I would think previous marathon performance time(s) coupled with comparing training times before that performance and current training times would be as good an indicator as anything but I’m not a marathoner so what do I know!! But that’s what I use to predict any race performance.

When I used to be in 2:40 shape, one of my staple marathon workouts 3 weeks before the race was 8 miles total on a track or treadmill (not counting warmup and cooldown). Mile 1 = Marathon pace, Mile 2 = 30secs faster. Alternate back and forth for 8 miles total as one continuous run.
When I could do this, usually 6:15/5:45 paces, and when the workout was over I felt tired but also energized, then I knew I was in marathon pace shape. Warmup was typically 2 miles easy. Cooldown was also 2 miles easy and I did not feel absolutely dead.

If I was dead or could not finish the workout, I knew I needed to back off marathon pace and slow a bit on race day.

Thats my staple workout for estimating pace.

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I would think someone who's run a 2:35 would know themselves well enough to know what a reasonable Target is for them.... But failing that, run a 10k or even a 5k and use the mcmillan calculator.

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I find it hard to believe that your friend has no reference for or idea of his current fitness, with that type of run pedigree.
I would think he could/would do a workout(s) from the prior build and see how it goes, and judge/compare from there.

He’s young and rarely had good coaching so not that experienced. Also has mainly been a track runner and moving up to longer distances.

I think we both suspect he’s not in 2:30 shape, but wanted to see if there’s a reliable test. He was thinking of running the Philly half, but I persuaded him that was too long too close to NY.

Thanks, that’s helpful. He did an 8m tempo this week at 5:55 pace with 2 mile easy warm up and cool down. Will suggest he might do something like this next week.

Have him run a marathon in NYC and see what his average pace is. That's a reliable marathon pace test.

Find a similar course 1/2 marathon race, and if he runs 1;10 or so, then he is ready for a 2;30. If he doesnt, then double it and add 10 minutes, that is usually ones time all things being equal.

But if he ran a 2;35, just do an analysis of that particular race, and just see where he can get 5 more minutes, it isn't that big a chunk at that pace. Now 2;15 to 2;10, that is well outside of low hanging fruit..

Two weeks out, do an 18-20 miler. About 3-4 miles into the run, pick it up to goal marathon race pace and hold 11-12 miles at goal pace. If you can do it, regardless of how hard it is, you have a very good shot at holding that pace in a race. I'm assuming your taper is rather short and steep and so, 2 weeks out, you are not supremely rested

Not sure how universal that is, but it worked for me about 9 or 10 times. When I could do the workout, I could hold it in the race. When I could not do the workout, my marathon race pace had to yield or I blew up.

He should also consider the PIA logistics of the NYC marathon and the rollers at the end.

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The first time man split the atom was when the atom tried to hold Jens Voigt's wheel, but cracked.

I’m no running coach but I do know that NYC is not London or Philly in terms of course difficulty. If I could run the same time in NYC as I did in London, I’d consider it a better race.

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808 > NYC > PDX > YVR
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Two weeks out, do an 18-20 miler. About 3-4 miles into the run, pick it up to goal marathon race pace and hold 11-12 miles at goal pace//

Like you, I think this was a great indicator of race pace too. Mine was a 17 miler, starting out brisk, and averaging race pace once finished, so going even faster at the end. I would run the exact same time on race day as the pace for this run, just have to stay healthy and uninjured up to race day..

Is doubling what can be run in a 70.3 pretty accurate if proper marathon training has been done?

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Is doubling what can be run in a 70.3 pretty accurate if proper marathon training has been done?

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Well since those runs are almost always short, probably not...(-;

But since you kids all have gadgets to tell you what pace and how many miles you are running, I would say a solid race run effort in a 1/2 and doubled would be pretty close. If you take the pros for example, Iden went about 1;09 low(accounting for it being just a little short), and I would suspect he could do a 2;18 marathon. And we know he had a solid run, he beat all the best on the day...Of course he would have to train for 4 or 5 weeks first, but that would be about enough for a young guy like that, who runs so efficient...

And now that think about it, my best 1/2 run that was accurate is exactly half my best marathon stand alone, so you just might be on to something..

Hi,

In Spain, a coach named Rodrigo Gavela developed a test to be run 10 to 14 days before a marathon. First you run 6000 metres at your marathon intended pace, then you rest 90 seconds and you run another 6000 metres at full speed. If you run 21:30 on the first 6k you need to run 19:36 on the second 6k and that gives you a best possible time of 2:31:12 in the full marathon and a more likely time of 2h33m. He has the tables in the link. Its not scientific but it kind of works quite nicely if you have enough volume trained, etc. It worked very well for my 3h03m marathon last year (25:30 first 6k and 22:48 second 6k).

Anyway good luck if you try this.

https://www.foroatletismo.com/...vela-maraton-2x6000/

Thanks for posting. He says it may be most accurate for slightly slower runners, but still could be worth a try.

So he was hoping to get under his PR of 2:35 in NYC and did it within a few seconds with a 2:34.xx He was going well through half way but then consciously backed off about 5 secs/mile around mile 15, then held on well through the end.

We're thinking that a 2:34 at NYC may be a good platform for a sub-2:30 on a faster course in the spring.

(*dont waste time on Yassir at his level)

The courses-are clearly not similar. London top 10 times ~2:02-2:08, ny 2:08-212

I don’t know how the weather compares on those days but NY looks to be 5-6 min slower.

A 2:35 M=vdot of 63.8
An equivalent half marathon for that 1:14 (close to 1/2 the marathon time + 10 actually)

He’ll have to run the equivalent of a 2:25 at London or a vdot of 69. That’s a huge difference. The kind that takes years... that would require an equivalent half of 1:09!

That’s 5:32 marathon pace instead of 5:43.

That’s a mighty big difference.

The 5 bridge marathon is harder than people think.


Sounds like he did well-improved based on the harder course...

I agree with this. Sitting in the corral on Staten Island makes it harder to time the meal before the race. I ran it 2x and felt like I underperformed by 3-4 mins both times (I am a roughly 3:10-3:15 marathoner).

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Next races on the schedule: none at the moment

Congrats to your friend! It was a great year for weather.

NYC is usually ranked as the hardest major in terms of course difficulty. Estimates vary from about 2-4 minutes for how much harder NYC is compared to the fastest of the majors (Berlin/London/Chicago) -- scroll down to Malmo's post here: https://www.letsrun.com/...d.php?thread=5473479

I ran NYC this year and I'd guess that the hills took about 2 minutes off what I could have run on a flatter course, especially the 5th Ave hill up into the park and the subsequent rollers in the park itself.