You have got to say that the GB team is on form, 4 stage winners from the tdf (Wiggins, Froome, Millar and Cavendish) plus the British champion in Stannard (who went well in the Tour Of Poland).

Its a cop out but cav will either be in the final group with a km to go or not win. Personally i think the circiut combined with tactics will combine to not allow him in a sprint finish.

That makes Sagan the prohibitive favorite, but after Sagan you could name 15 guys with a great shot. And that brings me back to why Cav wont win. With so many legit shots, as long as the finish isn't a big bunch, i think it will be attack and counter attacks form the get go.

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Styrrell

Any idea what the weather forecast is for tomorrow's race? I remember hearing earlier in the week it might be rainy. Haven't hear anything since.

Ha, it seems obvious, Cav will either or not win, but I understand what you mean.

Sagan is the odds on favorite. He just has a better shot of being in the lead group and being fresh enough to set himself up for a sprint finish. And when it comes down to the pseudo-sprinters (aka Classics Riders like Gilbert and Cancellara), Sagan has the legs to win.

But I suppose I'm supposed to say...Go Farrar! Hope he doesn't get into a fight with anyone at the Olympics.

I'm an idiot..

what time is this going to show in the U.S?

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COROS Sports Science

Cav lost 4kg and has been riding Box Hill more times than anyone can count.

I don't think there's any way he's getting dropped (or that there's any way Team Sky plus Millar and who knows maybe plus Bernie Eisel) let a break succeed.

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@kburnsgallagher
http://www.somerandomthursday.com

Latest weather is dry and around 21C.

2 am eastern time according to my NBC app.

Losing weight can work against him, he did the same last year and was lousy until he gained some back. Hopefully he learned where the sweet spot is. I'm sure he has climbed the hill a bunch, but that really doesn't mean a whole lot.

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Styrrell

No way Cav keeps up with Gilbert, Sagan, Cancellara, Boonen...etc. if they decide to attack on Box Hill.

He looked pretty good on Sunday.

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@kburnsgallagher
http://www.somerandomthursday.com

I think the constituents of any break will be the biggest determinent of whether it stays away. I don't think GB has a big enough team to control the race, so will need help from other teams. If some of the other big teams miss a break, they will have to work. If everyone relies on GB to control the race, then a breakaway has a good chance of staying away.

I think it's at 5 a.m eastern, 2 am pacific. Super psyched! Breakfast with champions!

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De que depende?

I think Cav will win, althought would much rather see Sagan win.

I'm going with Sagan...he and others will do everything they can to shed Cav before the final sprint. By the way, can anyone tell me what the terrain in the final 4000m, 2000m, 1000m, 400m looks like?

Pretty sure its flat but twisty.

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Styrrell

The finish is on the Mall, same place as the London Marathon. Assuming it arrives at the Buckingham Palace end, the finish is slightly uphill. It then depends on how far up the Mall they put the finish.

Here's the written description:

There is a run-in of some 30 miles from the last ascent of Box Hill to the chequered flag on the Mall, where the prologue time trial of the 2007 Tour de France finished, with only the small climb in Richmond Park, another keynote destination for London cyclists. Running through largely urban streets to the finish, the overall profile of the road race will be akin to a "flat" stage of the Tour de France, with corners and road furniture likely to make for a nervous race, where crashes may well be a factor.

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@kburnsgallagher
http://www.somerandomthursday.com

So even if Cav get's shed on the last climb of Box Hill, he has Wiggins to ride behind for 30 miles to deliver him to the peleton again?

Yup. Although its somewhat worrying that Wiggo was at the opening ceremonies ringing the Olympic bell in his yellow polo shirt rather than getting to bed early.

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@kburnsgallagher
http://www.somerandomthursday.com

i'm postponing my long ride tomorrow until Sunday so i can watch this. psyched! though if Cav wins, i may have to start drinking at 11am

Yes, plus Stannard, Millar anf Froome. Not a bad quad to drive the front of a race. Plus any professional allies and other teams that missed the break. It will be interesting to see how tactics in the race pan out. Will teams work with GB given that there are 3 medals on the line not just glory for the winner

What team would want to do that knowing that Cav will beat any of their riders in a pure sprint. Might as well just hang on behind GB and have them bring you to the line/attack from 10km out.