I'm signed up for it as well. No inside information but I am 99% sure it will not be happening in June. Later in the year would be hard as well with the Ironman Tremblant in late August. I'm leaning towards it not happening this year.

This thread does not think probability is high.

https://forum.slowtwitch.com/forum/Slowtwitch_Forums_C1/Triathlon_Forum_F1/Oh%2C_woe_is_us._The_sad_beaver_(Canadian)_thread_P7488907

It's really pathetic of Ironman to drag the decision out this long. Last year it was announced on April 10th that the event would not take place. Sure we're vaccinating and things are hopefully headed in the right direction but there is zero chance of this event taking place.

  
The 70.3 is officially cancelled according to the city

While the full is not officially cancelled, the city said it will probably be. They say to check back in July

Where's the source that the 70.3 has been cancelled and the IM probably cancelled? A google search isn't coming up with much

In the Quebec triathlon FB group, the administrator (a very reliable guy) posted correspondence with the city

He also says to wait for the letter from WTC and not to defer immediately as it seems it will limit future options.

Thanks for the info. Too bad that its being (again) cancelled, though for the 70.3 the writing has been on the wall for a little while anyway.

Got the feeling that things will be different a month later... but June is a little tight.
(Other than the fact that pools have been closed for almost 6 months over here)

Any word on IMMT Full going on? Fingers crossed, but not holding my breath.

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Tough Times Don't Last, Tough People Do.

You can see total cases in Quebec here:

https://www.google.com/...EQ4dUDCA4&uact=5

3.8M Quebecois have received first dosage or 42 percent:

https://www.quebec.ca/...-19-vaccination-data

Yep,

It take two weeks for the vaccines and Canada vaccinating 0.8%/d of the population... so in 6 weeks could have 60-70% of population with an effective first dose... Thus i will not be surprise if people could drink a beer in a bar with very few restriction during THAT weekend.... but maybe the one after.

Anyway, i think 6 weeks is a little short for such an event (if only it was 1 month later)

I really don't think that would matter, which you'll see when IMMT is cancelled as well.

Political decisions in Canada seems to generally work like this right now:

1. You don't do anything and wait until actual data proves out what you knew was going to happen even though there is already similar data and results in other parts of the world where something has proven out with data. Better to wait till it also proves itself out here

In fairness to Quebec their night time curfews have worked much better than the silliness in Ontario. Quebec has kept a few things open in the day, while keeping people out of each others homes at night and has moved the other way from Ontario, whereas going into the second wave Quebec was worse.

One thing coming out of third wave that is going for us is a combo of better weather, more people vaccinated at least with first round and less kids in school across the country and on remote learning. So here in Ontario Doc's are saying, "we can't open up till cases drop below 1000 per day" but they are forgetting coming out of second wave (well really the second and third wave is the same wave its just lifting restrictions early) there were barely no vaccines and bad weather. Coming out of second wave there were vaccines in the arms of old and you are seeing this resulting in no deaths for the old and low case counts for the old. Coming out of this wave, the vaccines are in the young too (at least first shot and that's enough to dramatically move the needle). So we can expect to see as you have said a dramatic decline but because politicians won't do anything based on that happening elsewhere in the world, we will have to wait for it to actually happen here

There will be no planning for anything at a political level even knowing that numbers and hospitalizations will drop. Vaccinations will have their 1-2 months lag really moving the titanic, then after that we have the 2 month lag of changes in restrictions by location and politics. But we could be planning NOW what exactly will be done on June 15th, July 15th, Aug 15th assuming certain numbers shake out. This is not that hard to plan for publicly and set machinery in motion (ASSUMING SOME NUMBERS GET TO CERTAIN POINTS BY THEN).

It is the hesitency to actually set any plans knowing we will get to certain points that limits businesses and individuals to commit to anything.

But just as an FYI, if you check hotels the weekend of the 70.3 in Tremblant, prices are cheap. Weekend of 140.6 they are still high, so I suppose enough people are counting on August.

I've read posts from folks like you all over here and facebook that for the past year have claimed that things will look so much better in one month, etc.

You make it sound like because of some graphs, health authorities and governments have a magic crystal ball to know everything will be wonderful in 2 months. Well they don't. And right now hospitals all over Quebec and Ontario are under strain. What health authority in their right mind would offer a guarantee to a race director that medical personnel will be available this Summer for a large recreational event???
What government in their right mind, that currently has curfews and schools closed, would go ahead and guarantee a race permit for the Summer?

So many people have their heads buried in the sand......

Also, for folks that aren't aware:
- Ontario/Quebec border is closed to non-essential travel
- Atlantic Canadians can't travel within their own provinces, never mind the rest of the country
- Canada/US border is closed to non-essential travel, and it has been made very clear that this will not change for several months.

Agreed, people from Ontario will be lucky to even be able to travel to Quebec at the end of June let alone race. It would appear that Ford and Legault are going to dig their heels in until the majority of the population have been vaccinated.

By the way, I totally get the border between Quebec and Ontario. I live right close to the border and can't even cross it today. But today is not 6, 10, 14 weeks from now.

I agree that it is entirely possible that the overall situation -might- look better 10 weeks from now. But that is too late for race directors to wait for approval/medic resources, and governments aren't going to consider giving out those sorts of permits/resources until those milestones have actually happened.
Of course just my .02 I suppose. :)

You are claiming that people have heads buried in the sand and this is your choice.

What is DIFFERENT TODAY compared to what you have read in social media for a year, is that there were no vaccinations in arms of people in Canada previously.

So we can plan as if no one is vaccinated or will be, or we can plan as if they are and will be.

There is plenty of data from around the world to show what is possible when sufficient % is vaccinated even with one shot. It is perfectly OK for someone to ignore, that and just wait for it to happen as most politicians will generally choose to. I accept this will happen.

I agree, by the time things look better even if that is in only 4 weeks (and it will be better in 4 weeks, just not good enough), or 10 weeks, it won't be early enough first for politicians to make modifications on restrictions and race directors to make plans.

I wish the government would ease up, no one wants these events to happen more than I! And I do firmly believe it is perfectly safe to hold these outdoor events. Securing medical personnel for June....thats a tough one. For August I think it would be fine. But yeah, just not gonna happen, and it sucks.

Sure, vaccines in arms will help open things up sooner than later as cases hopefully start to drop off but a reduction in cases in ICU will need to happen. Hospitals are still at full capacity with most beds taken up by Covid patients.

My wife is a nurse in a long term care facility and has access to the data (bed numbers) at the local hospitals and things are not good.

Yeah, I guess my thought is we need these numbers to come down and come down really fast to have ENOUGH TIME for political frameworks to kick in. Ideally in Quebec these numbers come down big time before St Jean Baptiste weekend because Premier Legault is going to be itching to be able to announce good news by that date. Whether that happens or not, depends on as many of the population as possible getting vaccinated and behaving (and govt doling out vaccines as fast as possible).

There's also the knock-on effects of the Ville de Mont-Tremblant and the race organization trying to anticipate this. Even if Legault (eventually) gives the green light, the fact that there's some uncertainty around it getting volunteers, resources, etc together now means that there's another hurdle to clear. Is the town going to want to organize volunteers now, set up road closures, etc now if its not 100% locked-in?

Any updates? Less than 6 weeks away.