k - 30:48 / half - 1:06:40

Watching right now. I noticed the entire Drapac team is on rim brake Super Slices. Very interesting.

Damn, stuck in a meeting!!!! This is killing me.

If prelim holds who from BMC wears yellow tomorrow?

greg van avermaet would wear the yellow I thought I heard them say.

YESSSSS

Love GVA! Happy to see BMC get the win today.

Looks like Quintana has an 70 to 60 second hole on main rivals but 95 to make up on Uran
From cyclingnews:

17:26:50 CEST
Just a few teams to finish now and here's an updated look at where the GC riders rank.

Greg Van Avermaet (Bel) BMC Racing Team 9:08:55
Tejay van Garderen (USA) BMC Racing Team 0:00:00
Geraint Thomas (GBr) Team Sky 0:00:03
Rigoberto Uran (Col) EF Education First-Drapac p/b Cannondale 0:00:35
Richie Porte (Aus) BMC Racing Team 0:00:51
Jakob Fuglsang (Den) Astana 0:00:52
Alejandro Valverde (Spa) Movistar Team 0:00:54
Mikel Landa (Spa) Movistar Team 0:00:54
Chris Froome (GBr) Team Sky 0:00:55
Adam Yates (GBr) Mitchelton-Scott 0:01:00
Vincenzo Nibali (Ita) Bahrain-Merida 0:01:06
Romain Bardet (Fra) AG2R La Mondiale 0:01:15
Egan Bernal (Col) Team Sky 0:01:19
Daniel Martin (Irl) UAE Team Emirates 0:01:39
Warren Barguil (Fra) Fortuneo-Samsic 0:01:47
Nairo Quintana (Col) Movistar Team 0:02:09

Maybe Quintana now becomes a super domestique for Landa and Valverde

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Excuse my lack of knowledge about the TTT format and strategy. I would have expected pulls closer to 1’ each. I found a training peaks article to support that assumption.

What surprised me is it seems like each team had their riders take pulls of closer to 10”. Was there something different about the course or the wind today that made the short pulls at big w/kg the right strategy?

Bardet has got to be pretty happy about only being down :20 to Froome after the TTT

Yeah, Porte is right up there with Froome. A battle of these two guys would be cool.

And Dumoulin can ride his diesel engine and save as much energie as possible. The 40s Froome has to close will certainly hurt and cost matches. Hopefully Dumoulin is in the same shape as he was at the Giro.

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10k - 30:48 / half - 1:06:40

there are still a bunch of these tricky stages + the cobbles! before the mountains start shaking these guys out.
there are a few contenders who are more likely to benefit from these stages but still luck has so much to do with it (flats/caught behind other crashes/etc..). i could see roglic/dumoulin/nibali/fuglsang getting through these stages better than most - but who knows?? i don't see quintana gaining time - so he'll have to endure the same old questions until he can light it up on the first mtn stages.
today - i think quick step (and maybe bora a little) might have suffered from the late start and maybe too much info and digging so hard at times that they dropped people before they got as much from everyone as they could have. gilbert was so close!
and... lawson craddock -- wow. i can't even fathom managing all those efforts and the handling (so many speed humps in europe!) on his fractures. i have to imagine his breathing isnt compromised like with rib injuries. nonetheless i'm amazed. maybe he can survive the cobbled stage??

Any idea of what happened to Sagan? It looked like he was really struggling... almost like he wasn't comfortable on his bike and he was cramping. He never took a pull at the front. How hard can it be to sit behind three guys (minimum) in a TTT?

Could be a lot of things... he won the sprint yesterday, they may be resting him for the mountains, etc.

He’s not a slouch on a TT bike as he won a Tour of California tt to win that tour if I remember correctly.

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Madison photographer Timothy Hughes | Instagram

At 55km/h sustained? Hard enough.

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