I'll give 5 to one Ledecky wins the 1500 and 800. Even money on the 400 and 200.

Dressel takes the 100 fly, but gets upset by a tenth in the 100 free(not really, but possible)

Michael breaks Lochte's record in the 200IM, finally figures out the pacing by final time.

I think the US upsets the 4x100 free and 4x200 free relays, as I believe they are not favored at the moment. Gonna be hard to beat them in the medley relay with two world record holders and possibly next best filling it out. I think Andrew goes 57 low on that relay(breast), while Caleb goes 48 mid for the fly. Murphy gets close to the WR on the leadoff, and the anchor goes 46 low to win it easily..

All I got for now, except we should be able to win the mixed relay with several different combinations..

Over/under 4.5 gold medals for Ledecki?

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80/20 Endurance Ambassador

I love Ledecky, but I’m taking the under on that for sure. The Americans are a long shot in the free relays, and Titmus is flirting with World Records in the 200 & 400. I’d take the “under” at 2.5 golds for Ledecky. I wouldn’t put much money on the “over” at 1.5.

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"They're made of latex, not nitroglycerin"

Huge upset today. Daiya Sato failed to advance to the 400IM finals. He was into the final 50m of the semis with a full body length and ended up 5th. Reigning World Champ in the 400IM and 200IM...I am personally dissappointed as I was looking forward to watching him race tonight (Canada time, Sunday morning Japan):

https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/...final-124543654.html

Watching that race I think he thought he still had top 3 in the heat, and couldn't see the guys on both of his outside because the guys right next to him swarmed him. If that was the case, he is going to be really pissed at himself, but of course will be his fault entirely for easing up just that tiny bit...

What a fast heat and lead up to the final though. It is almost anyones race too, no real stand out looks to go 4;05...

(Forgive my ignorance, and weak searching skills, but is this "upset" thread the official Slowtwitch Olympic Swimming discussion thread, he asked, nervously, and with some resignation?)

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I only swim.
I used to run. (31:09 10k)
I never did Triathlon.
Sue me.

If you can get good odds on David Popovici in the 100M free, he looked like the real deal at European Juniors and even though his times there were scary, he might still be under the radar since he's a 16 year old from Romania instead of a bigger swimming power. Could be a player in the 200 free too.

Yep.

https://swimswam.com/...im-i-made-a-mistake/

(Can we rename this thread? Or shall I make a new one that is about more than betting?) :)

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I only swim.
I used to run. (31:09 10k)
I never did Triathlon.
Sue me.

I suggest start a new thread for general Olympics swim discussion and keep this for upsets. Upsets seem like a valid standalone topic.

Ok. I'll do it! I just wanted to make sure I didn't miss something.

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I only swim.
I used to run. (31:09 10k)
I never did Triathlon.
Sue me.

I'll take your money! (I mean, I'll take those bets).

I'd favour Ledecky in the 1500 & 800, but 5:1 is generous.

In the 4 and 2 I think Arnie Titmus is going to "upset" the Ledecky fans, but on form you should see it coming.

So, that's the first beer you owe me. (I recollect betting 4 beers to win 12).
On to the next. Should be a good one.

Wrong on 4x100. US won't win 4x200 either.

I am picking Oleksiak in the 200 Free...

4x200 is Canada vs Australia

Ledecky wins the 1500 and the 800 is a toss up.

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___________________________________________
http://en.wikipedia.org/...eoesophageal_fistula
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cerebral_palsy
2020 National Masters Champion - M40-44 - 400m IM
Canadian Record Holder 35-39M & 40-44M - 200 m Butterfly (LCM)

Could be wrong, but I don't think he was referring to the women.

Guess that might be the case...

Canadian men get the banana for the best collective RT in the 4x100 Free...


Yuri had 0.00... 0.91 combined

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___________________________________________
http://en.wikipedia.org/...eoesophageal_fistula
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cerebral_palsy
2020 National Masters Champion - M40-44 - 400m IM
Canadian Record Holder 35-39M & 40-44M - 200 m Butterfly (LCM)

I am only giving longshots / good odds:

Betting against Dressel is probably dumb BUT...

I think I saw Milak at +340 on the 100 fly. That is decent value. Milak will beat Dressell sometime in the next 3 years. It *could* be this year.

If you can put money on Manadau in the 50 at 3 x 1 do it. I sas 15 x 1 on a site and I think that is crazy. He went a 47.6 on the relay and when he is on he is incredible. He will also be way more rested the Dressel for the race.

Kyle Chalmers in the 100 free. 46.4 split with a slow start. He should be even money but I am thinking he is not. Any odds to your favor and it is a good bet.

Bobby Finke was not tapered for Trials. 1500 is pretty stacked but if you can get 8x1 or better on him I think that is good value. Smith was one of the few who dropped time in the 400 and they are training partners. I trust Troy as much as any coach to deliver athletes ready to swim.

Alright, you put money on any of those I bet one works.

Prediction : Masse takes the 100 Back

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___________________________________________
http://en.wikipedia.org/...eoesophageal_fistula
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cerebral_palsy
2020 National Masters Champion - M40-44 - 400m IM
Canadian Record Holder 35-39M & 40-44M - 200 m Butterfly (LCM)

I am not a better but I'd put that at less than 3 x 1 (IE of the 3 she is the least likely).

However Canada IS having a good meet so maybe...maybe I am wrong.

I think Smith wins by more than .5 I saw a much more relaxed swimmer than what I saw at US Trials last night...

I agree Smith looks better but I have money on the Aussie girl in this race. I expect it to be like the 100 fly finish. the 3 of them all 57.6-7ish

last night I had Mckeon to medal in the 100fly and another bet on her to win. Netted a small profit. Jacoby to win her heat which she barely did. USA men relay had them to win not great odds though. Losses were betting on the Korean and Romanian kids to win their heats in the 2free. I figured that they would just just blast it and not conserve any energy because they are inexperienced. I have a bet on the Korean kid to win it all but it looks like Duncan Scott has a lock on this thing. I have a bunch of other bets pending the rest of the week. Edit i forgot my pick on Murphy looks pretty good right now....$50 to pay $335.

The question of the day is Lily King? She looks pretty vulnerable if she doesnt go 104low.

Boom. That's 2 beers you owe me, Monty. Arnie 1st & Ledecky 5th.
I'm looking forward to the 1500. I'll be rooting for Ledecky, even if it costs me 6 beers.

The U.S. men's 800 free relay failed to medal for the first time in the 25 Olympiads that the US has contested this event, i.e. excluding the 1980 Moscow Games boycott. The 25 Olympiads stretch all the way back to 1908, which was the first time this event was on the program. So in effect this is the first time ever that the U.S. has not medaled. I knew we prob would not win the gold but I distinctly recall Monty and a few others saying that we would rally for at least silver or bronze.

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"Anyone can be who they want to be IF they have the HUNGER and the DRIVE."

I knew we prob would not win the gold but I distinctly recall Monty and a few others saying that we would rally for at least silver or bronze. //

If you remember me saying that, then you should also recall I also predicted that Caleb would be on that A relay too. They most certainly would have been swimming for the gold with him on it, at best he gets the entire 4 seconds on his own, at worst he enables the others to not have to over swim their legs and blow sky high, and makes them faster too.


I will never understand that decision to leave the fastest freestyler in the world(and ever really figuring in sets) off that team. The only explanation I would accept is that if Caleb himself asked or told the coaches he did not want to swim..IT will go down as the worst decision made at this swimming games...

This is why I hate gambling. All my picks were spot on… they just didn’t deliver. If Finke and Man get Silver tonight then all my upsets… ended up 2nd.

Did anyone else catch the look in Dressels face after the 100 fly? “I’ll never beat him again…” was in his eyes.