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What if Wurf, Keinle, Sanders, Skipper & Long all team up on the bike @ Kona 2021?
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What if Wurf, Keinle, Sanders, Skipper & Long all team up on the bike @ Kona 2021?


How does that race play out for Frodeno, Lange, AB?

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Re: What if Wurf, Keinle, Sanders, Skipper & Long all team up on the bike @ Kona 2021? [milesthedog] [ In reply to ]
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This is how Macca beat Crowie in 2010. He recruited Raynard Tissink, Marino and Faris to be his "Sky-Train" to deliver him to T2 with a 7 min gap on Crowie....as Macca and Crowie could both run low 2:40's as long at Macca ran mid 2:40's the game is over.

The difference is the Macca train did not need to pass the leaders. They were the leaders at T1. Frodo is always a swim leader at T1 and the likes of Sanders and Wurf have to ride all the way past Waikaloa before they even get close to Frodo.
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Re: What if Wurf, Keinle, Sanders, Skipper & Long all team up on the bike @ Kona 2021? [milesthedog] [ In reply to ]
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milesthedog wrote:
What if Wurf, Keinle, Sanders, Skipper & Long all team up on the bike @ Kona 2021?


How does that race play out for Frodeno, Lange, AB?

What other assumptions are you making in your hypothetical?
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Re: What if Wurf, Keinle, Sanders, Skipper & Long all team up on the bike @ Kona 2021? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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You just reminded me how exciting it was to see all the tactics play out in 2019... What a race!
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Re: What if Wurf, Keinle, Sanders, Skipper & Long all team up on the bike @ Kona 2021? [DFW_Tri] [ In reply to ]
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- decent wind
- nobody retires
- everyone swims as good as 2019
- no new itu guys in the mix
- procycling doesnt hamper your swim
- racing /qualifying is possible
- canyon doesnt release a front/back monofork uber tt bike
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Re: What if Wurf, Keinle, Sanders, Skipper & Long all team up on the bike @ Kona 2021? [milesthedog] [ In reply to ]
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Can I use this thread to rehash the draft distance discussion for the presumably millionth time? I know it's been talked about before but I've never really understood the arguments for a longer draft distance until recently. I think I even kind of scoffed at Sanders in 2017 when he said he wasn't going to go to 70.3 Worlds because it would be a draft fest (paraphrased).

Having realized the massive benefit of racing in a legally spaced pack, it makes me desperately want a longer draft zone. In Cozumel, I only ended up riding 250w avg, but had nearly my fastest bike split ever. I wanted to ride harder, but with the winds, I knew that if I tried to break away from my small pack of 4, I wouldn't be able to drop them and I'd just end up doing all the work off the front for no benefit. Instead I sat in the pack, leading as little as possible except for two surges. Boring. At one point I did glance over my shoulder a few times to see someone sitting maybe 4 meters behind me, prompting me to sit up, give them the finger, and yell some not so nice things. He dropped back but it pissed me off. Saw him blatantly drafting off Taylor Reid right in front of me when our pack first caught him.

In addition, I would assume the drafting benefit does not scale linearly on distance. If someone cheats the distance to say 8 meters, right now they may not get a penalty because that's close enough, but they're also getting a much bigger benefit than the legal 10 meters. If the legal zone was 20 meters, if someone cheated up a bit to 16, they're benefit is much smaller.

So I guess the relevant part to your question is, does having the legal distance short enough that there is a benefit make racing more interesting? It certainly makes it more tactical but from a being in the race perspective that's kind of disappointing. Despite the potential benefits of drafting on the swim, triathlon is arguably an individual sport we do at the same time as others. I'd argue the mental aspect of being out there with others is tactical enough and we don't need to add in physical advantages to be gained as well.

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Re: What if Wurf, Keinle, Sanders, Skipper & Long all team up on the bike @ Kona 2021? [realbdeal] [ In reply to ]
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realbdeal wrote:
Can I use this thread to rehash the draft distance discussion for the presumably millionth time? I know it's been talked about before but I've never really understood the arguments for a longer draft distance until recently. I think I even kind of scoffed at Sanders in 2017 when he said he wasn't going to go to 70.3 Worlds because it would be a draft fest (paraphrased).

Having realized the massive benefit of racing in a legally spaced pack, it makes me desperately want a longer draft zone. In Cozumel, I only ended up riding 250w avg, but had nearly my fastest bike split ever. I wanted to ride harder, but with the winds, I knew that if I tried to break away from my small pack of 4, I wouldn't be able to drop them and I'd just end up doing all the work off the front for no benefit. Instead I sat in the pack, leading as little as possible except for two surges. Boring. At one point I did glance over my shoulder a few times to see someone sitting maybe 4 meters behind me, prompting me to sit up, give them the finger, and yell some not so nice things. He dropped back but it pissed me off. Saw him blatantly drafting off Taylor Reid right in front of me when our pack first caught him.

In addition, I would assume the drafting benefit does not scale linearly on distance. If someone cheats the distance to say 8 meters, right now they may not get a penalty because that's close enough, but they're also getting a much bigger benefit than the legal 10 meters. If the legal zone was 20 meters, if someone cheated up a bit to 16, they're benefit is much smaller.

So I guess the relevant part to your question is, does having the legal distance short enough that there is a benefit make racing more interesting? It certainly makes it more tactical but from a being in the race perspective that's kind of disappointing. Despite the potential benefits of drafting on the swim, triathlon is arguably an individual sport we do at the same time as others. I'd argue the mental aspect of being out there with others is tactical enough and we don't need to add in physical advantages to be gained as well.


If you think packs and the benefit are bad now, just wait until the first time you ride in a moto parade, and then you realize how you literally have no chance against the moto parade in a bigger race. And to be a little cheeky, I believe you wrote the piece... Five professional traits I admire (and the pros the exude them), but maybe it could get an update to include two more important traits... Leadership and Integrity.

The draft zone is 12 meters, we (at least when I raced) used the yellow dashes where they existed. The majority of pros follow a fair and equal distance spacing IMHO. You get the occasional bad apple. On flat courses it is much easier to control spacing than on rolling courses. On rolling courses it can be quite mentally taxing as all you are generally doing, or at least me, was mentally spending energy keeping proper spacing. 20m would be much better. But yes, we have hashed this topic so many times.

It would best for the pros to come with the leadership to enact change because it isn't going to happen from an ST debate here. Not sure if this is something the PTO is working toward but I am sure that everyone, well most everyone, would be in favor of 20m.

From a policy statement I have had this conversation many times but there needs to be blue card drafting (blatant drafting) and yellow card (unintentional) drafting. The majority of the drafting penalties in the male field should be yellow card but they should be doled out with higher frequency as well.


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Last edited by: Thomas Gerlach: Sep 30, 20 17:30
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Re: What if Wurf, Keinle, Sanders, Skipper & Long all team up on the bike @ Kona 2021? [milesthedog] [ In reply to ]
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You should consider the fact that the likes of Brownlee and Frodeno are as good cyclists, if not better, than all of them. Gomez and Lange might not be at the same level but close enough.

They are all also stronger swimmers than the guys you mentioned, so they will be at the front when you hypothetical pack catches them, they will jump on the pack (assuming legally drafting of course) and wait for the run.
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Re: What if Wurf, Keinle, Sanders, Skipper & Long all team up on the bike @ Kona 2021? [Engner66] [ In reply to ]
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Engner66 wrote:
You should consider the fact that the likes of Brownlee and Frodeno are as good cyclists, if not better, than all of them. Gomez and Lange might not be at the same level but close enough.

They are all also stronger swimmers than the guys you mentioned, so they will be at the front when you hypothetical pack catches them, they will jump on the pack (assuming legally drafting of course) and wait for the run.

I agree. This was precisely the reason I asked what other assumptions were being made. Without really knowing, I tend to believe that if they all started at the same place, Frodo and Alistair could keep up with or out bike that whole pack, save Wurf.
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Re: What if Wurf, Keinle, Sanders, Skipper & Long all team up on the bike @ Kona 2021? [milesthedog] [ In reply to ]
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I don’t think it really matters if they team up. The lead group is so large and fast leading up to hawi that those guys have to put in a huge effort just to catch them. Maybe (And I really mean maybe) they catch them by Hawi or on the way back home near kawaihae but they will have burned many matches. They still have to outrun some of the fastest guys to ever run in Hawaii (frodo and Lange). None of those guys listed have shown they are on the same level of running in kona as frodo/Lange.

Now if they can catch the front group and get a gap on frodo/Lange, that may be a different story. But with Frodo on top of his game, I don’t see that happening.

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Re: What if Wurf, Keinle, Sanders, Skipper & Long all team up on the bike @ Kona 2021? [realbdeal] [ In reply to ]
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realbdeal wrote:
Can I use this thread to rehash the draft distance discussion for the presumably millionth time? I know it's been talked about before but I've never really understood the arguments for a longer draft distance until recently. I think I even kind of scoffed at Sanders in 2017 when he said he wasn't going to go to 70.3 Worlds because it would be a draft fest (paraphrased).

Having realized the massive benefit of racing in a legally spaced pack, it makes me desperately want a longer draft zone. In Cozumel, I only ended up riding 250w avg, but had nearly my fastest bike split ever. I wanted to ride harder, but with the winds, I knew that if I tried to break away from my small pack of 4, I wouldn't be able to drop them and I'd just end up doing all the work off the front for no benefit. Instead I sat in the pack, leading as little as possible except for two surges. Boring. At one point I did glance over my shoulder a few times to see someone sitting maybe 4 meters behind me, prompting me to sit up, give them the finger, and yell some not so nice things. He dropped back but it pissed me off. Saw him blatantly drafting off Taylor Reid right in front of me when our pack first caught him.

In addition, I would assume the drafting benefit does not scale linearly on distance. If someone cheats the distance to say 8 meters, right now they may not get a penalty because that's close enough, but they're also getting a much bigger benefit than the legal 10 meters. If the legal zone was 20 meters, if someone cheated up a bit to 16, they're benefit is much smaller.

So I guess the relevant part to your question is, does having the legal distance short enough that there is a benefit make racing more interesting? It certainly makes it more tactical but from a being in the race perspective that's kind of disappointing. Despite the potential benefits of drafting on the swim, triathlon is arguably an individual sport we do at the same time as others. I'd argue the mental aspect of being out there with others is tactical enough and we don't need to add in physical advantages to be gained as well.


20m draft zone would be great, but you could only do it for pro's. There are so many AG's normally that it can be tough to keep to the current draft rules. It's not realistic to have 2000 athletes all 20+ plus meters apart. If it was done for pro's only, BOP pro's ans FOP AG's mixing could cause a bit of confusion!
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Re: What if Wurf, Keinle, Sanders, Skipper & Long all team up on the bike @ Kona 2021? [DFW_Tri] [ In reply to ]
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DFW_Tri wrote:
Engner66 wrote:
You should consider the fact that the likes of Brownlee and Frodeno are as good cyclists, if not better, than all of them. Gomez and Lange might not be at the same level but close enough.

They are all also stronger swimmers than the guys you mentioned, so they will be at the front when you hypothetical pack catches them, they will jump on the pack (assuming legally drafting of course) and wait for the run.


I agree. This was precisely the reason I asked what other assumptions were being made. Without really knowing, I tend to believe that if they all started at the same place, Frodo and Alistair could keep up with or out bike that whole pack, save Wurf.

Didn't the 3 man train of Wurf, Sanders, Kienle ride right through the field, including Frodeno, 3 years ago? Obviously, I'd never bet on a repeat of that, but the exact scenario premise described by OP did occur in 2017. And who won? The best runner......
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Re: What if Wurf, Keinle, Sanders, Skipper & Long all team up on the bike @ Kona 2021? [milesthedog] [ In reply to ]
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Frodeno can outride everyone on that list in Kona, except maybe Wurf.
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Re: What if Wurf, Keinle, Sanders, Skipper & Long all team up on the bike @ Kona 2021? [milesthedog] [ In reply to ]
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milesthedog wrote:
What if Wurf, Keinle, Sanders, Skipper & Long all team up on the bike @ Kona 2021?


How does that race play out for Frodeno, Lange, AB?

I love Lionel, but the game has changed and his chances of podiuming in Kona are all but gone. At least for the next few years. You can't give up 6 minutes on the swim and expect to win when you have the likes of Brownlee, Gomez, Frodo who are all strong riders and stronger runners. It would mean the likes of Sanders would have to ride a huge PB to catch the lead guys (without burning any matches) and then run a marathon 12 - 13min quicker than he ever has.

If those guys all rode together, they might catch the lead guys by T2, but would be out run anyway. The only way any of them get near the podium is if injury, illness, mechanicals etc hit 3 or 4 of the top guys.
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Re: What if Wurf, Keinle, Sanders, Skipper & Long all team up on the bike @ Kona 2021? [MadTownTRI] [ In reply to ]
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MadTownTRI wrote:
Frodeno can outride everyone on that list in Kona, except maybe Wurf.

Yeah I think he was only a minute or 2 off Wurf.
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Re: What if Wurf, Keinle, Sanders, Skipper & Long all team up on the bike @ Kona 2021? [milesthedog] [ In reply to ]
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milesthedog wrote:
What if Wurf, Keinle, Sanders, Skipper & Long all team up on the bike @ Kona 2021?

Frodo still wins.
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Re: What if Wurf, Keinle, Sanders, Skipper & Long all team up on the bike @ Kona 2021? [stevej] [ In reply to ]
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stevej wrote:
I don’t think it really matters if they team up. The lead group is so large and fast leading up to hawi that those guys have to put in a huge effort just to catch them. Maybe (And I really mean maybe) they catch them by Hawi or on the way back home near kawaihae but they will have burned many matches. They still have to outrun some of the fastest guys to ever run in Hawaii (frodo and Lange). None of those guys listed have shown they are on the same level of running in kona as frodo/Lange.

Now if they can catch the front group and get a gap on frodo/Lange, that may be a different story. But with Frodo on top of his game, I don’t see that happening.


70.3 World Results last year...

1Gustav IdenNOR 00:23:55 02:17:250 1:08:10 03:52:35-06:43US$ 45,000
2Alistair BrownleeGBR 00:23:17 02:17:38 01:10:43 03:55:19-03:00US$ 20,000
3Rodolphe Von BergUSA 00:23:31 02:17:24 01:12:15 03:56:45-06:40US$ 15,000
4Kristian BlummenfeltNOR 00:23:23 02:22:10 01:09:59 03:59:2101:57US$ 10,000
5Sebastian KienleGER 00:26:50 02:19:57 01:09:31 04:00:18-00:55US$ 7,500
6Bart AernoutsBEL 00:27:00 02:19:460 1:10:36 04:01:14-06:39US$ 6,500
7Javier GomezESP 00:23:22 02:24:070 1:10:09 04:01:3000:26US$ 6,000

In all seriousness I believe Sanders has the biggest engine in the field, he just isn't efficient enough. Kienle has proven he can run well after very very hard bike rides.


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Last edited by: Thomas Gerlach: Sep 30, 20 23:33
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Re: What if Wurf, Keinle, Sanders, Skipper & Long all team up on the bike @ Kona 2021? [MadTownTRI] [ In reply to ]
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MadTownTRI wrote:
Frodeno can outride everyone on that list in Kona, except maybe Wurf.

Maybe maybe not. In Kona I can agree with this based on some factors above but in straight TT I would take Kienle, Sanders, Wurf for sure. Fwiw, I remember Ironman Racine 70.3 a few years back and the swim was cancelled and the pros did a TT. You should have seen the look on the contenders faces. They knew in a SBR they had a chance against but with Lionel drawing #1 start in the TT they were flabbergasted. Ironically he didn't even win that day, blamed it on I believe eating a huge second breakfast in the hours long rain delay.

Fwiw, I don't even know how we can include Long in this discussion either. He has proven to have a borderline swim and the train may be long gone before he can help propel it forward.

Also fwiw, Triratings has the rankings on the bike as Starky, Kienle, Wurf, Sanders, Frodeno. Frodo will be nearly 40 btw.


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Re: What if Wurf, Keinle, Sanders, Skipper & Long all team up on the bike @ Kona 2021? [WhittleFit] [ In reply to ]
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WhittleFit wrote:
milesthedog wrote:
What if Wurf, Keinle, Sanders, Skipper & Long all team up on the bike @ Kona 2021?


Frodo still wins.

Exactly. He will out swim them by 3 min. minimum, then just bike as he normally will, but not overextend at all. Get caught at some point, and just tug into the Sanders/Kienle/Wurff train and then outrun them all.
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Re: What if Wurf, Keinle, Sanders, Skipper & Long all team up on the bike @ Kona 2021? [Thomas Gerlach] [ In reply to ]
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Thomas Gerlach wrote:
stevej wrote:
I don’t think it really matters if they team up. The lead group is so large and fast leading up to hawi that those guys have to put in a huge effort just to catch them. Maybe (And I really mean maybe) they catch them by Hawi or on the way back home near kawaihae but they will have burned many matches. They still have to outrun some of the fastest guys to ever run in Hawaii (frodo and Lange). None of those guys listed have shown they are on the same level of running in kona as frodo/Lange.

Now if they can catch the front group and get a gap on frodo/Lange, that may be a different story. But with Frodo on top of his game, I don’t see that happening.


70.3 World Results last year...

1Gustav IdenNOR 00:23:55 02:17:250 1:08:10 03:52:35-06:43US$ 45,000
2Alistair BrownleeGBR 00:23:17 02:17:38 01:10:43 03:55:19-03:00US$ 20,000
3Rodolphe Von BergUSA 00:23:31 02:17:24 01:12:15 03:56:45-06:40US$ 15,000
4Kristian BlummenfeltNOR 00:23:23 02:22:10 01:09:59 03:59:2101:57US$ 10,000
5Sebastian KienleGER 00:26:50 02:19:57 01:09:31 04:00:18-00:55US$ 7,500
6Bart AernoutsBEL 00:27:00 02:19:460 1:10:36 04:01:14-06:39US$ 6,500
7Javier GomezESP 00:23:22 02:24:070 1:10:09 04:01:3000:26US$ 6,000

In all seriousness I believe Sanders has the biggest engine in the field, he just isn't efficient enough. Kienle has proven he can run well after very very hard bike rides.

Gustav Iden will compete at Kona 2021.
Based on your list he is a better swimmer, biker and runner than Seb.
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Re: What if Wurf, Keinle, Sanders, Skipper & Long all team up on the bike @ Kona 2021? [milesthedog] [ In reply to ]
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A lot of people smarter than me posted already, but to me it’s simple. Your question seems to assume the bike is a weakness for Frodeno. It isnt. He can hang with those guys then outrun them all. Also he will be 2 to 4 minutes ahead after the swim so he can take it easy (ish) until they catch up. Frodeno, even at his age, needs to have a bad day.

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Amateur a lot of things, professional a few things.
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Re: What if Wurf, Keinle, Sanders, Skipper & Long all team up on the bike @ Kona 2021? [Halvard] [ In reply to ]
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Halvard wrote:
Thomas Gerlach wrote:
stevej wrote:
I don’t think it really matters if they team up. The lead group is so large and fast leading up to hawi that those guys have to put in a huge effort just to catch them. Maybe (And I really mean maybe) they catch them by Hawi or on the way back home near kawaihae but they will have burned many matches. They still have to outrun some of the fastest guys to ever run in Hawaii (frodo and Lange). None of those guys listed have shown they are on the same level of running in kona as frodo/Lange.

Now if they can catch the front group and get a gap on frodo/Lange, that may be a different story. But with Frodo on top of his game, I don’t see that happening.


70.3 World Results last year...

1Gustav IdenNOR 00:23:55 02:17:250 1:08:10 03:52:35-06:43US$ 45,000
2Alistair BrownleeGBR 00:23:17 02:17:38 01:10:43 03:55:19-03:00US$ 20,000
3Rodolphe Von BergUSA 00:23:31 02:17:24 01:12:15 03:56:45-06:40US$ 15,000
4Kristian BlummenfeltNOR 00:23:23 02:22:10 01:09:59 03:59:2101:57US$ 10,000
5Sebastian KienleGER 00:26:50 02:19:57 01:09:31 04:00:18-00:55US$ 7,500
6Bart AernoutsBEL 00:27:00 02:19:460 1:10:36 04:01:14-06:39US$ 6,500
7Javier GomezESP 00:23:22 02:24:070 1:10:09 04:01:3000:26US$ 6,000

In all seriousness I believe Sanders has the biggest engine in the field, he just isn't efficient enough. Kienle has proven he can run well after very very hard bike rides.


Gustav Iden will compete at Kona 2021.
Based on your list he is a better swimmer, biker and runner than Seb.

Iden will be a real wildcard for Kona (if he actualle goes through with completing - Postponement of both KONA 2020 and the olympics threw a big wrench in his plans. Olympics will be priority 1, 2 and 3). I think Iden could do anything from smash Kona, to wither away in the heat. Even though he is a small, run-capable dude, I actually think his chances are best in a windy day where the likes of Patrick Lange blow away on the bike, and Kona will be a real duel between the strongest bikers.
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Re: What if Wurf, Keinle, Sanders, Skipper & Long all team up on the bike @ Kona 2021? [milesthedog] [ In reply to ]
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milesthedog wrote:
What if Wurf, Keinle, Sanders, Skipper & Long all team up on the bike @ Kona 2021?


How does that race play out for Frodeno, Lange, AB?

i think an interesting thing is the gap between the 'superbikers' and the non-superbikers. the numbers sometimes don't really match up to the reputations.

#2 bike split at kona last year was philip koutny!

for instance, sebi only biked a minute faster than frodeno last year. ali went 4:24 with a flat tyre and a lot of questionable tactics. assuming that the 'uber-train' of uberbikers could put 3/4 minutes into a train of ali, frodo, and - say - tim o'donnell, again - where would that leave them? given the swim splits, they 3/4 minutes really might not be enough to catch up, or only just near T2.

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Re: What if Wurf, Keinle, Sanders, Skipper & Long all team up on the bike @ Kona 2021? [milesthedog] [ In reply to ]
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Ironman Competition Rules:

Section 2.01 GENERAL BEHAVIOR Each athlete must:
(a) Practice good sportsmanship at all


...


(i) Compete without receiving assistance from other parties (other than from Race Referees, Race Officials, and other athletes in accordance with Section 2.02). Receiving assistance (other than in accordance with Section 2.02) will result in disqualification;


Section 2.02 ASSISTANCE
(
(d) Unless otherwise pre-approved by the Event Director or Head Referee, no athleteshall intentionally cause the physical forward progress of another athlete on any part of the course during the Race. The penalty for this will be disqualification.

Rules (a) and (i) of section 2.01 and especially Rule (d) of section 2.02 should forbid this I think?
I think it is also forbidden e.g. to have a bunch of good swimmers around you dedicated to give you an optimal swim.
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Re: What if Wurf, Keinle, Sanders, Skipper & Long all team up on the bike @ Kona 2021? [realbdeal] [ In reply to ]
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realbdeal wrote:
Can I use this thread to rehash the draft distance discussion for the presumably millionth time? I know it's been talked about before but I've never really understood the arguments for a longer draft distance until recently. I think I even kind of scoffed at Sanders in 2017 when he said he wasn't going to go to 70.3 Worlds because it would be a draft fest (paraphrased).

Having realized the massive benefit of racing in a legally spaced pack, it makes me desperately want a longer draft zone. In Cozumel, I only ended up riding 250w avg, but had nearly my fastest bike split ever. I wanted to ride harder, but with the winds, I knew that if I tried to break away from my small pack of 4, I wouldn't be able to drop them and I'd just end up doing all the work off the front for no benefit. Instead I sat in the pack, leading as little as possible except for two surges. Boring. At one point I did glance over my shoulder a few times to see someone sitting maybe 4 meters behind me, prompting me to sit up, give them the finger, and yell some not so nice things. He dropped back but it pissed me off. Saw him blatantly drafting off Taylor Reid right in front of me when our pack first caught him.

In addition, I would assume the drafting benefit does not scale linearly on distance. If someone cheats the distance to say 8 meters, right now they may not get a penalty because that's close enough, but they're also getting a much bigger benefit than the legal 10 meters. If the legal zone was 20 meters, if someone cheated up a bit to 16, they're benefit is much smaller.

So I guess the relevant part to your question is, does having the legal distance short enough that there is a benefit make racing more interesting? It certainly makes it more tactical but from a being in the race perspective that's kind of disappointing. Despite the potential benefits of drafting on the swim, triathlon is arguably an individual sport we do at the same time as others. I'd argue the mental aspect of being out there with others is tactical enough and we don't need to add in physical advantages to be gained as well.

Time based drafting instead of distance based drafting. The distance you have advantage increases with speed too, that problem isn't there with time based drafting.
Say 1 sec between amateurs, 5 sec between pros, and more time to pass. Easy to enforce too. Just add some more split timing mats, and have officials measure times. Even now you can sometimes see that the distance between 2 athletes is too small to be legal, just by looking at time differences in splits. When they're ~1 sec they're usually borderline legal. At 40 km/h 1sec = 11.1m.
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