JasoninHalifax wrote:

If that's the same time trial as the guys did the 4x1, I think the coach doing the timing might've had a quick finger.

Ehhh, so maybe he went a 52.1, not a 51.9. Oh well. I guess maybe his chances of going under 51 are only 50/50.

Have you heard about the potential mishap with the US and relay only swimmers? The FINA rule says, "If an NOC enters relay-only swimmers for a specific event, these swimmers must swim either in the heat or final of that relay event. Should a relay-only swimmer not compete, this will lead to the disqualification of the respective team."

The US entered all 6 guys and girls as relay-only in all 3 relays. The US assumption was that you only need to swim ONE relay to be cleared, not specifically every relay you entered. But the rule says it is specific to each event. This would mean, for example, Clark Smith HAS TO SWIM the 400 medley and 400 free relay. Here is the official entry sheet, notice no other countries entered all their relay-only guys this way:

http://www.fina.org/...iles/men_final_5.pdf

I like Ledecky's chances in the 400 and 800 : )

I'll go out on a limb.

Phelps

More specifically - he wins more medals than 1/3 of the nations playing.

Something is wrong b/c they have the exact same 6 guys listed for both 4 x 1 and 4 x 2 relays, and that they are all Relay Only (RO). I did not see any listing for the medley relay???

No that is the point Eric. The US has screwed up their entries. They misunderstood the rule and didn't seek clarification before entering. (The 400 medley is on the last page. Not sure what you don't see). Same 6 guys

OK, I found the medley on that last page, not sure how I missed it before. In any case, it appears that ALL of the countries' entries for all three relays are coded RO, so it would seem to me that perhaps the error is actually FINA's error???

Men's 100M is too close to call, though I am predicting a USA repeat.

Eric: do you see how Magnussen (AUS) is listed as a RO swimmer for the 400 free relay. That means he HAS to swim the relay in either prelims or finals. Do you see how Magnussen is NOT listed as an alternate in the 400 Medley Relay. This means he does not HAVE to swim the 400 medley relay. I am unclear if - by not having his name on the list - he cannot swim the 400 medley, but lets ignore that because at this point that isn't pressing. The US put every RO swimmer on the list for every specific relay. Australia and every other country only put them on the specific relay they are scheduled to swim. The US thinks that - as long as say Clark Smith swims one of the relays he is listed under - then they are in guidelines. But the rule states - quite clearly - otherwise.

Going out on a limb here... I bet the U.S. puts whoever it wants in whatever relay it wants.

In general, though others can chime in:

You MEDAL in swimming, you PODIUM in Triathlon.

(US-focused) Men random predictions:
1. The US will be far faster in the 4x100fr than people think but the French will win by a whisker again. Vaunted Aussies stuck with the bronze.
2. US will go 1-2 in the 100bk.
4. (G)Larkin - (S)Murphy in the 200bk.
5. Phelps will win the 100 fly but Cseh will win the 200 fly.
6. Florent wins the 50 but Adrian medals.
7. Dressel 47.8 100 free, doesn't medal. McEvoy wins it in a squeaker over Adrian.
8. No US medals in the 100br, Peaty FTW (duh).
9. 200br - (G)Koch - (S) Prenot, Cordes doesn't medal in any individual event.
10. US wins the 4x100med and 4x200fr.
11. Lochte wins the 200IM over Phelps
12. Kalisz bronze in the 400IM, Seto wins.
13. Sun wins the 200, 400 and mile (if he's swimming it) and pisses everyone off.

(US-focused) women random predictions
1. The US will be far faster in the 4x100fr than people think but the Aussies will win by a country mile. US gets silver.
2. US will not medal in the 100bk, Seebohm wins it.
4. (G) Iron Lady - (S) DiRado 200bk.
5. 100fl- (G) Sjostrom - (S) Worrell 100 fly, no idea who wins the 200 fly but there will be no US finalists (!).
6. Weitzel breaks 24 in the 50 but doesn't medal, C1 wins it easily
7. 100fr (G) C1 - (S) C2, no US medals.
8. King wins the 100br, Ruta gets second
9. 200br - no clue, weird unpredictable field. US doesn't final (!)
10. US wins the 4x100med and 4x200fr.
11. Hosszu wins the 200IM, DiRado gets second
12. Belmonte wins the 400IM, Hosszu second.
12. Ledecky wins the 200, 400, 800 and saves the day for the relatively weak US woman's team.

Eric: do you see how Magnussen (AUS) is listed as a RO swimmer for the 400 free relay. That means he HAS to swim the relay in either prelims or finals. Do you see how Magnussen is NOT listed as an alternate in the 400 Medley Relay. This means he does not HAVE to swim the 400 medley relay. I am unclear if - by not having his name on the list - he cannot swim the 400 medley, but lets ignore that because at this point that isn't pressing. The US put every RO swimmer on the list for every specific relay. Australia and every other country only put them on the specific relay they are scheduled to swim. The US thinks that - as long as say Clark Smith swims one of the relays he is listed under - then they are in guidelines. But the rule states - quite clearly - otherwise.