Interesting.
I guess Dan made a very detailed calculation knowing exact pressure and possibly exact CdA.

Let's make some projections :

If I adjust my model for Campenaerts (Mexico) with 51.1km/h at 342watts (27Celsius, 630 mmHg, CdA 0,171) :

Going back to sea level (760 mmHg), assuming 380 watt FTP (all other elements unchanged), he would deliver 53.9 km/h.

So, going from sea level to 2000m, roughly :

1) Campenaerts only delivered 90% of the power he can deliver on same duration at sea level (342 vs 380 watts)
2) still, pressure being only 83% (630 vs 760 mmHg)
3) this lead to 1.2km more distance (2.22% more) with 55.1 instead of 53.9 km

Do you know his FTP was 380 ? I saw a presentation where he was 380 at one point and 398 at another. Did he say he was 380 when he did the attempt ?

This is only a personal rough evaluation.
More precisely, I would say near 385w, based on the fact he did 399w NP over 30mn on last Euro TT (3rd), vs 412w for Dowsett (4th).

But of course, this change nearly every day.

You may find this interesting
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_e2RabmGues

You will need to rewind to 0 for the whole thing

I wanted to link to that one too haha, nice one! I seem to recall he stated there that his FTP was just over 400W, around 410W because of the gains he made with the altitude tent experiment?

@Pyrenean Wolf: I sent Dan Bigham a message and the +-340W was his estimate before the hour record attempt happened, the 320-330W was what he calculated after the attempt when he had a better idea about the conditions there so you were right :)

He also told me what John Archibald's CdA is and what he would need at Aguas Calientes, and how much % of FTP John looses in the altitude experiments they've done. I think it will be really interesting once they make their attempts :)

So, I need to guess Archibald CdA :-)

I think Dan Bigham track CdA was 0,168 in 2018.
I guess Archibald is a bit taller, so I would say for track CdA : 0.17 or 0.172 ?

So, to beat Campenaerts record in HotWater (Aquacalientes...) he probably need 335w ?
Not sure what is his sea level FTP however. Probably not too far from 400w :-)

earlier in the thread....

Sorry, I missed that one.

I heard a guy was under 0.16 (0.159 apparently) but apparently he was less than 1.75m (5'9").
John Archibald seems to be taller than that (6' + ?).

Maybe Joeri will give us some hint ;-)

Almost 😉 he said Archibald is touching 0,165 CdA on his track bike. With an air density of 0,94 kg/m^3, which is what he expected at Aguas Calientes, it would mean John only needs 300-310W to break it.

They did experiments in altitude tents a while ago (was in their Instagram stories) where they determined the loss at altitude. For John it was only 7%, they estimate an additional 2-4% because they tested in 22deg C instead of around 30 like in Bolivia.

So assume an FTP of 380-400W, lose 10%, if he can manage 340-360W.. Even if it's "only" 330W, if he can maintain that CdA..

Let's assume FTP 380w, minus 12% : 335w
CdA 0,167 (difficult to stay perfect one hour...), reasonable local pressure, ...

Theoretically he can go 55.5 km

They need to do it quickly.... I guess if Ganna work a bit on his aero, he can beat 56 km :-)

Pacing graph - really impressive effort!

https://twitter.com/...669805622951937?s=20

---

AeroCoach UK
http://www.aero-coach.co.uk

Dowsett just anounced he's having another go at it

https://www.instagram.com/...igshid=12m9vuqxdsjvy

That is awesome. Did Israel Startup Nation renew his contract yet, or is he still shopping himself around. I hope he can take the 55+. Where is he doing this (which velodrome) ?

Manchester velodrome

he said he had secured a contract for 2 years, but hasn't said with who.

Also says it'll be done on a real track bike, not a converted road bike (so presumably not a Factor)

---

My Blog - http://leegoocrap.blogspot.com

Smart move by him. I hardly agree with Wiggins opinion, but I think he is right when he said that once Ganna goes for it, he will push it to 56-57 kph and will be out of reach for a long time. So he is going before him. I don't think he is going to get it though, 55 kph is still a solid performance.

Cool, same velodrome as Obree and Boardman!

I see Dowsett's attempt already on the list on Wikipedia for Dec 19th:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hour_record


Lionel's ride is also on there as is MTM's. How many triathletes are on any Wikipedia page with Eddy Merckx ???? Kudos to Lionel (and I guess Victor Campanaerts is a reformed triathlete too).

He'll certainly have his hands full, but it's tough to say. 55 is definitely a solid number, but Dowsett is the only person (Voigt, and Lionel I suppose excluded) that has done the hour that looked like they went far too conservatively. He may have been very close to Wiggins if he had paced more aggressively then. If he is on similar/better form than that, and has gained a little % in aero/crr, he has a legit shot with a good day.

Ganna does show all the signs of someone that's going to crush it, probably depends a little on Ineos' plans for him and the 4 minute barrier though.

---

My Blog - http://leegoocrap.blogspot.com

I love Dowsett and his videos. It will be fun to see the build. Whether he gets it or not will be of interest because he is smart and a good lad.

If Ganna has no issues post-Covid he will destroy everyone. His track skills, his CdA and his power are untouchable. Look at his Strava.

525 watts for 13 minutes. 495 watts for an hour. 495 watts average. All my best numbers are reported in NP my friends so I'm guessing a bit higher. ;)

I can't imagine that power for any duration. It's no wonder he crushed everyone in TTs. Rohan was still doing all time best powers in these too. Wout was too. Wout did 470 watts for 20 minutes on a recon of Roubaix and Ganna still beat him.

Top Ganna

The Irish rumour is Ineos again. I can't see that though.

Dowsett video just posted. Haha a slightly different approach then Lionel

Saw it as well, interesting that he only pushed 360W at sea level last time and would need around 400W to match or break Campenaerts' record, I guess with favorable air pressure and temperatures.

Given I read somewhere that he did 400W average at the Worlds TT or the national 25 or idk which more recent TT, I'm curious to see how close he can get.

Does anyone know Dowsett's weight? Lionel mentions in the Breakfast with Bob interview that he held 380 watts in his attempt.

It will be interesting how far he gets. He seemed to be pretty unhappy with is season so far (besides his stage win, obviously) but not sure if it's because his numbers just aren't there or something else. He did say that he wouldn't be trying if he didn't think he had a shot but I can't really imagine him saying him going for it but has no shot at the record.

Wondey why Dowsett didn't book a second attempt. Probably easier said than done, from a logistics perspective.

I recall that Rominger did two attempts in 94 (?), first one just to take the record from Indurain 53-54 kph, and then the second attempt about a week later where he took it over 55 kph.

In any case, 55 kph at sea level would definitely get him out of his comfort zone. Been enjoying the hour record performances since the UCI got rid of their stupid "Eddy Merckx" hour record equipment rule.

I THINK Rominger also changed bikes between the two record attemps in two weeks. I believe the second had a front 650 whereas the first one had dual 700's.

Google search shows these images:

Week 1



Week 2