I'm going with 0%

I live here. Look at our data, hospitalizations have been flat. Unless this comes with shutting down bars there's no reason to cancel this thing.

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Washed up footy player turned Triathlete.

I'll take your word on the data, which is great, but it seems less likely it stays that way if you host an Ironman. Unlike the 70.3, I can't imagine it's mostly local folks. Also, flat is good, down is better.

Edit: Also, it's possible Ironman/The city of Tempe learned something about the recent event in Florida that influenced the decision.

Edit #2: From the announcement "after further conversations today with city and health officials following a recent increase in cases across the Tempe region" seems they have different data than you?

I was driving down Mill the other night, "slammed" is the only way to describe it.

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Washed up footy player turned Triathlete.

I withdrew a few weeks ago, because of Covid concerns when my wife visited Tempe and she felt very uncomfortable with a lack of Covid precautions at her hotel. Glad I did!
Also, I thought Ironman treated me very fairly/kindly in giving me a transfer.

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Team Zoot So Cal

Not once this year did I ever say I told you so but...

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Favorite Gear: Dimond | Cadex | Desoto Sport | Hoka One One

This.

Yeah, but you were wrong about IMFL and AZ 70.3, so no victory laps on predictions

True but I was right the other 50 times.

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Favorite Gear: Dimond | Cadex | Desoto Sport | Hoka One One

So, you were right, before you were wrong, and then you were right again?

Your big prediction was no races in 2020. You were incorrect.

Care to look into your crystal ball and tell us what lies ahead in 2021, old wise man?

Buddy when you say every race is unequivocally going to be cancelled and a few races happen, you're 100% wrong. Take the L and move on.

You’ll be butthurt again when one of your races gets canceled. 🤷🏼‍♂️

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Favorite Gear: Dimond | Cadex | Desoto Sport | Hoka One One

You guys crack me up. Sorry that I was only correct like 60 times and wrong three times. That’s a heck of a completion percentage or free throw percentage.

I will try better with my forecast modeling moving forward.

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Favorite Gear: Dimond | Cadex | Desoto Sport | Hoka One One

That's not exactly what I'd call "flat." Though there is a little dip right at the end there, unclear if that's noise or signal. Combined with the skyrocketing case rate, I'd suggest maybe noise.

Data for cases always lags a few weeks because health departments are not necessarily sending in results in real time. Therefore, I bet that spike is only going higher.

I know what was said.

But I think there is more to this than just Covid19.....

Or rather less (or fewer)....

How many people want to race a 82.3% Ironman??

Travel + Covid19 + Cost !!!

How many people would rather transfer to next year?

How many people does Ironman need to make an event profitable?

Yeah, I’m pretty sure that your right. While COVID metrics are a major concern, I’m sure that for the city of Tempe and Ironman the risk was outweighing the reward. I feel for the RD, but I’m sure it wasn’t a total surprise.

3000 cases today w 20,000 tests...

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http://www.TriScottsdale.org

~15% positivity rate es no bueno.

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Favorite Gear: Dimond | Cadex | Desoto Sport | Hoka One One

I think the GMAN deserves to have his "I told you so" moment on this one. Sure, TWO races IMFL and AZ 70.3 happened, but on the whole, the man was correct about races this year.

I was registered for AZ, chose to defer few weeks ago due to travel restrictions, the shortened course, and anticipation of COVID probably getting worse between then and race day. Seeing it cancelled now is a strange feeling - even though I'd deferred I was pleased with the idea that some folks might get a chance to race and do so in a safe (or, as safe as possible...) environment. as was the case with the 70.3. and that was fine by me. But the world is in a different place with cases right now. The decision to cancel the event is 100% the correct one.

I did find it this graphic interesting to watch throughout AZ's spring/summer. ICU bed capacity is never something that seems to have "lots of space" and I suppose that's by design.

I agree. Hospitals aren't designed to lose money. You have enough ICU beds for your baseline daily load, plus enough for some temporary acute disaster, like an earthquake, etc.

There's no "pandemic capacity" designed in.

Extra capacity is designed in during mass casualty planning. It's there, but you just can't and won't see it represented by empty ICU beds and idle ICU staff members.

I know this is semantics sorry.

On the bright side! All those who trained for IMAZ are a shitton fitter now. Keep it up...

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Eric Reid AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio
Aerodynamic Retul Bike Fitting

“You are experiencing the criminal coverup of a foreign backed fascist hostile takeover of a mafia shakedown of an authoritarian religious slow motion coup. Persuade people to vote for Democracy.”

Based on empirical evidence, 0% chance of races in 2021.

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Eric Reid AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio
Aerodynamic Retul Bike Fitting

“You are experiencing the criminal coverup of a foreign backed fascist hostile takeover of a mafia shakedown of an authoritarian religious slow motion coup. Persuade people to vote for Democracy.”

Except mass casualty extra capacity is usually overflowing to med surg and other units.

You can't (easily) do that with COVID or any pandemic with easily communicable disease because you're then having to put full COVID protocol on much wider areas of the hospital, and putting more non-COVID patients at risk.

Any more discussion should probably be LR, though.