Greggor wrote:
Alistair Brownlee can run down in the 29min 10K range in ITU race after 1.5km open water swim and 40km bike. McMillan running calculator says that would put him down around 2:16. I am presuming he could do a little better without the swim/bike first, hence if focused on open marathon could get down close to the 2:10. Andreas Raelert and a number of similar running talent would be down there if they focused on a straight up marathon. I would still say, however, many would think that they could probably get there, but a lot fewer could - much must go right to achieve it. Likely many could go sub 2:20 if they focused, only a few sub 2:10 - but I am sure some could. When I say focused, I mean if they took the year or two of primarily run training (no way 2:10 off of just IM training).
Sorry, but I will have to respectfully disagree. First, I could only find Alistair's results in 29 mid-high range. There is a huge, huge gap between that and the 27's you'll have to run at an elite 10k level. You may think that it's a pretty small drop, but it's not. Let's take a look at a decent U.S. pro runner (note: not world-class), Scotty Bauhs.
http://www.mammothtrackclub.com/speaker/526-Scott-Bauhs. His 10K PR is 27:48, or what I'd imagine Alistair could wish for on his best day after years of dedicated run training. Scotty, unfortunately, hasn't ran a marathon, but does have a half-marathon PR of 1:03:04. Flying right? That translates to a 2:13 open marathon, which puts him at somewhere around 10-15 in major marathons (e.g., London, Chicago). And then gap between 2:13 and 2:10 is crazy hard. This is all assuming he can successfully handle marathon training (see Ritzenhein, Dathan)
What others have said is true. There is far more money and prestige in open road racing. If they could do it, they would. I would guess that 2:15-ish is where the best of the best would end up. Stellar times, but decidedly "sub-world-class". I don't know the U.K. running scene, but those times would not put you in contention to be on the U.S. Olympic team, much less medal.