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TDF Speculation - Stage 20
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So what's going to happen if Lance and Jan are close after Saturday? Is the race over, or does the second place team try to break away and get first on stage 20? How close does it have to be for them to duke it out? I've never followed stage 20 before since Lance has had the race in hand the last few years, but I'd imagine there are some sprinters trying to get a win, as well as the usual break away attempt. Seems like it could be crazy.

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"What the mind can conceive and believe, the mind and body can achieve; and those who stay will be champions."
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Re: TDF Speculation - Stage 20 [Jack in Mi] [ In reply to ]
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I am not sure of the exact history. However, from what I have seen over the last 10 - 20 years it is almost impossible for someone who is up there in the GC, in particular someone threatening the Yellow Jersey, to get away for a win or substantial time gain on a flat stage. It just does not seem to happen. The time trial on Saturday will likly determine the race winner and the top 10 GC places. The finale into Paris will likly, if it has not been done already, settle to points race( green jersey).

There was that one year when Lemond beat Fignon in a TT on the final day of the Tour or was that the second last day.


Steve Fleck @stevefleck | Blog
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Re: TDF Speculation - Stage 20 [Fleck] [ In reply to ]
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>>There was that one year when Lemond beat Fignon in a TT on the final day of the Tour or was that the second last day.<<

1989, a ITT on the last day. I have it on tape.

clm
Nashville, TN
https://twitter.com/ironclm | http://ironclm.typepad.com
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Re: TDF Speculation - Stage 20 [ironclm] [ In reply to ]
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Ullrich has said that if the race is closed to within a few seconds, then attacking will be acceptable in Paris.

Excuse me while I slober over myself thinking about that tape of Lemond in 89. I only wish I would have have been as big a fan back then.

The Cuban Comet
(Comets are unbelievably slow over Cuba)
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Re: TDF Speculation - Stage 20 [Jack in Mi] [ In reply to ]
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If the gap is more than say 20 seconds or so, an attack on Sunday would be unsportsmanlike. Bianchi riders would be splattered all over the road in bits and pieces. When the peloton caught Jan, he would end up splattered all over the road, with a DNF next to his name in the final standings. And Postal wouldn't be the only team doing it to him.
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Re: TDF Speculation - Stage 20 [Julian] [ In reply to ]
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I think there are two sprint lines during the stage, so Jan or Lance could pick up 12 seconds out on the course. Then there are the time bonuses at the finish. In all, there could be a 32 second change in overall times. Do I think that will happen, no. I think the sprinter teams will do all that they can to control the race at each of the sprint lines and then again at the finish. The green (points/sprinter) jersey still may be up for graps, so they'll all be gunning for that. I believe the green jerey changed backs after the final stage last year.

Of course it would be really neat to see Tyler jump clear again and finish in second, behind Lance, of course.

Adam
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Re: TDF Speculation - Stage 20 [Julian] [ In reply to ]
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That's assuming that Jan is the one that is behind by 20 seconds. I forgot about the sprint bonuses, it could definitely be a crazy finish.

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"What the mind can conceive and believe, the mind and body can achieve; and those who stay will be champions."
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Re: TDF Speculation - Stage 20 [Julian] [ In reply to ]
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'If the gap is more than say 20 seconds or so, an attack on Sunday would be unsportsmanlike.'

hum...don't know if i agree. why is trying to win unsportsmanlike? isn't winning the true form of sportsmanship?

customerjon @gmail.com is where information happens.
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Re: TDF Speculation - Stage 20 [customerjon] [ In reply to ]
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In Reply To:
'If the gap is more than say 20 seconds or so, an attack on Sunday would be unsportsmanlike.'

hum...don't know if i agree. why is trying to win unsportsmanlike? isn't winning the true form of sportsmanship?


Not because trying to win is wrong -- it's just that it is futile. The only way for Jan to break away and stay away would be for his teammates to muck up the peloton by hindering or crashing. The ONLY time a rider can stay away from a determined peloton (on a flat stage) is via some sort of bad conduct. A solo rider on a road bike cannot possibly ride more than, say, 31-32 mph for maybe 20-30 minutes. The peloton can go 33 all day long, and can boost it up to 35+ for an hour at a time.

There are at least three teams that will go to the front and die if they have to to bring Jan back. A break simply cannot happen. As you've seen this year (and many others) the only time breaks succeed on flat stages is when no team will go to the front to chase. Does anybody really think Jan can outride the whole Postal team in chase mode? Eddy himself couldn't outrun a determined team.

If Jan shows the slightest sign of looking for an attack or sprint points, Postal and Telekom will go to the front and yank that pack along at 33+ to eliminate any possibility of breaks or points for Jan. And THAT is common knowledge, and THAT is why Jan would be unsportsmanlike to screw with everybody's nice easy parade into Paris. These riders have waited three weeks for the "parade day" into Paris. The last thing they want is some futile break messing up their day.
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Re: TDF Speculation - Stage 20 [Jack in Mi] [ In reply to ]
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I think the race will be dedided on Saturday. Also if Lance or Jan are only seconds behind the other there is nearly no possibillty to get sprint bonifications. The team of the leader and the sprinter teams will 'destroy' any break away attempt by the 2nd placed.

But I suppose that Saturdays TT is very narrow. In the last TT Ulrich gained more on Amstrong than he has as lead. But I think and hope that Lance rides better than last time. It will be very close. Unfortunately I have to check in my bike for IM Switzerland during the TT. I hope to catch the finish on TV.

Felix
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