Where are we talking about here

The guess needs two key inputs: local political climate and trends of the key local coronavirus metrics.

Sorry, St. Petersburg, Florida.

Well here is the whole state of Fla and what is happening Covid wise, check out the new cases graph. So my guess would be no if science is being used, but of course the political will at the very top there does not use science in making their decisions, so maybe?

https://www.worldometers.info/...navirus/usa/florida/

Would I go to that race, 100% not..

I would vote pretty high.

Ron DeSantis is pretty much kicking major butt in managing the CV outbreak. He has the political support and success underpinning him. Locally, Rick Kriseman has been reluctant to go gonzo around lockdown, so he seems more likely to allow events.

On the down side, Florida's new case rates have been trending up recently (deaths have remained flat, which is more significant). That is partially due to much more testing. And, those cases are mostly happening in south Florida. Pineallas county has been doing better than most.

I give you 75% probability of a race.

Pretty high. Considering JAX is likely holding a GOP convention in August it would be hard to believe they cancel any events in the state now.

I'm in Texas and have my first race coming up in two weekends. It's a short cross country mountain bike race, TT style. One loop around a 9 mile track, sending off one rider at a time. I'm almost positive it will go forward. Never done a MTB race before so should be interesting.

Local races 7/16 and 8/8 already cancelled. I would be surprised to see any triathlon in Ohio this year.

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I wanna go fast!

Which year?

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Take a short break from ST and read my blog:
http://tri-banter.blogspot.com/

NASCAR is going to have fans in the stands this weekend in Miami - so I'd bet yes.

For 3rd straight day, Covid-19 related hospitalization is all the high in Texas. Races can happen, but it's not safe out there.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Not looking great for a race or a race car race in those states

-150

On the down side, Florida's new case rates have been trending up recently (deaths have remained flat, which is more significant). //

I have to assume that you know that deaths trail new cases by at least 4 to 6 weeks? So the spike in new cases now is going to add to a lot more deaths in a month or two. Will they sell be the more significant number then too?


You guys, Texas, and unfortunately CA where I happen to reside, are doing a horrible job right now in containing the virus. New cases are exploding each day, and new daily high numbers are being hit over and over now. And from what I have read, your state is underreporting cases and deaths, attributing out of state cases caught there to somewhere else. It makes sense if you are the top cheerleader of open er up states, the lowest case and death count you can squeeze out of the stats will be what you go for...

I am not from Florida, but I am watching it with great interest. I have a deep background in data analytics mixed in with almost a decade of work with the CDC. So, I know a little bit more than a typical civilian about how the disease is and should be analyzed.

Deaths have historically trailed new daily cases by 1-2 weeks. I did some analytics at the national and state level for personal curiosity.

There are numerous misconceptions about what is good or bad in the numbers. Cases alone is a borderline useless metric. In Florida's situation, a significant cause for the case spike is a recent testing increase. You cannot look at cases in isolation. Check out the testing chart below from Johns Hopkins. The one concerning point of their chart is that the % positive increased along with testing volume. That is counter to what is happening in most areas. Regardless, a lot of states are seeing more cases because of more testing, but they are not seeing a corresponding climb is deaths, because they are catching less serious cases.

Florida is one of the poster children for excellence in handling this. Florida has a significant number of elderly and retirement homes, and yet their elderly death rate is well below national average. (FTR, I am pretty confident that NY is lying about their retirement home death rate-- theirs makes no sense.) Florida is better than most of the country in deaths per million and cases per million despite having a very large high-risk population. There only weak metric is testing. Though they have done the 4th most tests in the country, they are near the bottom in tests per million.

Texas and California are both also doing very well overall. What throws people off is that they have huge populations, but they are phenomenal when looking at cases and deaths per million. And like Florida, CA and TX are very low in the proportion of high-risk deaths-- that is probably why there total numbers are so good.

Another major misconception is that the virus can be contained at this stage. It was beyond containment since January. (First community spread was speculated in February, but by that time, it was game over.) The virus will run its natural course until we introduce a vaccine. There is a misconception that the lockdown measures are curative; they are not. The only serve to delay the inevitable. The key to the delay is avoiding overwhelming care. We are not saving anyone's grandma by doing the interventions-- we are merely delaying her death by a few months. This kind of sounds negative, but it is not. It is the power of nature doing its natural thing without limits: the disease will spread and kill until it reaches its natural saturation point or we vaccinate.

The reason I am interested in Florida is that they are a great leading indicator for the nation. If they continue on their relatively mild trend while reopening, then it is very encouraging for the rest of us.

In fairness, only 1,000 fans are going to be there in a place that holds like 50,000.

And Talladega will only have 5,000 in a place that holds like 150,000.

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Favorite Gear: Dimond | Cadex | Desoto Sport | Hoka One One

Yeah, I’m trying to figure out what numbers people are looking at for Texas. I monitor the numbers in Tarrant County (Ft Worth area) where I live and obviously the numbers are going up but the curve has substantially flattened (ie cases “only” doubling evey 36 days now) as was the goal in March. My specific city of ~25,000 people has 30 total cases (18 recovered) and no deaths.

What stats are other looking at to make them think Texas is doing so poorly?

I think it is just simpleton idiocity or intentional malice. Texas is the second most populous state in the nation. So, looking at absolute cases and deaths without indexing by population is the likely mistake. And, I think it is intensional in many situations.

The top three most populated states in the country have proportionally some of the fewest cases and deaths in the nation. Yet they are doing poorly?

Edit: My “sImpelling idiocity or intentional malice” comment is directed toward how national media outlets like CNN, NYT, WP, NBC, etc. are reporting about this.

I live in Tampa and believe that it is highly likely. The three upcoming local races that will test the guidelines are:

27 Jun - Clermont, Sommer Sports
11 Jul - Fort Desoto, Multirace
18 Jul - Fort Desoto, Thunderbolt Multisport

So two different locations with three different race directors. All 3 RDs are ready to go. As long as their permits are not pulled, each will go ahead with the race. I'm entered in the Clermont race and Fred Sommer has already sent out notice of changes that will be made to adhere to the USAT guidelines for racing in the COVID area. I think the guidelines are a huge fun killer, but are acceptable in the short run.

Will I race? Yes.

This is not true. Public health measures (social distancing, masks, suspension of highest-risk activities, testing, contact tracing, etc.) can successfully get R0 below 1 with much less than full population exposure, as in much of Western Europe and also in parts of the US that were hardest-hit early on. Cases have declined markedly in these regions and it's not inevitable that they need to go back up and kill 5% of the grandmas who are still alive if some combination of public health measures can maintain R0 below 1 and travel from other active areas does not seed too many new cases. Lockdown measures not only prevent healthcare systems from being overwhelmed, they also buy us time to figure out more about how Covid-19 spreads, what activities are truly most risky, and thus increase our chances of being able to keep R0 below 1 without a fully shuttered economy. Yes, a vaccine would be a nice shiny silver bullet, but it undermines public health precautions to say that everyone will get the disease in the absence of an effective vaccine.

Total daily new cases, and the timeseries of it? It's not as though the state is doing that poorly compared to, say NY in April, and on a per-capita basis things look relatively mild, but still...

Deaths have been pretty flat for the past two months at about 30/day which is not bad by US and international standards especially for the size of the state, but cases have continued to increase (likely in part due to more testing). That doesn't sound like a lot of deaths but 30/day is 10k/year and showing no signs of stopping. Seems to me like we could snuff out cases entirely in regions where prevalence is low (and then truly reopen things there), rather than going back to business-as-usual early and sustaining a low-level outbreak that puts many people at risk of death and also risks serious flare-ups and second waves at a later date.

I haven't signed up for Fort Desoto yet but I will.

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"They know f_ck-all over at Slowtwitch"
- Lionel Sanders

I read just today that in northern Italy 57% of the population is testing positive for antibodies and that region is very near herd immunity. Cases are declining rapidly in that region simply because the virus is running out of new hosts.

Regardless, the races in Florida are OPTIONAL. Those who believe that racing outdoors is risky can continue to stay home.

Not at all. The disease will run to its natural saturation point sooner or later. The interventions affect the timing more than the eventual outcome. If we sustained the total lockdown, it might take years for the disease to run its course. If we moderately reopen, maybe that happens in a couple years. If we engage in full send mosh pits, maybe we get there by the end of the year.