Specialized already made their move.
Trek - TBD
Canyon isn't going to change horses in the middle of a streak. They're gaining market share every year while only making 'slight' price changes. If for some reason they decided to change course, another brand would fill the void pretty fast. Maybe QR if they decided to properly go worldwide.

Interesting that they have upped their price for the 9.0 LTD from NZD$14,999 to NZD$15,699 with no apparent spec changes.

One thing I would like to point out that often gets lost in the $/speed calculus: the price difference between something like a QR PR3 with Hed Jets and a TriRig front end and a stock Cervelo P3X buys you a nice chunk of tunnel time at A2. So, in the contest of:

P3X
vs.
PR3 + Hed Jets + TriRig + Tunnel Time

I can tell you which purchase decision will net you a faster bike split and for many people the time difference will not be insignificant.

Btw you can interchange a lot of bikes and components for my QR example. I mean... a Speed Concept frameset (cockpit included) is $3,300.

I paid $3300 for my P3C 2010 frameset, then built it up with hand picked parts & set up. $2800 would have been a nicer option for sure! It's nice not having anyone else own a bike exactly like yours. However, I'm seeing the VALUE in having the same OEM set up overall, if the spec'd parts are actually to my liking quality wise. I'm really like the bars on the Canyon Speedmax SLX or the 51 Speedshop bars. I have not looked too closely at the Cervelo bars as I'm not in the market for a bike until next year. By then, we *may* see a Shimano grouppo more similar to a bolt on version like the SRAM (and 12 speed).

Exactly. I point out how halo products are extremely common in marketing and what I get back is two people saying "maybe, but for not the product I like." lol. Yeah, and btw pricing stuff at $**.99 isn't a trick either to make the cost seem a lot lower than just a penny short of the higher number. I'm not making this up; these are known and proven tactics that work on everybody all day long.

People love comparing, but the #1 thing they hate is being wrong. They will talk circles justifying why they aren't and what is obvious and commonplace simply doesn't apply to them.

On the other hand, you objectively took products more closely priced to their legitimate costs and assembled them into a bike just as fast at half the $$$. Nice work!

Based on your assessment, Cervelo is “anchoring” the high end of their price point with the P5X/P3X so that when consumers look for the “middle choice” P3 disc they see $5,000 as the middle choice rather than... let’s say $3,500-4,000. Sound about right?

I could see that working with a high volume product like a road or a mountain bike but considering the volumes of TT bikes sold it seems wiser to just do what you have to do to keep/gain market share.... and high priced halo products is not the right strategy IMO.

In the MTB world the Trek Fuel EX 9.9 is a pretty good example of anchoring the high end of the price spectrum: $10,000 for 130/130 26lb trail bike with a fancy shock. Go down to the “9.8” gain about 1.5lbs of weight, lose the fancy shock, and lose $4,500 from the price. Go down to the “8” and you gain another couple of pounds and lose another $2,300 off the price. Three bikes, two sets of tooling, and one R&D investment (geometry, styling, rear shock, suspension tuning). The last time we had a similar setup in tri was with the Speed Concept 2.5/7/9 with the 7 being the middle choice. One R&D cost to develop the aerofoil shapes, two sets of tooling, three frames and price points all the way from $2,000 to $10,000.

Anyways, I’ve said my piece. Halo bikes are fine and the P3X is a good looking bike but Cervelo is going the wrong way if they want to keep their market share.

It's not the first time they have done that. Market rules. They only have to be the less expensive of the bunch.

When was the last time they had a price increase? That's just a 4.6%. Unless they do that every ~2-3 years, they are actually giving you a price drop in real inflation-adjusted dollars. NZ inflation has been around 1.5-2%

Maybe I missed it, but are the actual weight figures published, between P5X/P3X/P5D? Are we talking ounces or pounds here?

About 1.3lbs Delta between each it appears.

Only one is aerogeeks that publishes these for some reason.

P5D - 8.4kg/18.5lbs
P3X - 9.7 Inc flat kit(s), so 9.45kg/20.8lbs
P5X - 9.96kg/22lbs

P3x estimated based on flat kit appearing to include 2 tubes, 2 canisters etc. Poss the other kit also.

Have heard P5x is 10kg without flat kit and 10.4kg with flat kit filled similar to above P3x contents. This confirmed in P5x thread and also aerogeeks 10kg without flat kit.

That would put P3x at a 0.7kg ish lighter which sounds right as the spec sheet has all the ancillaries at near 0.4-0.5kg reduction plus frame/fork 250g ish.

based on that article, think we don't know for sure if the 9.72kg reported for the P3x actually included the flat kit, as it mentioned "maybe".

"We weighed a complete Ultegra Di2 build (the second one you will read about down below) including cages, storage boxes, and maybe a flat kit in at 9.72kg."


so if there was no flat kit included, we are looking at only a 0.24kg difference between the P5x and P3x.

But there also be a delta due to weighed P5x being eTap and P3X ultegra di2.

Halo effect does not care about volume or size of the market, its all about how do you implement the strategy. Halo effect is not about market share(in terms of units sold), its about Branding, pricing and stablish a comparative point of view that allow you to sell AND to benefit your brand(this is hard to quantify in numbers). Is it the best strategy for cervelo? is a good strategy? Hard to say for now.I think CErvelo should improve the p5x and use their competitive advantage(owned factories and all that that coem from the owner).P3x is a "lesson learned" ready to be aplied to the p5x

Yes I was extrapolating but doing so on probability.

Pics show a flat kit all be it not clear if in the one they weighed.

Weight savings of frame and accessories is 468g over P5x.

One being Ultegra (P3X) and the other probably Dura-Ace (P5X), probably there is more than 500g on the frame only ?

Based on the areogeeks article, there would be a total of 430g difference between a medium P5X and P3X (254g for frame only, plus the difference in handlebar, riser, seatpost and bento weights)

Key for me is that that weight is largely coming from the top of the bike. So contributes not just to being lighter, then would align with the handling improvements.

So looking at the various aero data charts released by Cervelo comparing the old (rim brake) P5 to the P5X, P5d and P3X - all in "Tri heavy / Ironman" setup - I've extrapolated the following drag averages:

P5: 0g drag
P3X: -4g
P5d: -17g
P5X: -31g

(Note there is no chart comparing the P5 to P3X, but one of them show the P3X to be +27g compared to the P5X, which is where I get the P3X at -4g from).

The total delta between the slowest (P5) and fastest (P5X) is roughly 1 min over an Ironman.

Based on this:

The P5 and P3X are within the margin of error the same aero-wise, but the P3X has a substantial weight disadvantage. The only reason to buy a P3X over the old P5 is if you really want disk brakes and the integrated storage options (which are very good considerations), but comes at a weight penalty of 1kg+.

The P5d is probably the best combination of aero, weight and stiffness disk brakes and storage - this would be my #1 choice.

P5X still rules the roost in aero, roughly 30s faster than the P5d (but at a substantial weight disadvantage) and 1 min over the P3X (but 430g heavier than P3X). Personally, I would actually probably still choose a P5X over the P3X if I could get one at a good price (which is now very likely!). And I think it still looks better than the P3X...

Indeed, and you can lose another >100g changing out the stock saddle, but I suppose that applies to both...

^^^ this is assuming you can't optimize your position on P5 (rim, P5-3 model) by replacing Aduro with other aeroba, but other than that, conclusions are pretty clear.

---

----------------------------
Need more W/CdA.

Actually, I think it goes even further and assumes you make a concerted effort to de-optimize your P5 by taping 12 gels to it etc

My Question is the new P3X better than the P5X (2018 one with mechanic Brakes)?
What would you buy if you had the money?
Thanks

P3x
- approx 0.5kg lighter
- stiffer
- poss handles bit better
- better brakes (how much depends)
- cheaper new by 2k ish

P5x
- split bars for easier packing as standard (also fit p3x if wanting)
- poss better wheels depending on spec and opinion/preference
- new model comes with Biknd bag (p3x tbc)
- slightly better aero but not noticeable realistically

Basically it's down to personal preference.
P3x is the next version and improved tech, but p5x still has its pros.

Also worth considering if the biknd bag is coming with the p5x that you are looking at as mixed reports on if included with p3x and cervelo site suggests not.

I would lean towards p3x due to newer tech and lighter/stiffer with same benefits.
Not much cheaper when bag and poss split bars are added if needed though .

Completely agree.... seems silly to loose the typical P3 group of buyers

I am completely with you...

But I think the point is (and Slowman says as much in his article) is that this is not a new P3. It is a P5X v2.0, so it is actually aimed at the P5 / P5x buyer group.

The P3 buyers can still buy the P3 (or P2), albeit that those models are still rim brakes. So Cervelo has not alienated those buyers. At some point Cervelo will release a new P3 with disk brakes that will be at a discount to the PX line, for the typical P3 buyer...