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Re: Predict Gwen's Chicago Marathon Time [MadTownTRI] [ In reply to ]
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Eh I think the problem is 2 fold. You don't massively change olympic sports and think your going to be close WITHIN the same olympic cycle you say you'll win. Like when she committed "full time" to running, this was already what 1 year post Rio. So 3 year window to "win gold in marathon".....now of course I have no doubt she didn't really think that (i mean of course she thinks she's going to win, but her comments were more PR machine), this was all PR fluff, and she's hugely successful in getting paid by sponsors.

You don't go from a "low volume" athlete to a high volume sport and not see these kinds of "setbacks". Even if she's on the low volume approach for marathon mileage compared to her competitors, you just dont change these type of training dynamics and set the world on fire.

So yeah I get it, she kinda has egg on her face because of all the pomp and bravada with the announcement of winning gold in Tokyo in the marathon and now this is her current output. But I also think that's all fluff, but yes the athlete has to own it when they come off that way- whether genuine or PR contrived.


Lastly I'll say what triathlon does for people- it gives you a reprieve from run pounding. I dont think people understand just how important that can be to run a super hard run day and instead of having to run again later that day, you can go shake out the legs with a 4k swim and get very similiar cardio-fitness benefits. Of course it's all about specificity and so triathlon running and speeds required to win gold are much different than the equal counterpart in run only events. BUT when you become a triathlete and your body begins to take advantage of that system of play- it's really really hard to get away from that for a much harder on the body system like running; where many days your recovery from running is well running some more. And yes I think she still "cross trains" *some* but nothing like she used to.

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II
Last edited by: B_Doughtie: Oct 7, 18 8:36
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Re: Predict Gwen's Chicago Marathon Time [OldFart] [ In reply to ]
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This is pretty ridiculous and honestly she is flat out embarrassing herself. She ditched a sport that she was the best in the world at and that has given her so much to switch to something else - sure, I'm fine with that. My issue is that she seems to think that she can make the US team and take gold in Tokyo. That is insulting to the girls who have been working their whole life for a shot at the US team and a chance to win an Olympic medal.

She wont make the team. She has been training nearly a year for this race and turned in a worse performance than she did a couple months after Rio when she wasnt trained for the marathon. Sure, she went faster today but all things considered, she did worse than in NYC.
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Re: Predict Gwen's Chicago Marathon Time [Pat0] [ In reply to ]
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Pat0 wrote:
How is this amazing? She ran 2:41 in her debut with minimal training. A 2:36 i would consider pretty concerning after a year with Bowerman. Is it even qualifying time for trials?
I am a fan and i guess i expected a lot more. I assumed she would break 2:30.

[pink]She would have run faster than 2:36 at NYC if she had the vaporfly shoes![/pink] Yeah, this was pretty much terrible. If it were me I'd probably just go back to triathlon, not too late for 2020 to do that.

Dimond Bikes Superfan
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Re: Predict Gwen's Chicago Marathon Time [ericlambi] [ In reply to ]
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Was it raining in NYC?

I've never ran a good time in the rain.

Washed up footy player turned Triathlete.
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Re: Predict Gwen's Chicago Marathon Time [APKTRI] [ In reply to ]
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I dont know about embarrassing or egg on her face. Gwen has always been pretty humble and down to earth. With the one exception of her pronouncement regarding Tokyo. Which granted was pretty crazy. I dont know if she just got swept up in her Olympic Glory or what. But now it seems that she is pretty tempered in her blogs and such. I dont know about sponsors and even Bowerman. Will they continue to support her with these type of results? It will be interesting.
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Re: Predict Gwen's Chicago Marathon Time [APKTRI] [ In reply to ]
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Either there is a really good reason she ran so slow(like being sick) or her coach is just really out of touch with the kind of athlete she is. I blame the coach for this one, she could have run this time in a hard training run. I hope this shocks her and the coach, her potential was no where near this run, unless he had her do a hard 20 miler yesterday.

Other much lesser triathlete women have run faster than this, lots of them. Hell, I ran faster than this all broken down and old, and on 8 weeks of 40mpw training..Perhaps she needs to switch distance, 10k 1/2 perhaps? At any rate this run does not reflect the athlete she is, I hope Talbot gets us an interview..
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Re: Predict Gwen's Chicago Marathon Time [ericlambi] [ In reply to ]
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If it were me I'd probably just go back to triathlon, not too late for 2020 to do that.

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yes it is. She understands more than anything the demands it took to win gold in triathlon. She understands the sacrifice....eeeeer investments it took (that was a key point that her coach made her realize), and she with a new family really wanted no part of the grind that is ITU racing. She wouldn't imo make the team if she came back, the sport and athletes have already progressed that much forward. It would be too steep of a humbling experience and far too close to trials to re-do everything (1st trials race is less than 1 year away). It would mean a complete move of family and/or atleast herself. It would imo mentally grind her to breakdown going back and forth.

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II
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Re: Predict Gwen's Chicago Marathon Time [B_Doughtie] [ In reply to ]
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I agree. That ship has sailed. Besides she clearly stated her priority is her family. I doubt she would even consider leaving them to chase ITU.
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Re: Gwen's Marathon Debut - Chicago [HuffNPuff] [ In reply to ]
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HuffNPuff wrote:
hadukla wrote:
Her debut as a runner and not a triathlete! (pinkish)

So what's the guess on times? Her recent races don't seem to be good indicators given she has been running long miles around those events. Assuming it isn't a hot day, anyone thinks she can do sub 2:25?

Chicago is supposed to be pancake flat, but even with the finest weather conditions I don't see her breaking 2:30. Here are the 2017 woman who did break 2:30. Jordan Hasay in number 3 is the only American in that group. I doubt that Gwen will be anywhere near her. Chicago is where Gwen's olympic ambitions are going to get crushed.

Dibaba - 2:18:31
Kosgei - 2:20:22
Hasay - 2:20:57
Perez - 2:24:44
Kipketer - 2:28:05
Weighman - 2:28:45

Not even close to 2:30. As I predicted a year ago, she will not make the USA olympic team let alone marathon gold. Triathlon is a very different sport than standalone running.
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Re: Predict Gwen's Chicago Marathon Time [Pat0] [ In reply to ]
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Ha, relax. Her sponsors and coach aren't going to drop her no matter how this next 1.5-2 years goes. That's imo precisely why she came to running. This was going to be her golden ticket to atleast 1 olympic cycle worth of "cashing in" on her tri olympic gold- even if it ends in utter disaster and doesn't make the team. But she gets to stay home with her hubs and kid every single day. Quick....has she traveled outside of the U.S. yet for a race or training since she moved to marathon running? That's the win she was looking for- stability and training on someone else's dime. But she's set for atleast this cycle for sure with sponsors and likely most defintely her coaching/training group. For better or worse she's going to cash those big sponsor checks and keep running with the group. And even if it fails, she's already won. This is just gravy and filling her pockets for 2 more years with someone else's money with very little "investment" from her own.

That's why I thought her whole "i'm winning gold" was nothing more than PR bullshit. That was simply what happens when people around her were making decisions for her and thus when you want the sponsors money, you do what they say.

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II
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Re: Predict Gwen's Chicago Marathon Time [monty] [ In reply to ]
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Perhaps she needs to switch distance, 10k 1/2 perhaps? At any rate this run does not reflect the athlete she is, I hope Talbot gets us an interview..

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I dont think switching would be the answer, I mean you can't keep switching sports; that's the whole issue here imo (and i mean the issue in that she sorta pigeon holed herself to being this badass marathon runner before stepping foot back in running...and the fact that she was going to do it in a less than 3 year window from PR announcement-Tokyo marathon). And sure one of those distances she may be best at, but at some point, you have to stick to your guns and go "all in", or else by switching she's not going to see her best 10k training either because she'll have now lost what another year of "specificity". So I think at some point, you have to accept the decision you make and accept the final result; eta: regardless of if it was a good/bad/indifferent decision.

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II
Last edited by: B_Doughtie: Oct 7, 18 9:33
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Re: Predict Gwen's Chicago Marathon Time [Pat0] [ In reply to ]
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Pat0 wrote:
Is it even qualifying time for trials?

Yes, she just eked in under the 2:37:00 A standard
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Re: Predict Gwen's Chicago Marathon Time [B_Doughtie] [ In reply to ]
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I dont think switching would be the answer, I mean you can't keep switching sports;//

Come on man, that is not switching sports. The training for 10k/1/2 marathon is not all that different than the marathon, in fact a lot of speedy 10k guys used to run a very fast marathon just coming off of 10k training.


But that is neither here nor there, this was her worst result of this lead up, the 5k and 10k she ran through were better races. I said this very early on, and believe it to be the case still, she does not need high mileage like some runners do. She can race very well on a lower mileage program, and what is becoming apparent now, she gets broken down on a traditional marathon program. I don't know what is going to happen, if she went to the 5k or 10k and dropped 30 seconds and a minute, she would be 14;45 and about 30;45. What does that get you in the womens trials, I dont really know. But with our great marathon runners, 2;25 may not make the team, so time for some real hard looks at what is going on here..
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Re: Predict Gwen's Chicago Marathon Time [monty] [ In reply to ]
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I think you kinda missed my point in why I suggested it's not wise to "switch". More so in that you, what happens on her 1st real 10k experience she sucks? Do you say she switches to 5k/half/1mi? Etc. So my point was more that by suggesting she switch yet again, until you find the perfect distance you then are left with nothing in the end. Because if you are suggesting switching now, she's now only 2 years left to "nail it" for Tokyo.

ETA: And I would disagree that it's not a new "sport" for an athlete like GJ. To me it would be more similiar to what she's used to in the past with far more intensity over volume. So it would be closer to what she's used to, but it would still be a new specificity that she would be undertaking.


Of course this is looking at specifically for Tokyo because I dont think she's going to be an elite athlete post Tokyo. I think she's going to back away, be a mom of 2-3 kids (maybe she cant have anymore kids because 1st one was really really hard on her body), never to be heard from again; unless she does conference talk touring to make a boatload of money.


Essentially all I'm saying Monty is that when you sorta pigeon hole yourself to this type of specific window, you don't get a lot of time figuring out which one works best for you. That should have already been decided and then now we should be working on excelling the specificity of said sport- not figuring out which is best what 2 years from Tokyo.

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II
Last edited by: B_Doughtie: Oct 7, 18 9:47
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Re: Predict Gwen's Chicago Marathon Time [monty] [ In reply to ]
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Essentially why I suggested she shouldn't be switching is that she basically doesnt have the timeframe to be looking for what is the best distance for her. That should have already been decided upon and a training plan built to excel in that specific event.....not using 2 years of a 4 year cycle to figure out what event works best.

And again I say this because I think post Tokyo she's out. She's throwing her hands up and saying "mom/wife" time full time now.

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II
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Re: Predict Gwen's Chicago Marathon Time [B_Doughtie] [ In reply to ]
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There's always Ironman...

Personally I didn't know what to expect from her here. She hasn't raced enough at the marathon for me to gauge here. How many marathons does Shalane do per year?

Whereas we see the top Ironman athletes do multiple 70.3s and 140.6's per year, that may be just the way qualification went because of points but I'm not so sure. This was her A race, but I'm not sure she did enough B races and she didn't have a B race that was close enough in training to adequately test herself (6-weeks out half marathon).

Washed up footy player turned Triathlete.
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Re: Predict Gwen's Chicago Marathon Time [TheStroBro] [ In reply to ]
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What is the path of least resistance for her to return to triathlon in Tokyo? Could she keep with the marathon through a Spring race next year, decide it’s not happening, and then resume training and minimal overseas racing in time to make the team? If she shows form by early 2020, couldn’t USAT use their subjective process to name her with their third discretionary slot? That would be tough to do to one of the other strong female Americans, but you have to believe USAT would want the golden girl back out there.
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Re: Predict Gwen's Chicago Marathon Time [Poon] [ In reply to ]
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So you mean show little interest in itu and then only when every marathon option fails she comes back to USAT saying she’s ready in what early fall 2019?

And she’ll showcase her itu talent when and how in that scenario?

ETA: The whole reason why she is doing running and not triathlon is because she had ZERO interest in doing another 4 years of ITU life demands. She had zero interest in living/training in 4 different locations over a 10 month period. She had zero interest in raising a family that way. And that's what it would take for her to have success at ITU....she knew that more than anyone, she respected the sport and the process and understood it that much- look at how she did when she "part timed" it versus when she went "all in". So there is no "least path of resistance"; in fact it's the opposite of that. And that's the reality she faced and she knew it, so she mad a heady play of taking advantage of her fame and gold medal and parlayed it into another 3 years of paid training.

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II
Last edited by: B_Doughtie: Oct 7, 18 10:23
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Re: Predict Gwen's Chicago Marathon Time [B_Doughtie] [ In reply to ]
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Little wrinkle in the plot line... Gwen just mentioned being sick today in instagram... Interested to see what that's all about

Chasing PB Podcast Latest interview with Eli Hemming on Targeting a US MTR spot in Tokyo
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Re: Predict Gwen's Chicago Marathon Time [ericMPro] [ In reply to ]
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ericMPro wrote:
I don't see how this bodes well for her training or her psyche... she's going to fade to a 2:36 which is nowhere near where she wants or needs to be. Wouldn't it have been better to run with the lead pack until she couldn't and then pull the plug?

Do we know where she wants to be? I haven't seen her discuss a goal time but maybe I've missed it.
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Re: Predict Gwen's Chicago Marathon Time [ChasingPB] [ In reply to ]
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Little wrinkle in the plot line... Gwen just mentioned being sick today in instagram... Interested to see what that's all about //

I mentioned this earlier, it is the only reason for a positive spin on this race, that she did it sick. But that begs the question, why is she racing sick in the first place?? I do understand the pressure for her to get in a qualifying time, and if it was not full blown flu or a terrible cold, but perhaps the beginning or end of an illness, I can see the urge to race anyway.
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Re: Predict Gwen's Chicago Marathon Time [JoeO] [ In reply to ]
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based on her 5k and 10k times she probably wants to be around 2:27, which those performances would predict.

Aside from that who knows... top American at Chicago? Run a even or negative split, regardless of the time? It's hard to say where she herself wants to be. Certainly better than 2:36, sick or not.



JoeO wrote:
ericMPro wrote:
I don't see how this bodes well for her training or her psyche... she's going to fade to a 2:36 which is nowhere near where she wants or needs to be. Wouldn't it have been better to run with the lead pack until she couldn't and then pull the plug?


Do we know where she wants to be? I haven't seen her discuss a goal time but maybe I've missed it.

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Re: Predict Gwen's Chicago Marathon Time [ericMPro] [ In reply to ]
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No stated goal but am assuming faster than this. Especially considering it is only 5 minutes faster than NYC.
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Re: Predict Gwen's Chicago Marathon Time [monty] [ In reply to ]
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monty wrote:
Little wrinkle in the plot line... Gwen just mentioned being sick today in instagram... Interested to see what that's all about //

I mentioned this earlier, it is the only reason for a positive spin on this race, that she did it sick. But that begs the question, why is she racing sick in the first place?? I do understand the pressure for her to get in a qualifying time, and if it was not full blown flu or a terrible cold, but perhaps the beginning or end of an illness, I can see the urge to race anyway.

Whoops missed that. My guesses I can think of

-I think the OQ definitely could serve as motivation. She's now got the flexibility to do whatever she needs to build up to trials. That's considerable peace of mind, I have to imagine.
-Maybe there was a contingency plan in place? I'm not familiar with pro marathoning, could she have entered New York if she had pulled the plug early on today?
-She has talked a lot about one day championship style racing and having to show up to give what you have. Might have been a part to see exactly what she can pull together on less than a perfect day.

Would be fun to be a fly on the wall in a situation like this, because I'm sure there was some good talk within her team

Chasing PB Podcast Latest interview with Eli Hemming on Targeting a US MTR spot in Tokyo
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Re: Predict Gwen's Chicago Marathon Time [B_Doughtie] [ In reply to ]
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This wasn't a big surprise. I thought she'd be in low 2:29-2:32 kind of time I just think the switch has to have some perspective . Gwen is a remarkable athlete but she's way behind he competitors i in regards to background in competitive marathons. Jerry Schumacher is an excellent coach who not only has background with Shalane and Amy Craig but also was Gwen's coach at Wisconsin . Having been around competitive running for 49 years I really thought it was an uphill battle to even make the team . She can still improve we don't know if she went in sick or hurt . Let's see if a spring marathon can yield improvement !
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